SP Trade Market

[CaptainRedbeard]

I took a stab at an overview of the potential SP trade market by listing all of the SP projected by >2.0 fWAR in 2024 and grouping teams based on their buyer/seller status.  Seattle is a great match as a trade partner that has a surplus of starting pitching and is going to be looking to add hitters. I don't think there's any other teams that fall into the same group, but there are some interesting names elsewhere that could be available.

Burnes, Cease and Bieber are the familiar names that definitely could be in play, but no guarantees their teams will make them available.  All took a step back in 2023 so there's some red flags, especially for Bieber. Beyond them, Skubal and Ragans looked like potential aces in partial seasons in 2023 and have a lot of team control left, but DET/KC will likely be resistant to moving them for that reason. 

LAA really should go for a rebuild at this point, so IMO the LAA pair of Detmers and Canning could be the most realistic secondary targets if SEA goes a different route and/or the Orioles miss out on (or pass on) the bigger names. I also have NYM as "unlikely sellers" but I do think they'll look to move Quintana, who isn't exciting but could be solid.

Any favorites here? Am I missing anybody? Should any teams be grouped differently?

 

SP Surplus / Likely Sellers

SEA: Gilbert, Woo, Miller

Potential Sellers

MIL: Burnes, Peralta

CWS: Cease

CLE: Bieber, McKenzie

PIT: Keller

DET: Skubal, Olson

KC: Ragans

LAA: Detmers, Canning

WAS, OAK, COL: None

Unlikely Sellers

NYM: Senga, Quintana

MIA: Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera

Holding or Buyers, Not Sellers

PHI, ATL, TB, TEX, MIN, TOR, NYY, HOU, LAD, BOS, CHC, ARI, SD, SF, CIN, STL

[Sports Guy]

Ragans wouldn’t be available.

Disagree with labeling any team as not selling. The Braves, for example, very easily could trade a starter, especially Fried. 
 

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

Why would SEA be considered a likely seller? They are a contender. They would only trade for a player that helps their MLB team.

Keller might be the most interesting name.on this list.

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I took a stab at an overview of the potential SP trade market by listing all of the SP projected by >2.0 fWAR in 2024 and grouping teams based on their buyer/seller status.  Seattle is a great match as a trade partner that has a surplus of starting pitching and is going to be looking to add hitters. I don't think there's any other teams that fall into the same group, but there are some interesting names elsewhere that could be available.

Burnes, Cease and Bieber are the familiar names that definitely could be in play, but no guarantees their teams will make them available.  All took a step back in 2023 so there's some red flags, especially for Bieber. Beyond them, Skubal and Ragans looked like potential aces in partial seasons in 2023 and have a lot of team control left, but DET/KC will likely be resistant to moving them for that reason. 

LAA really should go for a rebuild at this point, so IMO the LAA pair of Detmers and Canning could be the most realistic secondary targets if SEA goes a different route and/or the Orioles miss out on (or pass on) the bigger names. I also have NYM as "unlikely sellers" but I do think they'll look to move Quintana, who isn't exciting but could be solid.

Any favorites here? Am I missing anybody? Should any teams be grouped differently?

 

SP Surplus / Likely Sellers

SEA: Gilbert, Woo, Miller

Potential Sellers

MIL: Burnes, Peralta

CWS: Cease

CLE: Bieber, McKenzie

PIT: Keller

DET: Skubal, Olson

KC: Ragans

LAA: Detmers, Canning

WAS, OAK, COL: None

Unlikely Sellers

NYM: Senga, Quintana

MIA: Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera

Holding or Buyers, Not Sellers

PHI, ATL, TB, TEX, MIN, TOR, NYY, HOU, LAD, BOS, CHC, ARI, SD, SF, CIN, STL

I don’t believe the Angels will go rebuild and I don’t see us as a good match.  They have a young SS, 2B, 1B, and Trout and Moniak.   Having said that, Detmers seems like a potential breakout pitcher.   I mentioned him previously.  Would love to get him.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Why would SEA be considered a likely seller? They are a contender. They would only trade for a player that helps their MLB team.

Keller might be the most interesting name.on this list.

Seattle needs hitting and they have pitching they can trade to get it.

[CaptainRedbeard]

26 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Why would SEA be considered a likely seller? They are a contender. They would only trade for a player that helps their MLB team.

Keller might be the most interesting name.on this list.

They have a surplus of SP but you’re right they aren’t “sellers” in that they are contenders and are only going to want to acquire players to help their MLB team. But with Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales in addition to Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Woo and Miller, they are likely to consider trading from that group to add hitters. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I took a stab at an overview of the potential SP trade market by listing all of the SP projected by >2.0 fWAR in 2024 and grouping teams based on their buyer/seller status.  Seattle is a great match as a trade partner that has a surplus of starting pitching and is going to be looking to add hitters. I don't think there's any other teams that fall into the same group, but there are some interesting names elsewhere that could be available.

Burnes, Cease and Bieber are the familiar names that definitely could be in play, but no guarantees their teams will make them available.  All took a step back in 2023 so there's some red flags, especially for Bieber. Beyond them, Skubal and Ragans looked like potential aces in partial seasons in 2023 and have a lot of team control left, but DET/KC will likely be resistant to moving them for that reason. 

LAA really should go for a rebuild at this point, so IMO the LAA pair of Detmers and Canning could be the most realistic secondary targets if SEA goes a different route and/or the Orioles miss out on (or pass on) the bigger names. I also have NYM as "unlikely sellers" but I do think they'll look to move Quintana, who isn't exciting but could be solid.

Any favorites here? Am I missing anybody? Should any teams be grouped differently?

 

SP Surplus / Likely Sellers

SEA: Gilbert, Woo, Miller

Potential Sellers

MIL: Burnes, Peralta

CWS: Cease

CLE: Bieber, McKenzie

PIT: Keller

DET: Skubal, Olson

KC: Ragans

LAA: Detmers, Canning

WAS, OAK, COL: None

Unlikely Sellers

NYM: Senga, Quintana

MIA: Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera

Holding or Buyers, Not Sellers

PHI, ATL, TB, TEX, MIN, TOR, NYY, HOU, LAD, BOS, CHC, ARI, SD, SF, CIN, STL

I think CLE is similar to SEA.  But could be willing to trade solid controllable upside arms for bats.  Both can use MI, 3B, and OF improvement too which makes with the top of our deck.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Seattle needs hitting and they have pitching they can trade to get it.

It would make more sense for them to trade prospects.

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Seattle needs hitting and they have pitching they can trade to get it.

We don’t have any impact bats worth giving up a pitcher for.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It would make more sense for them to trade prospects.

Guys like Woo and Miller aren’t much more than prospects.

[zweem]

On 10/16/2023 at 6:55 PM, Sports Guy said:

Seattle needs hitting and they have pitching they can trade to get it.

Amen--- Mounty and Hays gets you what???

[DirtyBird]

26 minutes ago, zweem said:

Amen--- Mounty and Hays gets you what???

They didn't get us consistent offensive production

[PsychoBird68]

As we know the O's won't be spending at the top of the market for starting pitchers so any of the trade candidates listed above would be great options..We also know Elias will be looking for bargains and bounce back candidates in the trade and free agent market...I like Alek Manoah as a good bounceback trade target and they could be interested in Mountcastle considering he tears the cover off the ball in Toronto    

[CaptainRedbeard]

7 hours ago, PsychoBird68 said:

As we know the O's won't be spending at the top of the market for starting pitchers so any of the trade candidates listed above would be great options..We also know Elias will be looking for bargains and bounce back candidates in the trade and free agent market...I like Alek Manoah as a good bounceback trade target and they could be interested in Mountcastle considering he tears the cover off the ball in Toronto    

Manoah is an interesting one, although it seems likely the Blue Jays will have a spot to slot him back into the rotation with Ryu departing in free agency. They do have a strong rotation though so they could consider dealing from that strength.

Generally traded between division rivals are pretty rare, but they can happen. Boston is another team similar to Toronto where they are close to having a surplus of SP, but I just don’t expect they’ll deal with the Orioles. Otherwise, I’d also like Nick Pivetta as a target. 

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, zweem said:

Amen--- Mounty and Hays gets you what???

Younger Kyle Gibson?