Playoff Roster

[MurphDogg]

Now that the Orioles have clinched, it is time to start thinking about the playoff roster.

As a reminder, the playoff roster contains 26 players with a maximum of 13 pitchers. The roster can be reset every series, and if a player is injured in the middle of a series, he can be replaced on the roster but he is not eligible for that round or the following round. 

I am a fan of a 12-man pitching staff in the playoffs, given the off-days, the need for only 4 starters and the ability to pinch-hit and pinch-run based on matchups.

Position player Locks

(1) Rutschman

(2) McCann

(3) Henderson

(4) O'Hearn

(5) Westburg

(6) Urias

(7) Mateo

(8) Frazier

(9) Hays

(10) Hicks 

(11) Mullins

(12) Santander 

Pitcher Locks

(13) Bradish

(14) Grayson Rodriguez

(15) Kremer

(16) Cano

(17) Fuji

(18) Webb

(19) Coulombe

(20) Perez

Lock if healthy

(21) Mountcastle

 

In my opinion, these 21 players are locked in for the 26-man playoff roster. I separated out Mountcastle, but given that they claim his shoulder injury is a day-to-day, I will give the benefit of the doubt that it will be fine in two weeks. 

If the O's carry a 12-man pitching staff, they are looking at 4 more pitchers (including the #4 starter) and 1 more position player, if they carry 13 pitchers, they are looking at 5 more pitchers.

Potential Position players

(1) Kjerstad

(2) McKenna

(3) Cowser

(4) Holliday (a guy can dream!)

Potential pitchers

(1) John Means

(2) DL Hall 

(3) Kyle Gibson

(4) Jack Flaherty

(5) Cole Irvin

(6) Mike Baumann

(7) Tyler Wells

(8) Felix Bautista

(9) Joey Krehbiel

(10) Bryan Baker

(11) Nick Vespi

(12) Bruce Zimmermann

Not Eligible

(X) Jorge Lopez

 

I think the #4 starter spot is going to come down to Means and Gibson. Flaherty officially pitched his way out of contention on Friday.

I expect Means, Gibson and Hall to all make the roster. If both Gibson and Means are on the roster and only one is the game 4 starter, I don't think the Orioles need to carry an additional long man, so I think Flaherty and Irvin will be left off of the roster.

That leaves Baumann, Wells, Bautista and a position player fighting for the last two spots, with the other pitchers as dark horses.

Wells had a lousy outing on Friday, giving up 3 runs in 2/3rds of an inning, but he had only allowed a run in one of his other 5 outings, going 4 and 2/3rds with 4 Ks, 2 BBs, 2 hits, 2 runs with the Tides.

 

What does everyone think about the roster and my conclusions?

Which position player do you think has the inside track, if they only take 12 pitchers?

If they take 13 pitchers and Bautista is not able to pitch, which two pitchers are you taking?

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by MurphDogg

[glenn__davis]

Good post.

I think McKenna has inside track if they only take 1 more position player.  His defense and speed trumps Kjerstad's power IMO.  But some of that will depend on how Kjerstad looks.  A homer and 3 Ks so far, and on 2 of the 3 Ks he had no shot (admittedly against very tough pitchers).  If Kjerstad knocks a few more out I can see them viewing him as a late-inning PH candidate.

[Sports Guy]

I was actually about to start a thread asking about the bullpen.

Who do you actually feel confident about in the pen?

[sportsfan8703]

I’d like to see us Utilize Means in a start at home. A lefty SP is a weapon with the wall. 

[eddie83]

If Mountcastle is healthy I like McKenna’s odds to make it. I prefer 12 pitchers as well. Orioles may not. 
 

 

I could see Flaherty in a pen role. Maybe even in the regular season.  Means, Hall, Gibson and Flaherty are last 4.  
 

If only 12 position players I guess no McKenna. Baumann slight edge over Irvin.  

[eddie83]

Also as we know matchups matter.  

[24fps]

I think Gibson's veteranocity also makes him a lock and further pushes Irvin to the side.  I will be surprised if Kjerstad makes it and really surprised if Cowser does.  Agree that McKenna has an inside track for additional position player.

[Spy Fox]

I think McKenna makes it as a defensive replacement option. 

Hall is a lock for the pen unless he has a disastrous next two weeks. 

I don't think Wells, Krehbiel, Vespi, and Zimmermann have much chance of making it. 

I also doubt Irvin makes it as he's in line behind all three of Gibson/Means/Flaherty for 4th starter/swingman role. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

If Means has good outings I don't see how he doesn't make the postseason roster. And I agree with @sportsfan8703 Means is potentially a good option to start home game in the playoffs, but it's going to depend on this performance to close out the regular season.

[CaptainRedbeard]

A lot hinges on Mountcastle and Bautista’s health. Kjerstad will make it if they aren’t feeling confident with Mountcastle, but McKenna probably does if they are. Potentially they just go with another arm but it’s not really needed, neither is McKenna but he does provide more flexibility for defense/pinch running. 

If Bautista isn’t healthy enough to go, none of the potential RHP candidates for the last BP spot have really stood out. Baker, Baumann and Wells haven’t exactly been dominant in AAA. For that reason I think it’s possible that Flaherty makes it and they make him a 1-2 IP reliever, even with Gibson as the long RP.

Possibly as a RP Flaherty could repeatedly reach the 96-97 mph 4 seamer in shorter stints that he occasionally dials up as a SP. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

I think McKenna makes it as a defensive replacement option. 

Hall is a lock for the pen unless he has a disastrous next two weeks. 

I don't think Wells, Krehbiel, Vespi, and Zimmermann have much chance of making it. 

I also doubt Irvin makes it as he's in line behind all three of Gibson/Means/Flaherty for 4th starter/swingman role. 

I'm taking Irvin over Flaherty as it stands right now for 4th starter/swingman. Flaherty needs to show something these last 13 games to get serious consideration to make the postseason roster.

[FlaO'sFan]

Is Felix even more than a 1% chance at this point? Or even less? Has he done anything more than just some easy tossing?

Edited September 18, 2023 by FlaO'sFan

[CaptainRedbeard]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I was actually about to start a thread asking about the bullpen.

Who do you actually feel confident about in the pen?

Confident: Coulombe

Nervous: Cano, Webb, Perez

Please Throw Strikes: Hall

Peeking Through Fingers While Covering My Eyes: Fuji

We’re Already Losing, Otherwise Hyde Really Shouldn’t Have Them In: Everybody else

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

Is Felix even more than a 1% chance at this point? Or even less? Has he done anything more than just some easy tossing?

On the broadcast during the celebration after the game yesterday, Ben McDonald said Bautista threw off the mound yesterday and it sounded like it went well. 

I’d say it’s something closer to 25-50% that they get him into a game before the end of the regular season, and from that it depends on how his arm holds up and how much his effectiveness is affected. 

[Spy Fox]

7 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I'm taking Irvin over Flaherty as it stands right now for 4th starter/swingman. Flaherty needs to show something these last 13 games to get serious consideration to make the postseason roster.

For a start, I agree with you-- but I don't expect either will get a start.

For a ~2 inning relief stint in say the 5th/6th innings, I think I prefer Flaherty over Irvin in that role.