Trade chips replaced in-house = Salary Relief

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If you think one guy makes a difference then we should expect to be in it. Would be pretty epic to go from 95-100 wins to no contending, especially for the type of young team we have. If we aren't in the race then I'd be glad we didn't spend the money. I dont want to do nothing but I don't want to get locked into a long term contract without an obvious need. The track record of pitchers on 4-5 year deals is not good. That being said I would be interested in Ohtani if he might bet on himself for a two year deal. Too good of an opportunity to pass up. But I am not going to approach the market as if we need a starter.

The 2014 is an example of a team that is exactly the example you say would be epic but hey, let’s overlook actual facts and actual recent team history.

There are plenty of things that can go wrong for a team and there are plenty of red flags for the Os right now, especially with Felix gone for 2024. There are also, of course, a ton of reasons to be extremely optimistic but those reasons don’t mean you don’t look to get better. You should always try to look to get better.  I have already said 3 years or less for a starter although 4 years is possible for the right guy although I tend to doubt Elias goes that far and I’m not sure that guy exists this offseason anyway.

Either way, I have never introduced the idea of 5 years so I’m not sure why you are bringing that up in response to me.

[MCO'sFan]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wildcard is 100% saying do nothing. He 100% wants to use only what is here.

You said you wouldn’t bring in any starter from outside the org because you don’t feel it’s worth the risk. 

 

That doesn’t mean do nothing. I also noted the wisdom and the validity of those who think differently. 

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The 2014 is an example of a team that is exactly the example you say would be epic but hey, let’s overlook actual facts and actual recent team history.

There are plenty of things that can go wrong for a team and there are plenty of red flags for the Os right now, especially with Felix gone for 2024. There are also, of course, a ton of reasons to be extremely optimistic but those reasons don’t mean you don’t look to get better. You should always try to look to get better.  I have already said 3 years or less for a starter although 4 years is possible for the right guy although I tend to doubt Elias goes that far and I’m not sure that guy exists this offseason anyway.

Either way, I have never introduced the idea of 5 years so I’m not sure why you are bringing that up in response to me.

I kind of doubt any guys will be available for three years that would be difference makers. We'd be looking at Stroman/Bassit/Tyler Anderson level guys. I don't see them being worth the cost relative to guys we already have. If we could get a good value I wouldn't be opposed to it but like I said it's not a "must have" for me.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

That doesn’t mean do nothing. I also noted the wisdom and the validity of those who think differently. 

I didn’t say you said to do nothing..just pointing out that you said to do nothing with the rotation..however, I would assume you don’t want to add from the outside in terms of positional talent either.

But WC is absolutely saying to do nothing, so no it’s not hyperbole. Others have said, why mess with a team that is on pace to win a 100 games?  That is a poor thought process.  That is assuming the next season plays out the exact same as the previous season.

One thing that I don’t like are the preseason prognostications about record predictions based on simulations. That said, they go through many scenarios and play out the season 1000s of times to come up with a median record. Sometimes you are a complete and utter failure, sometimes you are a monster success and other times you fall somewhere in the middle.  That is pretty much how things would be in real life.

Weaver used to say that everyone basically starts at 60-60 and how you do in the rest of the games determines how good you are. There is a lot of truth in that. I never felt the Os, or any other team, were actually a sub 50ish win team but that’s how the seasons played out because of trades, injuries, unexpected awful play, etc..

This team will probably win north of 95 games but is this really a 95 win team? Personally I don’t think so and I wouldn’t count on that for next year, especially without Felix. I also don’t expect NY to be as bad. I would expect Boston to keep improving. We will see what happens with the injuries and the Franco situation for Tampa. I expect Toronto to still be good.

All of that is to say simply, you don’t go into the offseason just making assumptions that everything is great and that all will be great again. You need to get better. The offense should, in theory, get better because of the talent you have and just how high level that talent is. The pitching is not at that level. Give me another very good starter to go with the 3 guys we think should be good to excellent next year and I think we really have something. Rely only on what we have and I think our margin for error is small, especially with no Felix.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I kind of doubt any guys will be available for three years that would be difference makers. We'd be looking at Stroman/Bassit/Tyler Anderson level guys. I don't see them being worth the cost relative to guys we already have. If we could get a good value I wouldn't be opposed to it but like I said it's not a "must have" for me.

You are going to see more and more guys signing shorter contracts imo.

and btw, those guys are difference makers. Eovaldi has been a difference maker for Texas. There are plenty of guys that will sign for 2-3 years that are big upgrades over the Irvin/Wells 5th spot And likely over Kremer as well. We will see if Kremer can outperform his peripherals again but he’s shaky for me. He is a lot of red flags.

[MCO'sFan]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You are going to see more and more guys signing shorter contracts imo.

and btw, those guys are difference makers. Eovaldi has been a difference maker for Texas. There are plenty of guys that will sign for 2-3 years that are big upgrades over the Irvin/Wells 5th spot And likely over Kremer as well. We will see if Kremer can outperform his peripherals again but he’s shaky for me. He is a lot of red flags.

Some of these guys work out and just as many usually don’t. The difference in many such examples is dumb luck. Signing FA is as much a crap shoot as there is in pro sports. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, MCO'sFan said:

Some of these guys work out and just as many usually don’t. The difference in many such examples is dumb luck. Signing FA is as much a crap shoot as there is in pro sports. 

Of course it is…but seeing as this site trusts Elias to do just about anything, I think we should trust him to do this too, right?

[MCO'sFan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course it is…but seeing as this site trusts Elias to do just about anything, I think we should trust him to do this too, right?

If he chooses to do so. I also trust him if he chooses not to add a pitcher. He obviously knows more about running a team than I do.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

If he chooses to do so. I also trust him if he chooses not to add a pitcher. He obviously knows more about running a team than I do.

Well it’s not him that I don’t trust him…it’s his owner.

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Sports Guy

[MCO'sFan]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well it’s not him that I don’t trust…it’s his owner.

 

True that! 

[Aristotelian]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course it is…but seeing as this site trusts Elias to do just about anything, I think we should trust him to do this too, right?

Yes, as I said, I would not be opposed to a signing. I would also not second guess him or think he is mind bogglingly stupid if he decides not to. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Yes, as I said, I would not be opposed to a signing. I would also not second guess him or think he is mind bogglingly stupid if he decides not to. 

Zero chance Elias believes the Os should return the same team with a few in house additions. No way he actually thinks that.  He’s not dumb. He understands that you don’t rely on magic to keep happening.

Whether his owner allows him to do things is a different story.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Zero chance Elias believes the Os should return the same team with a few in house additions. No way he actually thinks that.  He’s not dumb. He understands that you don’t rely on magic to keep happening.

Whether his owner allows him to do things is a different story.

I do think he will make some moves but I'd be surprised if he signs a starting pitcher to 3 years or more. If that is your expectation I think you are in for another upsetting offseason. Seems like his whole m.o. has been to set up the team to improve from within and it's working. He got us from .500 to on pace for 100 wins by improving methodically from within and we still have the #1 prospect. That isn't magic. 

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That isn't magic. 

Sure it is.  Its Orioles Magic.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I do think he will make some moves but I'd be surprised if he signs a starting pitcher to 3 years or more. If that is your expectation I think you are in for another upsetting offseason. Seems like his whole m.o. has been to set up the team to improve from within and it's working. He got us from .500 to on pace for 100 wins by improving methodically from within and we still have the #1 prospect. That isn't magic. 

I don’t know that he will go beyond 3 years. Houston hasn’t. But I definitely think he would be willing to go up to 3 years. I also think he would trade for pitching and that may be his preferred route.

The team has a lot of room for improvement.  We are 1 game better, by record, than the Dodgers…do you put us on the same level as them?  Atlanta is 5 games better than us in the standings. Do you feel we are that close to them? 

Do you believe the Os to be a better team than the Astros?

For me, I think the gap is far wider right now. 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Sports Guy