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John Means - Playoff Starter


wildcard

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I would definitely rather have Means over Gibson and Flaherty based on last night as well as overall track record. We won't know until hindsight whether this is an outlier or the start of a trend but he passed the eye test (from what I saw) as well as the results test. Very encouraging and yes, with no hitter upside he has to be in the top four, if not higher.  Of course, he could get blown up his next start because baseball is unpredictable. In 2021, he pitched 6 shutout innings his next start but then went into a bit of a pitcher slump shortly after that. 

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If you want to know maybe you should do some research.

You are the one making the claim.

Shouldn't it fall upon you to provide evidence?

We've been over this before.

You post opinion as fact and get defensive when I question you.

I politely asked for you to provide evidence for something you stated as a fact.

I wasn't rude about it, I even included a helpful tip for you to improve the grammar of your posts.

I don't think the actual evidence supports your claim.  I think a lack of swing and miss is going to lead to extended at bats which will cause the overall total number of pitches to be similar.  But that's just an opinion.

 

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There is zero evidence that says, if you get more Ks you throw more pitches. We have seen tons of starts where pitchers get lots of Ks and have their pitch count be efficient.

Pitch count generally rises because of baserunners, especially walks. The less outs you get, the more baserunners you have, the more pitches you throw.

Now, as with any rule, there are always exceptions but saying pitching to contact leads to a lower pitch count is factually wrong.

Means has been pitching to contact since he was brought up and he threw a lot of pitches and only made it through 5.

 

Edited by Sports Guy
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21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Swing and miss and getting Ks are 2 of the most important stats out there for any position.

You can say all the cliches you want there but at the end of the day, pitching to contact is very dangerous. 
 

It’s simple math. A ball put in play is an out 70-73% of the time, on average. A strikeout is an out 99% of the time. 

If you miss a bat, you cant give up contact, which means you aren’t at risk of a hit, which means no baserunners, which means they can’t score.

So, it’s pretty damn important.

Sounds like you're making an argument for Frazier?  :) A ball in play is better than a K for hitters too!

Wily vets and junk-ballers have been around for ages.  Their success/failure is about the quality of contact.  A ball in play (i.e. the strength of Frazier) is out of the pitcher's control.  So everything leading up to the point of contact matters:  pitch mix, hitter's anticipation/approach, release point, speed/movement, angle of approach, hitter's swing path and timing, defensive positioning...  Many more variables that have to line up for a low-K rate pitcher.

There's more than one path to success.

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13 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Ok,  Grayson on Thursday vs Means on Saturday  

OK, stick with me here for a second.

Means threw 96 pitches, 65 of which were strikes.

Grayson thew threw 99 pitches, 73 of which were strikes.

So what exactly is your argument?

Is it that the pitches Means was throwing were easier to hit cleanly and put into play?

And that's a good thing?

 

Edited by Can_of_corn
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1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

CLE is a weak offense, but the 79.7 EV and 47.4% GB% plays.  He has thrown a total of 257 pitches this year.  33% has been the changeup.  59% are non-fastballs.

A lot rides on his changeup (as usual).  In the SSS of 2023, CH has a 25.7 vertical drop.  Compared to 22.7 and 20.9 in 2021 and 2020 respectively.  If the CH can keep dropping, then the GB% and EV should be manageable. 

This.

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5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

MLB Baseball Player Stats & Stats Leaders - Pitches per Plate Appearance (teamrankings.com)

A lot of high K% guys also have high # of pitches per plate appearance.  

The push for K% has led to more pitches per plate appearance.

 

I’m not really seeing the evidence you are trying to show here?

That chart also coincides with OBP and walks being deemed more important than ever.

Walks are probably the #1 thing that increases pitch counts. 
 

So, approaches at the plate probably have as much to do with it as anything.

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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK, stick with me here for a second.

Means threw 96 pitches, 65 of which were strikes.

Grayson thew threw 99 pitches, 73 or which were strikes.

So what exactly is your argument?

Is it that the pitches Means was throwing were easier to hit cleanly and put into play?

And that's a good thing?

 

My argument is that Means was more effective last night than Grayson was on Thursday.

Are you arguing otherwise, because Grayson had more K’s?

How many of those strikes were 2 strike foul balls? That hurt him much more than it helped. Maybe the game Adley was calling was part of the problem too.

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