Trade chips replaced in-house = Salary Relief

[Can_of_corn]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That will not happen because O's ownership and management are not going to extend players into their 30's. Santander will be let go either this off season or the next.

I wasn't talking about this O's team.

I certainly don't think Angelos is going to pay free agent rates.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You can beat this drum all winter but its not happening.   He has Bradish, GRod, Means, Kremer, Wells, Hall, Irvin and McDermott.   I will be very surprised if he adds a FA starter instead on relying on development.

McDermott isn’t close to being ready.

Elias is too smart to rely on Wells again. You just can’t rely on him to be a starter and no, you don’t rely on him for half a year and then replace him. That’s just a poor plan. 
 

And I have no idea how you can even include Hall in any plan to start at this point. That just doesn’t make any sense at all.

[Sports Guy]

The Os have, at best, 5.5 starters going into next year and that is relying on WellS and Irvin.  With your closer out for the year and coming off a playoff season and likely ALE title, you don’t go into next year with that set up. 
 

That’s baseball negligence. That’s what the Os did in 2012 and 2014. You get better, you don’t stay stagnant. That’s just asking for trouble.

People want to question the run differential stuff and they like to act like it doesn’t matter…well it does and when you have a team that relies on winning a lot of close games, you don’t want to rely on that multiple years in a row. Winning close games isn’t some predictive/repeatable skill.

You have to get better. I feel good about the hitting getting better but not the pitching will be worse if they don’t improve upon it.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os have, at best, 5.5 starters going into next year and that is relying on WellS and Irvin.  With your closer out for the year and coming off a playoff season and likely ALE title, you don’t go into next year with that set up. 
 

That’s baseball negligence. That’s what the Os did in 2012 and 2014. You get better, you don’t stay stagnant. That’s just asking for trouble.

People want to question the run differential stuff and they like to act like it doesn’t matter…well it does and when you have a team that relies on winning a lot of close games, you don’t want to rely on that multiple years in a row. Winning close games isn’t some predictive/repeatable skill.

You have to get better. I feel good about the hitting getting better but not the pitching will be worse if they don’t improve upon it.

Weren't you calling negligence last offseason?

How's that working out?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Weren't you calling negligence last offseason?

How's that working out?

Yea I felt they needed to add another starter and another reliever (you know, like they did and were looking for at the deadline).

That said, yea the out of no where performance by formerly awful pitchers DC (well awful at times/in recent years for DC) and Cano were huge for the pen And the starters held up better than I thought they would, especially with how poor GRod was in his first stint at times.

Still, I think it’s foolish to expect lightning to strike twice.

Again, same story after 2012 and 2014.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I felt they needed to add another starter and another reliever (you know, like they did and were looking for at the deadline).

That said, yea the out of no where performance by formerly awful pitchers DC (well awful at times/in recent years for DC) and Cano were huge for the pen And the starters held up better than I thought they would, especially with how poor GRod was in his first stint at times.

Still, I think it’s foolish to expect lightning to strike twice.

Again, same story after 2012 and 2014.

You were more vocal than that.  You wanted another starter.  You didn't want Hays and Santander, and to a lesser extent Mullins, "counted on."  You didn't want Mateo on the roster.  You wanted another "middle of the order bat."

About the only guy you valued correctly of the young veterans was Urias.

Those young veterans are generally better than you give them credit for, will be more difficult to replace than appreciated, and play extremely well together.  They're the heart and soul of a team that's going to win close to 100 games.  You don't rip that apart just to get "younger" and "more talented."

Now, this team has overperformed its Pythagorean record some and a lot of that can be attributed to a very, very good bullpen, that will be missing its best piece.  So the team should be looking to make sensible upgrades, as always, and in particular they probably want to focus on the pitching staff.

But why on Earth would a team that is as good as this team is make wholesale changes?

[Just Regular]

I believe Elias values half season optionality at the deadline.    2 month contracts have an edge on 1 year contracts, same as 1 year contracts have an edge on multi-year deals.     Pitchers just don't stand still on true talent level even for a year.

It might be Tyler Wells is completely cooked, but if he returns effectively, what offseason prep notes do you give him?

Its a known known at today's intensities it is somewhat rare for length pitchers to sustain all 6 months.     Wells for me is a good tool to get Elias to July, and see who is in good form.

We'll get the Seattle answer early in the offseason as if they want to open a SP job for a serious Ohtani chase, they'll want to be able to include Westburg and Cowser in the projected 2024 lineups for their Shohei sales pitch.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

I believe Elias values half season optionality at the deadline.    2 month contracts have an edge on 1 year contracts, same as 1 year contracts have an edge on multi-year deals.     Pitchers just don't stand still on true talent level even for a year.

It might be Tyler Wells is completely cooked, but if he returns effectively, what offseason prep notes do you give him?

Its a known known at today's intensities it is somewhat rare for length pitchers to sustain all 6 months.     Wells for me is a good tool to get Elias to July, and see who is in good form.

We'll get the Seattle answer early in the offseason as if they want to open a SP job for a serious Ohtani chase, they'll want to be able to include Westburg and Cowser in the projected 2024 lineups for their Shohei sales pitch.

The Mariners aren't going to open up a pitching slot for Ohtani for next season.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You were more vocal than that.  You wanted another starter.  You didn't want Hays and Santander, and to a lesser extent Mullins, "counted on."  You didn't want Mateo on the roster.  You wanted another "middle of the order bat."

About the only guy you valued correctly of the young veterans was Urias.

Those young veterans are generally better than you give them credit for, will be more difficult to replace than appreciated, and play extremely well together.  They're the heart and soul of a team that's going to win close to 100 games.  You don't rip that apart just to get "younger" and "more talented."

Now, this team has overperformed its Pythagorean record some and a lot of that can be attributed to a very, very good bullpen, that will be missing its best piece.  So the team should be looking to make sensible upgrades, as always, and in particular they probably want to focus on the pitching staff.

But why on Earth would a team that is as good as this team is make wholesale changes?

Oh yea, I didn’t want all of those guys counted on in terms of everyday players.

Mateo has been garbage.

Hays and Santander have stayed healthy and been solid but nothing spectacular.  Good players but not game changers on a regular basis but can be when they are hot, especially AS.

I would have had the younger guys up sooner and I think we would be a better team for it. 
 

Im not calling for wholesale changes. Not sure where you are coming up with that. 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Mariners aren't going to open up a pitching slot for Ohtani for next season.

Ah, right - current events impacting long term strategies.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Oh yea, I didn’t want all of those guys counted on in terms of everyday players.

Mateo has been garbage.

Hays and Santander have stayed healthy and been solid but nothing spectacular. 
 

I would have had the younger guys up sooner and I think we would be a better team for it. 
 

Im not calling for wholesale changes. Not sure where you are coming up with that. 

Well, you were right about Mateo too, but he still has more value than you give him credit for.

As we've seen from Cowser, Stowers, and even Westburg there's nothing to suggest they should have been taking ABs away from anybody earlier.  Westburg has been a defensive upgrade, and I like his speed, but he's got an OPS under 700 so bringing him up earlier would have had very, very little impact on winning and losing.

Regarding changes, wholesale or not, I expect to let Frazier walk, and explore trading one of Hays/Santander.  That's really about it.  Any bullpen additions will most certainly follow their established pattern: cheap.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

You forget Gibson?

I was mostly focusing on the IF & OF but, he fits the bill for the topic of the thread.  I'll fix it in the OP.  There will be significant savings with him as well.  

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, you were right about Mateo too, but he still has more value than you give him credit for.

As we've seen from Cowser, Stowers, and even Westburg there's nothing to suggest they should have been taking ABs away from anybody earlier.  Westburg has been a defensive upgrade, and I like his speed, but he's got an OPS under 700 so bringing him up earlier would have had very, very little impact on winning and losing.

Regarding changes, wholesale or not, I expect to let Frazier walk, and explore trading one of Hays/Santander.  That's really about it.  Any bullpen additions will most certainly follow their established pattern: cheap.

Mateo has limited value. He’s not good. He can play good D and he has speed. We have several IFers way more valuable. You need to learn how to let go and not be enamored by the shiney parts of his game.

Westburg has been the most valuable IFer outside of Henderson by fWAR iirc.

No need to keep going down the same road about Cowser.

Hays was also an awful player for about 6-7 weeks recently and despite being a deserving AS this year, is still only a 2ish WAR guy this year. I like Hays, it’s good to see him stay healthy. I like the OF next year with him, Mullins, Kjerstad and Cowser. But he’s nothing special. 
 

Yea, no reason to spend on the pen. They made a mistake with Givens. They won’t repeat that imo. Tate will be back. Could they keep Fuji if he’s cheap? I could see that. Give them more time to work with him. 

I have seen some fans wonder if they pursue Hader with Bautista out. I say zero chance of that.

Could they look to trade for a reliever? That I could see. 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Sports Guy

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

Did John Angelos write this post? The only thing I could see happening is a Hays or Santander trade. We have the second lowest payroll in MLB. The discussion should be what FAs are added to the team this year to fill in the gaps. 

I don't think you'll find a guy that despises JA more than me  A discussion on what the team should do and the FAs they should target is all fine and good.  But that discussion isn't based in reality.  They are not going to all the sudden deviate from what they've been doing.  If they do, I'll eat crow.  The OP was more in line with what they are likely to do based on their history, owner,  and the teams they are loosely trying to emulate.  

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

McDermott isn’t close to being ready.

Elias is too smart to rely on Wells again. You just can’t rely on him to be a starter and no, you don’t rely on him for half a year and then replace him. That’s just a poor plan. 
 

And I have no idea how you can even include Hall in any plan to start at this point. That just doesn’t make any sense at all.

Why Hall and McDermott?   Its called development which is Elias M.O.

I think Elias would gladly take 15 starts at 3.20 ERA  from Wells again next year.