Lucas Giolito on waivers?

[HakunaSakata]

59 minutes ago, Malike said:

I dunno, they are paying Gibson 10M. I think they would have gone in on him, especially for the price for next season, he's a big upgrade over Gibson at around the same cost.

Mike Clevinger is absolutely not a big upgrade over Gibson. Look at his underlying numbers. He's an injury prone mid 4s ERA pitcher with a sub par strikeout rate and a clubhouse douchebag label hanging over his head. 

[Hallas]

11 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You really need to start looking at advanced stats and stop focusing on ERA. Clevinger has been doing it with smoke and mirrors for years. At best he's a Kyle Gibson 2.0. 

I tend to think that people that can consistently beat their expectations have skills that aren't properly captured by available data.  His statcast suggests that he's quite good at limiting hard contact, and perhaps that he's getting a bit lucky on balls in play, or he's got some difficult to quantify skill that facilitates BABIP suppression.  He's beaten his xERA every year he's been in the league except for his rookie year 8 years ago.  I think you're underselling him as a pitcher.  Even if the 0.89 difference is partially attributable to luck, he's still beaten his xERA by at least 0.3 from 2017-present, which would make him at worst a ~3.9 ERA pitcher.  Still the kind of pitcher that, off-field issues aside, most of the playoff teams would love.

Edited September 1, 2023 by Hallas

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

You really need to start looking at advanced stats and stop focusing on ERA. Clevinger has been doing it with smoke and mirrors for years. At best he's a Kyle Gibson 2.0. 

Nah…..I’m not saying the advanced metrics don’t matter. But, he has a career WHIP of 1.19 vs 1.34 for Gibson. Like I said, if you throw out the year after TJ he’s been a low 3 ERA pitcher. It’s history and it’s been very consistent. Gibson has never been a low 3 ERA pitcher. His best year is 3.84 which is a full run higher than Clevinger. You simply can’t dismiss the reality over a period of 7-8 years by pointing out advanced metrics and calling him lucky. 

[Whammer]

Giolito getting rocked in his Clev debut.  9 ER in 3 IP.  

[dystopia]

24 minutes ago, Whammer said:

Giolito getting rocked in his Clev debut.  9 ER in 3 IP.  

What the hell happened to him?

[Rbiggs2525]

22 minutes ago, dystopia said:

What the hell happened to him?

I am not giving Flaherty a pass but I do have some speculation on catchers not knowing traded pitchers. First homerun Flaherty gave up the other day he executed the pitch Rutchman asked for. I think this effects pitchers like Flaherty and Giolito who have average stuff.

[rm5678]

5 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I am not giving Flaherty a pass but I do have some speculation on catchers not knowing traded pitchers. First homerun Flaherty gave up the other day he executed the pitch Rutchman asked for. I think this effects pitchers like Flaherty and Giolito who have average stuff.

That may be true in some cases, although I believe Michael Lorenzen pitched a no-hitter in his 2nd start for the Phillies after getting traded to them.

[RZNJ]

Starting to think Giolito could be the guy.  The Orioles seem to really value durability and pitchers who post up for every start.  Lyles, Gibson, and Irvin all fit that bill.   Eduardo Rodriguez and Stroman don’t quite have that.  Cease does but he’s going to cost at least one top prospect if not two.  While Cease will cost less in terms of salary I could see them pivot to Giolito if the White Sox demands are too high or another team gets him.  Giolito offers a floor of Gibson like production with the potential of a #2 or #3 type starter.   He really got hurt by the home run last year, especially after being traded with like 20 in his last 70 innings or so.   He gave up a .556 slugging on his fastball.   He only throws a 4 seamer it seems.  His change up and slider were effective.  I guess the question is how much can Giolito bounce back without any changes to his repertoire and is it possible to introduce the two seamer like they did with Bradish to give the fastball a different look.   His fastball hasn’t fluctuated that much over the years so it’s tough to see where the regression over the last two years has come from.   

[Bemorewins]

49 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Starting to think Giolito could be the guy.  The Orioles seem to really value durability and pitchers who post up for every start.  Lyles, Gibson, and Irvin all fit that bill.   Eduardo Rodriguez and Stroman don’t quite have that.  Cease does but he’s going to cost at least one top prospect if not two.  While Cease will cost less in terms of salary I could see them pivot to Giolito if the White Sox demands are too high or another team gets him.  Giolito offers a floor of Gibson like production with the potential of a #2 or #3 type starter.   He really got hurt by the home run last year, especially after being traded with like 20 in his last 70 innings or so.   He gave up a .556 slugging on his fastball.   He only throws a 4 seamer it seems.  His change up and slider were effective.  I guess the question is how much can Giolito bounce back without any changes to his repertoire and is it possible to introduce the two seamer like they did with Bradish to give the fastball a different look.   His fastball hasn’t fluctuated that much over the years so it’s tough to see where the regression over the last two years has come from.   

IMO Eduardo and Cease because of their ability are the most probably "difference makers" when we get into October baseball. Eduardo in particular being left handed with the ability to neutralize lefties in our park and allowing our cavernous left field to eat up righties. Stroman is a meh for me, he sort of faded as the season went along last year. And Giolito is a gamble. Maybe you get good and he figures something out to give you a great season, but most likely there is a lot of average in his performance. IMO in order to make waves in the post season, we need to aim for better than Giolito.

Just my .2 cents.

[Frobby]

Giolito sort of intrigues me.   I don’t know what happened to the guy after the White Sox traded him.   If there’s no concern that he was pitching hurt, I wouldn’t mind giving him a shot.   There’s a lot of upside there.  

[sportsfan8703]

I think his floor is his post deadline performance. Was he hurt?  Still hurt?  He might take essentially a big money one year deal, but with a player opt in/out that would still guarantee him three years. 

Would Angelos even sign off on a salary commitment like even Giolito?

What worries me is what was the deal with acquiring Flaherty over Montgomery, or even Ed Rod if the rumors are true about Ed Rod being available to us. This is why I just think Jose Quintana is the most the most realistic option for us. Not a lot of salary commitment. Not a big prospect blow that would hurt the hoarding of Elias and Sig. 

We even had to do some salary gymnastics to sign Alex Cobb. Deferred money and such. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Giolito sort of intrigues me.   I don’t know what happened to the guy after the White Sox traded him.   If there’s no concern that he was pitching hurt, I wouldn’t mind giving him a shot.   There’s a lot of upside there.  

Elias/Holt have to absolutely sure they can fix him before they sign him.   Ben Clemens is saying 4/60m.   That is not someone you take a shot on.   That is a big commitment.

Giolito has had ERAs of 4.88 and 4.90 the last two years.   If the O's can't fix him and end up with that for 4 years it would be a major blunder bigger than Ubaldo for 4/50m.

Edited November 28, 2023 by wildcard

[dystopia]

No to Giolito. 

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias/Holt have to absolutely sure they can fit him before they sign him.   Ben Clemens is saying 4/60m.   That is not someone you take a shot on.   That is a big commitment.

Giolito has had ERAs of 4.88 and 4.90 the last two years.   If the O's can't fit him and end up with that for 4 years it would be a major blunder bigger than Ubaldo for 4/50m.

I assume you mean “fix,” not “fit.”   Sure, I would expect the O’s to analyze what’s happened with Giolito and whether they can fix it.  But there’s no such thing as “absolutely sure.”  There’s always risk with any pitcher.  

The interesting thing about Giolito is he was having a solid season for Chicago, then fell apart when traded at the deadline.  Why?  Just a change from good luck to bad luck, or was it something more fundamental?

 

[OriolesMagic83]

My take on Giolito is that he is a Kremer like innings eater w/ DFA downside.  (Although the O's would be too cheap to release him and keep running him out there).  I hope the O's don't sign him, but I could see the O's signing him to a 1 year deal w/ an option or two.  I'm hoping another team gives him 3 years.  This has disaster written all over it.