John Means - Playoff Starter

[ThomasTomasz]

24 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Not sure what you mean by "obsessing" but the fewer chances you have to take on balls in play, the better. It's incredibly important, but it isn't everything.

K-rates now, versus when Jimmy Key was around, is a lot different.  I’m sure contact rates were a whole lot higher because the emphasis was different.  We’re true three-outcome now.  Even in the day of Jimmy Key, Adam Dunn probably doesn’t exist, and he was the archetype for many hitters now.  

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

The problem for you here is that Maddux exists. Doesn’t matter if he’s an outlier. If you think every ball in play is either a hit or an out by random chance, then a career like Maddux isn’t possible.

Greg Maddux career batting average on balls in play: .286.

Chris Tillman: .287

Randy Johnson: .295

Wei Yin Chen: .296

Max Scherzer: .289

Dylan Bundy: .291

Justin Verlander: .280

Storm Davis: .280

Jeremy Guthrie: .272

Roy Halladay: .294

CC Sabathia: .296

Mike Boddicker: .277

Andy Pettitte: .312

Erik Bedard: .310

Yes, Palmer and McNally and Cuellar were in the .250s and .260s, but I have a sneaking suspicion that had a lot to do with Messers Robinson, Grich, Belanger, Johnson, Blair, et al.

Also, almost nobody suggests that batting average on balls in play is completely random, it's just mostly random. Otherwise it's kind of hard to explain why Maddux had BABIPs of .331, .311, .311, .248, .256, etc in different seasons.

Edited September 24, 2023 by DrungoHazewood

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Greg Maddux career batting average on balls in play: .286.

Chris Tillman: .287

Randy Johnson: .295

Wei Yin Chen: .296

Max Scherzer: .289

Dylan Bundy: .291

Justin Verlander: .280

Storm Davis: .280

Jeremy Guthrie: .272

Roy Halladay: .294

CC Sabathia: .296

Mike Boddicker: .277

Andy Pettitte: .312

Erik Bedard: .310

Yes, Palmer and McNally and Cuellar were in the .250s and .260s, but I have a sneaking suspicion that had a lot to do with Messers Robinson, Grich, Belanger, Johnson, Blair, et al.

Also, almost nobody suggests that batting average on balls in play is completely random, it's just mostly random. Otherwise it's kind of hard to explain why Maddux had BABIPs of .331, .311, .311, .248, .256, etc in different seasons.

Yea, those Os pitchers hard arguably the greatest defenses behind them that the sport has ever seen.

Anyone going to question that it’s easier to pitch to contact when practically every player behind you is a GGer?

[dystopia]

32 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Not sure what you mean by "obsessing" but the fewer chances you have to take on balls in play, the better. It's incredibly important, but it isn't everything.

Sports Guy seems to peddle this stuff in every single thread. That's obsessing. 

I agree the best out is a strikeout, but that doesn't mean pitchers can't pitch to contact and be successful.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

Sports Guy seems to peddle this stuff in every single thread. That's obsessing. 

I agree the best out is a strikeout, but that doesn't mean pitchers can't pitch to contact and be successful.

How many guys with below average K rates are above average pitchers?

Sure it can be done, but it's a lot more rare.

I also question how many are actually pitching to contact and not just failing to strike guys out.

Palmer, I believe he pitched to contact.  Some of the other guys, I think they just don't miss bats.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[zweem]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many guys with below average K rates are above average pitchers?

Sure it can be done, but it's a lot more rare.

I also question how many are actually pitching to contact and not just failing to strike guys out.

Palmer, I believe he pitched to contact.  Some of the other guys, I think they just don't miss bats.

So for you and SG command has nothing to do with missing bats??? 

Zenni optical could be a difference maker for you two.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, zweem said:

So for you and SG command has nothing to do with missing bats??? 

Zenni optical could be a difference maker for you two.

How did you take what I said and come to that conclusion?

I'm honestly curious.

I think I might not be the one to need a new set of glasses.  (btw I'm already a customer of Zenni)

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, those Os pitchers hard arguably the greatest defenses behind them that the sport has ever seen.

Anyone going to question that it’s easier to pitch to contact when practically every player behind you is a GGer?

And also when a lot of teams had a throwaway spot in the lineup or three. Pitchers "batted" in the AL up through 1972, and in 1973 there were 28 regulars or semi-regulars with an OPS+ of 70 or lower. For reference, in 1973 a 70 OPS+ was about .610.  There were almost 50 regulars in '73 with an OPS+ under .650.  And 26 who hit one or zero homers in 300+ PAs.

Why try to strike everyone out when 2, 3, 4 spots in the lineup were almost never going to hit a ball 325'?

[dystopia]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many guys with below average K rates are above average pitchers?

Sure it can be done, but it's a lot more rare.

You tell me. I'm not even sure where I would find that information. 

[Just Regular]

I'm going off memory from I guess now 20 years ago, but I think in Moneyball when Michael Lewis was doing the Voros McCracken synopsis, the illuminating anecdotes were look at how Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina types oscillate between high and low BABIP seasons.

Pedro 1999-2001 had a BABIP run of .323, .236, .307, suggesting even demigods like 2000 Pedro were still in the hands of the baseball gods.

With most of this year in the books, here are 2023's Top/Bottom 5 among qualified Arms, as preview of whose ERA's are probably going up/down next year.

Fortunate: Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Jordan Lyles*, Luis Castillo, Freddy Peralta

Unfortunate: Dylan Cease, Brady Singer, Kevin Gausman, Charlie Morton, Jesus Luzardo

*OMG, lol, lol, lol

Set 2023 Jordan Lyles as a proof of concept bookend next to 2000 Pedro.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many guys with below average K rates are above average pitchers?

Sure it can be done, but it's a lot more rare.

I also question how many are actually pitching to contact and not just failing to strike guys out.

Palmer, I believe he pitched to contact.  Some of the other guys, I think they just don't miss bats.

This year there are 181 pitchers with 50+ IP and at least 8.8 K/9. The league average is 8.7. Their median ERA+ is 118, well above average.

There have been 153 with 50+ innings and 8.6 K/9 or fewer. Their median is 98, or slightly below average.

The reason the total of these groups has a median of something like 108 is that the bad pitchers don't meet the 50 innings threshold.

Edited September 24, 2023 by DrungoHazewood

[Aristotelian]

So in the above 8 pages, I think we have established that it is harder, but possible, to succeed with a below average K rate. I think we can also agree that Means has a track record of success as an above average (but not elite) pitcher (3.75 ERA, 122 ERA+) with below average K rate (7.6). Not to belabor this further, but the real question to ask (which I think Sports Guy may be getting at) is whether Means' current 3.1 K/9 is concerning. The more important comparison is not to league average, but to Means' own career norms. Especially because he is coming off TJ, a big change in K/9 could indicate a major dropoff or change in stuff. 

My feeling with his second start was that he looked pretty bad despite allowing few runs. Last night from what I saw the eye test matched the results. I doubt he will succeed if he continues with 3.1 K/9, but I think if he pitches the way he did last night he will get more K's. Overall, very comfortable with him as a playoff starter and a middle rotation guy heading into next year, but have to be concerned in view of his TJ.

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So in the above 8 pages, I think we have established that it is harder, but possible, to succeed with a below average K rate. I think we can also agree that Means has a track record of success as an above average (but not elite) pitcher (3.75 ERA, 122 ERA+) with below average K rate (7.6). Not to belabor this further, but the real question to ask (which I think Sports Guy may be getting at) is whether Means' current 3.1 K/9 is concerning. The more important comparison is not to league average, but to Means' own career norms. Especially because he is coming off TJ, a big change in K/9 could indicate a major dropoff or change in stuff. 

My feeling with his second start was that he looked pretty bad despite allowing few runs. Last night from what I saw the eye test matched the results. I doubt he will succeed if he continues with 3.1 K/9, but I think if he pitches the way he did last night he will get more K's. Overall, very comfortable with him as a playoff starter and a middle rotation guy heading into next year, but have to be concerned in view of his TJ.

Means' 3.1 K/9 isn't going to be sustained anymore than his .135 BABIP is. 

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Means' 3.1 K/9 isn't going to be sustained anymore than his .135 BABIP is. 

Right. If Means were to have a 3.1 K/9 going forward that would be unfortunate because that would also mean his ERA would be well north of 5.00.

In the last 10 years there have been two pitchers with 100+ innings and a K/9 under 4.0. Both in 2013, Jake Westbrook and Scott Diamond.  Westbrook had an ERA of 4.63 in his last Major League season. Diamond a 5.43 and would pitch just one MLB inning after that season. 

Means going forward is going to have to approximate his career strikeout rate or he's going to have a hard time. The further from league average the harder.

[Just Regular]

HOU-CLE back to back are low K opponents.    CLE is famous for it in conjunction with being a bunch of slap hitters, but the Astros blend contact and power in the ideal.

They are 2/3 to the Nationals in fewest team K this year.     It was notable doing this sort, in case we see them, that the Mariners and Twins are at the other end of the spectrum, the only two Clubs over 1500 K already this season.     MIN is 75 K's clear of everyone - five regulars over 30% K rate.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=8&qual=200&sortcol=9&sortdir=default&pagenum=1