Game 1 Starter

[ChuckS]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he's a vet, he's earned it.

I know you are joking, but if we go the vet angle…..I’d argue for the others based on tenure with the team. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, ChuckS said:

I know you are joking, but if we go the vet angle…..I’d argue for the others based on tenure with the team. 

I want the best starters pitching as often as possible.

[ChuckS]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I want the best starters pitching as often as possible.

I think most of us can agree on that. 

[Malike]

I'm sure they'll put the best on the mound for the first three games. Gibby will be in the pen I'd guess.

[MGH5208]

I'll continue to trust the group that won 101 to continue to make the best decisions, but my preference would be Bradish, Means, GRod, Gibson.

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he's a vet, he's earned it.

He did have a 2.45 ERA in his 5 September starts.  He also beat Texas when he faced them in April, allowing 2 runs in 7 innings.   So, you could make a case for him. 

[RVAOsFan]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He did have a 2.45 ERA in his 5 September starts.  He also beat Texas when he faced them in April, allowing 2 runs in 7 innings.   So, you could make a case for him. 

You know I kinda figured Kremer over Gibson for 4th starter but when you say it like that maybe Kremer ends up in the pen 

[jrobb21613]

It'll probably be Bradish but I would not be  surprised if it's Means especially now that it's Texas and they have a heavy lh hitting lineup. If its not Means game one he'll get the ball game 2

Edited October 5, 2023 by jrobb21613

[Brooks The Great]

5 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

It'll probably be Bradish but I would not be  surprised if it's Means especially now that it's Texas and they have a heavy lh hitting lineup. If its not Means game one he'll get the ball game 2

It has to be Bradish. If the series goes 5 games, you want to have the option of Bradish getting a second start in Game 5 if needed. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball and absolutely dominant for a long stretch.

I like the idea of Grayson going in Game 3 in Texas, but I think he's best for Game 2. That would allow us to have Grayson also ready to go in Game 5 in case Bradish suffers an injury early in game 5.

Whichever pitcher starts Game 3 wouldn't be available for Game 5. So Means should start Game 3.

[sportsfan8703]

Bradish, Grayson, then Kremer/Means. 

As much as a like the idea of a lefty starter with the wall and it’s advantages… there are more pros to having the rookie start at home versus the road. 

Just take care of business. 

[Moshagge3]

36 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Bradish, Grayson, then Kremer/Means. 

As much as a like the idea of a lefty starter with the wall and it’s advantages… there are more pros to having the rookie start at home versus the road. 

Just take care of business. 

Worth noting that Rodriguez is from Texas and could have family and friends in the crowd in Arlington if we are considering rookie nerves as a factor.

[Birdland757]

Test.

[e16bball]

Not much difference for Texas between LHPs and RHPs. They’re 115 wRC+ against lefties and 114 wRC+ against righties, so they pretty much just smash everyone. Like basically everyone else but us, they’re worse against power pitchers (higher Ks, higher BBS) than finesse guys, and they’ve fared better against fly ball pitchers than against ground ball heavy guys.

Not a ton of promising data on pitch types either. The only pitch that they haven’t been well-above-average against is the curveball (they’ve actually been below-average against those). They’re basically best in the league against sliders, cutters, and changeups, which is a little daunting, and it’s not like they’re weak against the fastball either. 

The one positive thing I could find is that they’re not nearly as good on the road (103 wRC+) as they are at home (126 wRC+). Having the potential for 3 games away from their ballpark might be our best advantage against these guys — though that certainly didn’t help the Rays (or us a few months ago). 

 

As to the question of the order in which to deploy our starters, I don’t see any strong reason to do anything other than go in order of quality. Which means rolling out Bradish and Grayson in games one and two. 

They don’t struggle against lefties, and I think there’s (very) significant reason for concern that Means will be vulnerable to these guys. He’s not a high velocity guy and he doesn’t miss many bats. He’s a fly ball pitcher, and they’re a team looking to elevate the ball with authority. His best weapon right now is the changeup, a pitch they generally mash. And they just got done handling Civale and Eflin, who are both relatively similar pitchers. Anything can (and will) happen, but I don’t see a strong basis for trying to rush Means out there in Game 2. 

I think the key to this series is to try to defend the Yard. Try to jump out to a strong lead before they get back to Arlington where they pulverize the ball. To me, we want Bradish and Grayson pitching the two home games, and potentially being in a position where they could come back (as a tandem?) for a Game 5 if necessary. I’d use some combination of Means, Kremer, and Gibson to handle the bulk innings at their place and try to ride a hot hand if there is one.

[Sports Guy]

Gibson had good numbers vs the Rangers and has pitched well in that park.

 

[Billy F-Face3]

12 hours ago, e16bball said:

Not much difference for Texas between LHPs and RHPs. They’re 115 wRC+ against lefties and 114 wRC+ against righties, so they pretty much just smash everyone. Like basically everyone else but us, they’re worse against power pitchers (higher Ks, higher BBS) than finesse guys, and they’ve fared better against fly ball pitchers than against ground ball heavy guys.

Not a ton of promising data on pitch types either. The only pitch that they haven’t been well-above-average against is the curveball (they’ve actually been below-average against those). They’re basically best in the league against sliders, cutters, and changeups, which is a little daunting, and it’s not like they’re weak against the fastball either. 

The one positive thing I could find is that they’re not nearly as good on the road (103 wRC+) as they are at home (126 wRC+). Having the potential for 3 games away from their ballpark might be our best advantage against these guys — though that certainly didn’t help the Rays (or us a few months ago). 

 

As to the question of the order in which to deploy our starters, I don’t see any strong reason to do anything other than go in order of quality. Which means rolling out Bradish and Grayson in games one and two. 

They don’t struggle against lefties, and I think there’s (very) significant reason for concern that Means will be vulnerable to these guys. He’s not a high velocity guy and he doesn’t miss many bats. He’s a fly ball pitcher, and they’re a team looking to elevate the ball with authority. His best weapon right now is the changeup, a pitch they generally mash. And they just got done handling Civale and Eflin, who are both relatively similar pitchers. Anything can (and will) happen, but I don’t see a strong basis for trying to rush Means out there in Game 2. 

I think the key to this series is to try to defend the Yard. Try to jump out to a strong lead before they get back to Arlington where they pulverize the ball. To me, we want Bradish and Grayson pitching the two home games, and potentially being in a position where they could come back (as a tandem?) for a Game 5 if necessary. I’d use some combination of Means, Kremer, and Gibson to handle the bulk innings at their place and try to ride a hot hand if there is one.

If what you say is true, than you would want Kyle Gibson pitching game 3 or 4 rather than Means or Kremer because Gibson is a groundball pitcher and can throw the curveball, where as Means is a flyball pitcher whos hest pitch is a changeup and Kremer throws alot of cutters. You said the Rangers demolish the cutter and the changeup.

It doesn't really sound like they have much of a weakness to me. But we do have a small sample size of our pitchers against them in both Texas and Baltimore to look at. 

As a side note, Tyler Wells performed very good against them in Texas at the beginning of the season and so did Danny Coulombe. They saved our bacon in the game Bradish took a line drive to the leg.