Trade chips replaced in-house = Salary Relief

[Aristotelian]

Could we get anything for O'Hearn? That would open up 300 AB's for Kjerstad. O'Hearn has one year left and will be coming off a year hitting .300/.336/.840. 130 OPS+. Someone has to be interested in that kind of production. O'Hearn will be Arb3 making about $2M, free agent in 2025. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Kremer will be in the rotation but personally, I would trade him.

Wells would go to the pen.

Trading Kremer would be a huge mistake.  He is 27.  He is cheap. He will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2024 season.   He has allowed 3 or few runs in 18 of his last 20 start.    In those 20 starts he as a 3.70 ERA.   He had a bad April but  still had a 2-1 record for the month.  He has turned his season around and has been a important part of the O's rotation going 12-5.  When he starts tonight he will tie Gibson for the most starts on the team with 27 on the season.

Edited August 29, 2023 by wildcard

[MCO'sFan]

27 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Could we get anything for O'Hearn? That would open up 300 AB's for Kjerstad. O'Hearn has one year left and will be coming off a year hitting .300/.336/.840. 130 OPS+. Someone has to be interested in that kind of production. O'Hearn will be Arb3 making about $2M, free agent in 2025. 

I guess it would depend on finding someone who trusts that his season translates to future success. I don't have that level of trust. 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trading Kremer would be a huge mistake.  He is 27.  He is cheap. He will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2024 season.   He has allowed 3 or few runs in 18 of his last 20 start.    In those 20 starts he as a 3.70 ERA.   He had a bad April but  still had a 2-1 record for the month.  He has turned his season around and has been a important part of the O's rotation going 12-5.  When he starts tonight he will tie Gibson for the most starts on the team with 27 on the season.

In a vacuum, I agree with you.  But it depends who else they acquire for the rotation and what they would get for Kremer.  

[MCO'sFan]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trading Kremer would be a huge mistake.  He is 27.  He is cheap. He will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2024 season.   He has allowed 3 or few runs in 18 of his last 20 start.    In those 20 starts he as a 3.70 ERA.   He had a bad April but  still had a 2-1 record for the month.  He has turned his season around and has been a important part of the O's rotation going 12-5.  When he starts tonight he will tie Gibson for the most starts on the team with 27 on the season.

I would not be shocked to see one of Kremer, Wells, or Irvin traded. I expect ME to sign one of his veteran starters like the Gibson's of the world. I don't agree with it but I would not be shocked. 

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In a vacuum, I agree with you.  But it depends who else they acquire for the rotation and what they would get for Kremer.  

Pretty hard to trade for someone better than Kremer when he is pitching like he is for the minimum salary.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

I would not be shocked to see one of Kremer, Wells, or Irvin traded. I expect ME to sign one of his veteran starters like the Gibson's of the world. I don't agree with it but I would not be shocked. 

I will be surprised if any of the three are traded.

[Sports Guy]

Kremer has some bad statcast data.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dean-kremer-665152?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

He doesn’t Miss bats, gives up a lot of homers, has an FIP at 4.74 and an xERA well over 5.

Now, that said, he’s a valuable and serviceable guy. He is eating innings and keeping us in games basically every time he takes the mound. He is also cheap for another 2-3 seasons, so that’s obviously great.

The problem is, he could easily be a 5+ ERA guy at any moment. The peripheral stats and batted ball data just arent that good although it is good that he is raising the K rate some recently.

If the team was going to truly invest in pitching and trade for a guy and sign a real starter, I would want to replace him. You can do better (you can also do worse) and the team has the resources to easily to do it.

That said, he’s going to be in the rotation next year because he’s earned the chance to keep the spot and the Os aren’t going to give up the cheap arm that can eat innings and they will have the guys coming up that can be behind him if he struggles and they will  have the resources to go get someone at the deadline to replace him if all else fails and they are in the race.

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I will be surprised if any of the three are traded.

Wells and Irvin have no value, so I tend to agree here.

[Aristotelian]

49 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trading Kremer would be a huge mistake.  He is 27.  He is cheap. He will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2024 season.   He has allowed 3 or few runs in 18 of his last 20 start.    In those 20 starts he as a 3.70 ERA.   He had a bad April but  still had a 2-1 record for the month.  He has turned his season around and has been a important part of the O's rotation going 12-5.  When he starts tonight he will tie Gibson for the most starts on the team with 27 on the season.

It's also not like this is a fluke. He had a 3.23 ERA/2.9 WAR in a break out '22, and is following that up with a 4.31 ERA, improved K/9, and career high in innings. (I wonder how his numbers would look if he had stayed home from WBC and done his usual spring training?) Anyway, you don't trade a guy like that. Someone would have to make a huge overpay and those deals don't happen in real life. I'd like to see him keep pitching for us and building his value. If he has a bad year, bring in a rental.  

[now]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wells and Irvin have no value...

What a strange statement, given Wells's all-star-worthy first half and Irvin's second-half rebound. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, now said:

What a strange statement, given Wells's all-star-worthy first half and Irvin's second-half rebound. 

Irvin hasn’t been good this year overall though. I mean, I like him and I think he’s a good piece to have around but he has an ErA approaching 5 and had to spend a lot of the season in the minors.

And what do you give up for a guy with mediocre peripherals and statcast numbers and who gives up a ton of homers and has to be babied for half the season? 
 

It’s not that Wells isn’t a good pitcher. You love his control but his stuff isn’t overwhelming and he’s softer than charmin once he reaches 80-110 innings. His role is hard to pin down because you don’t know that you would value him as a high leverage reliever because of the homer issue and if he’s only a middle reliever/swingman type guy, why would you give up anything of value for that? Every organization has those guys and there are always guys like that on the waiver wire available for free. 
 
In fact, you can say that about both of these guys. 

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Sports Guy

[now]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Irvin hasn’t been good this year overall though. I mean, I like him and I think he’s a good piece to have around but he has an ErA approaching 5 and had to spend a lot of the season in the minors.

And what do you give up for a guy with mediocre peripherals and statcast numbers and who gives up a ton of homers and has to be babied for half the season? 
 

It’s not that Wells isn’t a good pitcher. You love his control but his stuff isn’t overwhelming and he’s softer than charmin once he reaches 80-110 innings. His role is hard to pin down because you don’t know that you would value him as a high leverage reliever because of the homer issue and if he’s only a middle reliever/swingman type guy, why would you give up anything of value for that? Every organization has those guys and there are always guys like that on the waiver wire available for free. 
 
In fact, you can say that about both of these guys. 

 

Sure, they both have limitations... but also value. After all, the O's gave up a decent prospect (Hernaiz) to get Irvin. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, now said:

Sure, they both have limitations... but also value. After all, the O's gave up a decent prospect (Hernaiz) to get Irvin. 

And he has been worse with us..in a pitcher friendly park. When the Os acquired him, he had pitched about 360 innings of 4.1 ERA ball over 2 years. Big difference between that and what he has done this year.

I see zero reason why any team would trade for either. It just doesn’t make sense.

Edited August 29, 2023 by Sports Guy

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

In a vacuum, I agree with you.  But it depends who else they acquire for the rotation and what they would get for Kremer.  

To me (and I'll be the first person to say I'm not good at the trade proposal thing) Kremer seems like a guy you could package with a couple other pieces to get a better starter.  He eats innings and can fill the void left by the impact starter.  He has a tiny bit of upside, under team control for a while, and is affordable.  Santander (or Hays) + Kremer + Norby could be enticing for a team with surplus pitching looking for offense.