Pay the Man!

[El Gordo]

That assumes that you are putting the $40m saved into the inefficent FA marketplace instead of investing it in other ways that have a much better return on investment. I wouldn't go any more than 3 years (from this year) for Roberts, especially in this market and especially when the market is much more likely to be down for the next couple of years than it is to be like it has in the bubble of the past few years.

If I'm not planning to contend for 4 years, that might be true, but if I'm looking to contend in 2 years or less, maybe not. These so called better investments are not likely to bring results in less than 4 years IMO. Of course you hold to 3/30, but you should be willing to compromise with say a 4th year option, rather than taking the picks.

[zff4]

In a marketplace that is more likely to get worse before it gets better it makes no sense to pay him more than the market dictates.

Well, it's us that needs what he has, not the market. It unnecessarily limits us to fall in line wholecloth with "the market" when it's not the market that profits by the signing, but us.

To that end, we pay him what his value is to us, with "the market" supplying a useful spectrum of dollar value, but not however, mandating a strict dollar value. Without a comparable player available, and our familiarity with his production, and our need for it (and his intangibles), his value is determined by what the team needs to win during our window of opportunity.

I hope the same people who believe the market allows us to lowball him aren't the same people who have always claimed we need to show the league we're ready to value our players sufficiently to attract the better free agents.

[OrangeJerseys]

Pay da man hees mo-ney.

[24fps]

Well, it's us that needs what he has, not the market. It unnecessarily limits us to fall in line wholecloth with "the market" when it's not the market that profits by the signing, but us.

To that end, we pay him what his value is to us, with "the market" supplying a useful spectrum of dollar value, but not however, mandating a strict dollar value. Without a comparable player available, and our familiarity with his production, and our need for it (and his intangibles), his value is determined by what the team needs to win during our window of opportunity.

I hope the same people who believe the market allows us to lowball him aren't the same people who have always claimed we need to show the league we're ready to value our players sufficiently to attract the better free agents.

Markets themselves neither profit nor grant permissions. If the sole yardstick is value to 'us', then comps are irrelevant. The Orioles' window of opportunity can fairly be defined as "sometime during the next decade, hopefully sooner rather than later".

I don't think it's necessary to overcomplicate this situation. Most of all, no demonstrations to the league are necessary, unless the purpose of the exercise is to prove that we're fools. More than anything else, it's not out of the question that come April 1st, our offer of 3/30 could be viewed as excessive.

[DonnyUnitas]

Thank you KGB!

In Soviet Russia, Roberts extends YOU!

[Dipper9]

How terrible of a first half did Mora have? How much of a decline has Mora been on lately? Did Mora live up to his contract in 2006 when he had a 91 OPS+? How about in 2007 when he had a 98 OPS+? He puts together a great second half because of Cortisone and necessary rest, but he's not an every day player, and I hope Trembley doesn't utilize him as such (Mora). Mora made $4 million in 2006 to stink it up. He got near $8 million in 2007 (terrible contract, IMHO) to stink it up. He puts together a hot second half in 2008, and now you're saying it was a positive overall for Mora? So, we've given him $20 million over the last 3 years to put up one good season. And we're going to give him $8 in 2009. Are you confident he'll be the Mora of 2008? Or the Mora of 2006 and 2007? I think he's going to regress. He wasn't worth the contract we gave him. Terrible contract.

I can see the same happening with Roberts. That amount of money ($40-$44 million) over 4 years for a ~32 year old second baseman? No thank you.

Just for reference sake, Mora is 6 years OLDER than Roberts. But again, BRob IS over 30 so I guess he can no longer perform.

[Dipper9]

Actually, Orlando Hudson is 2 months younger then BRob.

And I'm not sure that Roberts has more power then Hudson. Actually, I'm not sure Roberts is that much better then Hudson, or atleast heads and above better then Hudson.

They both played their first full seasons in 2003 (as starters), and since then they've been fairly close.

Roberts since 2003

Games- 863

BA- .284

HR- 58

2B- 244

3B- 29

OB%- .355

SLG%- .416

OPS- 771

Orlando Hudson since 2003

Games- 811

BA- .282

HR- 64

2B- 169

3B- 39

OB%- .346

SLG%- .433

OPS- 779

Based off that, it appears Hudson has more power then Roberts also. Roberts steals more bases and hits more doubles and is maybe a better defender, but BA is close, OB% is close, and Hudson has the edge in HR, 3B, SLG%, OPS.

After seeing their stats, Hudson is actually closer to Roberts then I first thought. Roberts better hope that Hudson gets a pretty good deal. Because IF Hudson gets $5 mil a year, I'm not sure Roberts is going to get $10 mil a year from anyone else.

Also, this is why we should extend Roberts. Why would any team give up a prospect of any value for Roberts, when a guy like Hudson is out there?

IMO, Roberts isn't worth as much money as he probably thinks, and Roberts is probably worth more to the Orioles then he is to any other teams. So, if I'm the O's I wouldn't give him 4 years on top of his 09 deal, but what I would do is offer him this..Tear up his 09 deal, and offer him a new 4/$40 mil deal. This way, the Orioles don't have to go 5, and it gives Roberts a raise for 09.

And since Roberts will be 31 all of 09 season, the Orioles have Roberts from the ages of 31-34. He should be pretty productive still through those ages.

Well, I'm not gonna sit here and argue stats, but the bottom line is Roberts is respected around the league as one of the top five second baseman in baseball, while Hudson is still unsigned and MAY end up with a one year deal somewhere.

So, I ask you, who is more valuable?

[Dipper9]

Pay da man hees mo-ney.

Ah yes...good old Rounders reference!

[cindyluvsbrady]

Just for reference sake, Mora is 6 years OLDER than Roberts. But again, BRob IS over 30 so I guess he can no longer perform.

YUP:eek:

I guess if you are over 30 ........you should be taken out and shot:rolleyestf:

That is what some seem to think:bangwall:

[Ruzious]

Well, I'm not gonna sit here and argue stats, but the bottom line is Roberts is respected around the league as one of the top five second baseman in baseball, while Hudson is still unsigned and MAY end up with a one year deal somewhere.

So, I ask you, who is more valuable?

Hudson and Roberts have the same value. They're the same age, they get almost identical OPS's (look at the last 3 years - Hudson has a slight ege). The differences between them is Hudson has been regarded as the best defensive 2nd baseman in baseball - though there was a perceived drop last season, and BRob steals a lot more bases.

So, if Hudson has to settle for 1 year at less than $10 mil, Roberts' agent should bow down in gratitude to AM if he keeps the 3/30 on the table. It'd be far far far more than market.

[mweb]

Hudson and Roberts have the same value. They're the same age, they get almost identical OPS's (look at the last 3 years - Hudson has a slight ege). The differences between them is Hudson has been regarded as the best defensive 2nd baseman in baseball - though there was a perceived drop last season, and BRob steals a lot more bases.

So, if Hudson has to settle for 1 year at less than $10 mil, Roberts' agent should bow down in gratitude to AM if he keeps the 3/30 on the table. It'd be far far far more than market.

Not even close to the same value...look at Fangraphs.

[Ruzious]

Not even close to the same value...look at Fangraphs.

I'm not interested in looking at Fangraphs. If you have actual reasoning explaining why they're "not even close", then tell me.

[Palmoripken]

I hope once the Hudson situation is resolved that Roberts and his agent take a good look at the 3-30 offered. Given the market that's more than fair IMO. He's been a very good 2B for us but I would feel reluctant to offer him four years. Have no issue bringing him back just for the right price and years.

[CumberlandFan]

If these arguments were presented in an arbitration hearing, it's pretty clear BRob earned his money the previous 4 years, and SGuy makes a good point that from a purely business point of view, it would be silly for the O's to increase their offer.

I would like to expand on that, this is not a pure business move. This is Baltimore and we do like our heroes. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to sell tickets to thousands of "no-shows." They don't spend any additional money at the games. It's much better to put thousands of warm butts in cheaper seats who consume large amounts of beer, cokes, ballcaps, any make lots of noise and excitement. More importantly is the fact that this franchise has to maintain and increase it's fan base.

Brian Roberts is the face of the club, he represents all that was good and exciting about our storied past. In many way he's the last touchstone to that tradition. He's the hard-nose, give-it all you can blue collar guy we love.

Sometimes, it's smart to ignore what your "purely business" instincts say, and do what is best for the player, the fans, and the club.

Four years for forty million is what he wants, give it to him. He'll earn that extra ten million, and we show our fans and the rest of the baseball world that Baltimore rewards it's heroes and wants them to remain in town.

[Ruzious]

If these arguments were presented in an arbitration hearing, it's pretty clear BRob earned his money the previous 4 years, and SGuy makes a good point that from a purely business point of view, it would be silly for the O's to increase their offer.

I would like to expand on that, this is not a pure business move. This is Baltimore and we do like our heroes. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to sell tickets to thousands of "no-shows." They don't spend any additional money at the games. It's much better to put thousands of warm butts in cheaper seats who consume large amounts of beer, cokes, ballcaps, any make lots of noise and excitement. More importantly is the fact that this franchise has to maintain and increase it's fan base.

Brian Roberts is the face of the club, he represents all that was good and exciting about our storied past. In many way he's the last touchstone to that tradition. He's the hard-nose, give-it all you can blue collar guy we love.

Sometimes, it's smart to ignore what your "purely business" instincts say, and do what is best for the player, the fans, and the club.

Four years for forty million is what he wants, give it to him. He'll earn that extra ten million, and we show our fans and the rest of the baseball world that Baltimore rewards it's heroes and wants them to remain in town.

More likely - what that would show is the O's are pushovers when it comes to negotiating and have no concept of what the market is.

Offering 3/30 is likely well over market as it is - depending on what Hudson signs for - so it will likely be accepted - and I can deal with that only because that was put on the table. As a GM, you always do what's best for the club. If you pander to the players and fans at the expense of the club, you'll end up disappointed. And I really don't think it's going to increase any fan's enjoyment of the game knowing BRob is getting $10 mil more than he should have gotten. I want to have faith in the GM as well as the players - as he is every bit as important and more than BRob is to the future of the team. Throwing away money wouldn't help.