The O’s - Rangers ALDS

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Long shot at the moment but Scherzer could perhaps be a factor for game 5 if it goes that far.

I don’t know why they’d waste a roster spot on the off chance he can return by Game 5. 

[oriolediehard]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The over managing in the playoffs can cost you a series in a hurry. 

The Rays manager took Blake Snell out in the 2020 playoffs when he was unhittable and it cost them the series.

[oriolediehard]

4 hours ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

I read this too.  I was thinking as it was becoming obvious that we were gonna see the Rangers that, as much as this is the team that I didn't want to see, we can beat them.  I think we beat them with pitching, but we need a consistent strike zone from the umps.  I hate saying that as I hate the blame game that some play with saying the umps cost us or whatever.  My point is, if the zone is consistently a ball width or touching the tv/computer line thru-out, we win.  If it is a strict zone and both teams have to throw it in the box, we might be in trouble.

MLB puts the best Umps in the Playoffs.

[ChuckS]

When will ALDS rosters/starters be announced?

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

When will ALDS rosters/starters be announced?

Probably not until morning of Game 1. 

[eddie83]

Everyone is not blaming Schneider but the GM Atkins. All pre planned 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, oriolediehard said:

MLB puts the best Umps in the Playoffs.

Best for which starting pitcher?  Statcast has been around since 2015 and pitch/fx (later TrackMan) since 2006.  Lots of big data sets sloshing around out there to play with.  If MLB does, in fact, make an effort to assign the "best" umps to the post-season then okay fine, but I would like to know what yardstick these umps are measured by.

Pick any random game thread from the 2023 season and you are likely to find credible complaints about that game's strike zone.  I wonder if we've reached the moment where choosing a starting pitcher in a playoff scenario ought to be delayed until the umpiring rotation has been announced.

[Malike]

1 hour ago, oriolediehard said:

MLB puts the best Umps in the Playoffs.

But do they?

Edited October 6, 2023 by Malike

[dystopia]

10 hours ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

He’s the worst manager in the East and that’s saying something with Boone still employed. 

That team isn’t going anywhere until they get rid of him and Ross Atkins. 

[btownoriole]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Thought it might be interestibg to recap the six previous meetings between these teams.

April 3: O’s 2, Rangers 0 — Kyle Bradish started this game and looked good but was struck in the foot by a Jonah Heim line drive with one out in the second inning.  Danny Coulombe pitched 1.2 innings of scoreless relief, and then Tyler Wells, who had been scheduled to start the next day, came on and threw 5 shutout innings   Meanwhile, the O’s scored single runs off Jon Gray in the 4th and 5th on solo homers by Gunnar Henderson and Jorge Mateo.  Felix Bautista made sure they stood up, shutting down Texas in the 9th for a 2-0 game.

April 4: Orioles 7, Rangers 2 — The O’s jumped all over Rangers starter Andrew Heaney, scoring 5 runs in the 2nd inning and 2 more in the 3rd to drive Heaney from the game.  Ryan Mountcastle hit a 3-run homer to cap off the 2nd inning rally, and Jorge Mateo had a 2-run homer in the 3rd.  That was all the O’s needed, as Kyle Gibson, moving up his start by a day, allowed solo homers to Adolis Garcia in the 2nd inning and Nathaniel Lowe in the 6th, but allowed only 4 other hits and no walks in 7 innings of work.  Logan Gillaspie and Cionel Perez closed it out.

April 5: Rangers 5, O’s 2 — Grayson Rodriguez was called up for his major league debut, facing Jacob DeGrom.  Grayson was shaky in his first inning, allowing a walk, a wild pitch, a double and a single before escaping the inning.  The O’s got the two runs back in the fifth inning on an Austin Hays fielder’s choice and an Adam Frazier single   Grayson left the game tied 2-2 after 5 innings.  But Austin Voth allowed a 2-run homer to Josh Jung in the 6th, and Keegan Akin yielded a run-scoring double in the 7th, snd the O’s were shut down the rest of the way to fall 5-2.

May 26: Rangers 12, O’s 2.   Grayson Rodriguez kept Texas reasonably in check for 3 innings, though allowing a 2-run homer to Leody Taveras in the second inning.  But in the 4th, Texas ambushed Grayson for 7 runs, including a 2-run homer by Robbie Grossman and a grand slam by Corey Seager.  Meanwhile, Jon Gray dominated the O’s, allowing only 4 hits in 7 innings, including a solo homer by Adley Rutschman in the first inning for the only run he allowed.  The O’s scored an 8th inning run, answered by Texas with 2 off Ryan McKenna.   It was never a game after the 4th inning.  Grayson was sent to AAA following this debacle.

May 27: Rangers 5, O’s 3 — This wasn’t as close as it sounds, as the O’s scored 2 in the 9th to make it interesting. Dean Kremer started and pitched decently, allowing single runs in the 2nd and 4th.  He was pulled with one out in the 7th after walking a batter, and Bryan Baker performed his speciality, allowing inherited runners to score, yielding a double and a single to cash in Kremer’s walk and the runner on 2B. Meanwhile, Andrew Heaney, who the O’s had crushed in Texas, was dominating the O’s, holding them scoreless until the bottom of the 7th, when Austin Hays hit a solo homer.  The Rangers clawed that back on a Keegan Akin error when he dropped a throw at 1B, to make it 5-1.   With two outs in the 9th, the O’s scored twice on back to back doubles by Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Urias, but it was too little to late, as the O’s fell 5-3.   

May 28: O’s 3, Rangers 2 — This was a thriller.  The O’s scored twice in the first off Cody Bradford on an Austin Hays single and a Ryan Mountcastle sac fly, but mounted no offense for 6 innings after that.  Meanwhile, Kyle Bradish cruised through 6.2 innings, allowing only a 5th inning run on a Marcus Semien double.  But in the 8th, Yennier Cano allowed a game-tying double to Corey Seager.   The O’s answered in the bottom of the 8th, as a Cedric Mullins leadoff walk was followed by singles by Rutschman and Hays, the latter hit plating Mullins for a 3-2 lead.  The Rangers held it there, and the O’s brought in Felix Bautista for the 9th.  The Mountain responded by striking out Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung and Jonah Heim in succession, putting an end to the season series at a 3-3 draw.   

As you can see, the O’s shut down the Texas offense pretty well in the three games they won, allowing 0, 2 and 2 runs in those games.  Similarly, the O’s scored only 2, 2 and 3 in the three games they lost.  

This is a great summary.  It’s been so long since these teams met it’s hard to get a feel for what to expect.  Then reading these game summaries it’s easy to see why - a lot of the key pitchers from the season series game outcomes (deGrom, Gray, Bautista, Voth, Akin) won’t be in this series.  From the O’s side Rodriguez and Henderson have grown tremendously and on the Rangers side they now have Carter and Chapman.

Regardless, this is going to be a tough series.

[tntoriole]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here come the Rangers, 90-72 during the regular season and 2-0 vs. Tampa, outscoring the Rays 11-1 in the two games.  

During the season, the teams split 3-3, with the O’s taking 2 of 3 in Texas in April, and the Rangers taking 2 of 3 at OPACY in May.
 

No pitching matchups have been announced, but Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15 ERA), Dane Dunning (12-7, 3.70 ERA), and Martin Perez 
(10-4, 4.45 ERA) are all available for game one.  Presumptively, it will be Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 overall;  4-2, 2.79 with Texas) in Game 2 and Nathan Eovaldi (12-5, 3.63) in Game 3.  

The Rangers had the top offense in the AL at 5.44 runs/game (1st) , 113 OPS+ (2nd).   The O’s were 4th in both categories at 4.98 R/G, 107 OPS+.   The Rangers have a very balanced lineup with 5 players over 110 OPS and another 4 at 100 or better.   Corey Seager leads the way at .327/.390/.623 (170 OPS+), 33 homers and 96 RBI.  Adolis Garcia had an .836 OPS with 39 homers and 107 RBI, and Marcus Semien chipped in 29 homers and 100 RBI.   

The bullpen is the Rangers’ weak spot, at 4.77 ERA (11th in the AL) and a 48% save rate (dead last).  But, it will be shored up a bit by whichever starters are in the bullpen. 

All in all, it looks like the burden will be on the O’s lineup to score some early runs, drive up pitch counts, and get into that Texas pen.  The Texas offense isn’t one that’s easily held down. 


 

Pretty accurate.  Thanks.  Our offense has not been good at all lately and Texas destroyed Tampa pitching.  Not feeling optimistic about us winning but hopefully we play like we are capable of. 

[Frobby]

I respect the Rsngers, but I don’t think we should deify them based on two good games against Tampa.  They went 15-14 in September/October to close the regular season.  Generally, they played very streaky baseball.  From the all star break on, they had winning streaks of 6, 8, 6 and 6, and losing streaks of 8, 7 out of 8, and 4.  The O’s were the opposite of that, never losing more than 4 in a row all year, never getting swept in a series.   We’ll see what Texas team shows up this weekend, but I have confidence in our O’s.

[Aristotelian]

I wanted the Rangers but still have no idea what to expect. The way an elimination tournament works, any of the high seeds is going to meet a "hot" team coming off a wild card series win. Whether the layoff helps or hurts the higher seed is hard to predict. They have #3 offense by OPS and R, we have #7 offense by R, #13 by OPS (let's call our offense 10-ish). We are #7 in ERA and R allowed, they are #18 in ERA, #13 in R (call it 15-ish). I think we have a slight edge overall but the talent is very even on these teams with offense favoring the Rangers and pitching favoring us. I can see any outcome from 3-0 to 0-3. 

[Sports Guy]

The Rangers pose a lot of problems for the Os. Those of us who wanted the Rangers may end up regretting that.

After the benefit of doing more research on them, Tampa was the team you wanted to play.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 I can see any outcome from 3-0 to 0-3. 

It would be incredibly disappointing to be swept in the ALDS after going 1.75 years without having ever been swept in a series.