Most Valuable Oriole 2023

[Birdland in NC]

I vote for Adley, because I think the whole team has taken on his personality and his positivity has an affect on how everybody on the team plays. I’m a big believer in team psychology.    

[ShoelesJoe]

43 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

On MASN they were talking about how many tough choices there are this year.   Who do you think is the Most Valuable Oriole 2023?

Not a tough choice, the MVP is Gunnar and it’s not particularly close. His defense, his offense, his base running, and his strut. The kid’s been a stud. 

[jabba72]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The team was 80-48 (.625) with Bautista.  They’re 19-11 (.633) without him.   He was very valuable but nowhere near the value of a very position player.   

If they blow the doors off the Red Sox, that will make me feel a lot more relieved about heading into the playoffs without Bautista. During that recent losing streak I was starting to wonder if Bautista was the biggest reason for the O's success this year.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The team was 80-48 (.625) with Bautista.  They’re 19-11 (.633) without him.   He was very valuable but nowhere near the value of a very good position player.   

Completely disagree. This team built who they were on the back of the pen and him especially.

They aren’t this good or in this position without him. 
 

What they have done in the small sample size or games is great but it’s 1/4 of the games he was available for this year. Plus, we have seen the BP struggle more.

Over the last 30 days, the BP ERA is almost 4, the K rate is the worst in the league, BB rate remained excellent and the HR rate is about the middle of the pack. FIP is 9th.WAR is 19th. WPA is 22nd and is a negative number.

Through Aug 27, the ERA was about 1/2 run less.  The K rate was third best in baseball, HR rate was the best and FIP was the best, as was WAR. WPA was 4th.

The pen drop off is big and on this team, especially how they played for the first several months of the year, that drop off would not have been good and we would be fighting for a WC spot, at best.

[Osornot]

This is Adley's team.  Bautista is a close second - we would not be where we are without him IMO. 

What's the best part? I go back and look at the names and Gunnar and Bradish - could be them also.  

I do believe if we get to the WS Bradish will be a good reason.  If so, can I switch?

 

[Sports Guy]

Btw, Adley has gotten past Gunnar in terms of fWAR.

[foxfield]

It is a very tough call for me. 
 

Adley, Gunnar, Bradish and Bautista are all deserving and you arguably could include Hyde as well.  
 

We frequently say that the Orioles can go as far as their pitching takes them. Well, this year it has taken them to the best record in th AL. Tough to vote against Kyle Bradish or Felix Bautista based on that distinction. They have both been fabulous. 
 

Gunnar Henderson has continued to shine after a slow start. He will certainly win AL Rookie of the year. He has been tremendous in the second half with the pressure rising. 
 

Adley Rutschman, turned this franchise into a winner the day he arrived. He seemed to take a step backwards offensively and defensively early but has come on strong down the stretch. 
 

Hyde has merely guided these kids to a level that very few anticipated or expected. He has gone from the guy holding the job until the team is ready for a real manager to the guy most want to keep at the helm. He will win AL Manager of the year. 
 

There are others who have made strong contributions but these 5 clearly stand out. Picking just one seems almost unfair. But very reluctantly, if forced to pick only one, I would have to say the MVO for 2023 is Adley Rutschman. By a whisker. 

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Completely disagree. This team built who they were on the back of the pen and him especially.

They aren’t this good or in this position without him. 
 

You’re right, they’re not.  And I never said that they would be.  He was very valuable.  Just not the most valuable, IMO.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, Adley has gotten past Gunnar in terms of fWAR.

It’s been great to see Adley playing so well of late.  At the 144 game mark, it was:

Adley 3.8 fWAR, 3.4 rWAR.

Gunnar 4.1 fWAR, 5.4 rWAR

Now, its:

Adley 4.8 fWAR, 4.2 rWAR

Gunnar 4.7 fWAR, 6.2 fWAR.

So, in a 14-game span, Adley’s been worth 1.0 fWAR, 0.8 rWAR, while Gunnar’s been worth 0.6 fWAR, 0.8 rWAR.  All those numbers are very good for both players, as 14 games is only about 9% of a season   You’d take those numbers any day.  

 

[dzorange]

I find Gunnar's fWAR to be more realistic than his bWAR.

I do think Gunnar is the better prospect, and at this point probably the better player. But I think we forget how not good he was to start this season.

I'm going Adley because of his consistency, the culture, and even his representing the Orioles in the All-Star Game and the Home Run Derby. I guess it depends on how you define value.

But Adley passing Gunnar in fWAR over the past handful of games is enough for me to still choose Adley. I also think it's reasonable to think that both players somewhat underachieved as a whole this year. Maybe that's the wrong word to use as well, but expectations are likely higher for both next season.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, dzorange said:

I find Gunnar's fWAR to be more realistic… I also think it's reasonable to think that both players somewhat underachieved as a whole this year. Maybe that's the wrong word to use as well, but expectations are likely higher for both next season.

I understand the case for Adley underachieving.  What’s the case that Gunnar underachieved?  He’s been pretty much exactly what I expected offensively, and a bit better defensively.  Now, I will expect a bit more from him next year, just based on his trajectory over this season.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I understand the case for Adley underachieving.  What’s the case that Gunnar underachieved?  He’s been pretty much exactly what I expected offensively, and a bit better defensively.  Now, I will expect a bit more from him next year, just based on his trajectory over this season.  

Well if you thought he was going to do what he did his first twenty games in 2022 for the entirety of 2023 I could see where you would be a bit disappointed.

[springglen]

First off, discovered this forum this year and have loved following- thanks to all who organize/participate. Been an O's fan since I can remember and spent post-college years in Baltimore (Fells Point) during end of the last millennium. Figured this would be a good topic for my first post.

I think choice here comes down to how do you define MVP. If it is the player who has had best season from a statistical performance standpoint then likely have to go with Gunnar (although Bradish is very close). It if is the player who is most valuable to team (ie. taking them off team from beginning of year would have greatest impact) then I think Adley is the run away winner.  

Looking forward to being back in Baltimore next weekend for some playoff baseball!

[Aristotelian]

Adley, Gunnar, and Bradish all have a great case. Felix too if only he hasn't gotten injured. Instead of picking one, I will use my two cents to nominate O'Hearn over Gibson for the last spot even though I wouldn't vote for him.

[dzorange]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I understand the case for Adley underachieving.  What’s the case that Gunnar underachieved?  He’s been pretty much exactly what I expected offensively, and a bit better defensively.  Now, I will expect a bit more from him next year, just based on his trajectory over this season.  

Underachieved is the wrong word. He's just developing. But between his slow start to the season (.700 OPS through end of May), him moving around defensively between SS and 3B (seems better at short), it took him a while to find his groove.

Basically, I think a full season of Gunnar today is considerably better than 2023 Gunnar as a whole. And that's without any further development.

Edited September 28, 2023 by dzorange