Worrying about RISP regression

[Frobby]

Steve Melewski wrote an article yesterday about how the O’s success this year with runners in scoring position would be hard to replicate.  In short, the O’s overall slash line was .255/.321/.421, but with RISP it was .287/.356/.481.   A typical team hit about  16 points higher in RISP situations than it does otherwise, but the O’s were +95.   That resulted in the O’s scoring about 50 runs more than a team with their overall stats would be expected to have.   And, conventional wisdom is that extraordinary success in RISP hitting is not the product of a repeatable skill, but more or less just random variation from one year to another.   

So, what if anything should the team be doing to combat an expected regression in RISP hitting, and a consequential reduction in run production?  How can the O’s compensate for slippage in this respect?

I think improving our OBP, especially when leading off an inning, will be a key.  The O’s were 7th in the AL in OBP at .321, but 11th in OBP leading off an inning, at .305.   We were particularly bad leading off the game, at .272, 13th in the AL.  Just like RISP hitting may not be a repeatable skill, I see no reason that hitting when leading off an inning should be a repeatable deficiency.   

But mostly, we just need to add better hitters, either by acquisition or by bringing up guys who are better hitters than the ones they’re replacing.   Our younger hitters who are in the majors need to keep improving.  And, we need to give fewer at bats to players who don’t get on base much.  

 

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Steve Melewski wrote an article yesterday about how the O’s success this year with runners in scoring position would be hard to replicate.  In short, the O’s overall slash line was .255/.321/.421, but with RISP it was .287/.356/.481.   A typical team hit about  16 points higher in RISP situations than it does otherwise, but the O’s were +95.   That resulted in the O’s scoring about 50 runs more than a team with their overall stats would be expected to have.   And, conventional wisdom is that extraordinary success in RISP hitting is not the product of a repeatable skill, but more or less just random variation from one year to another.   

So, what if anything should the team be doing to combat an expected regression in RISP hitting, and a consequential reduction in run production?  How can the O’s compensate for slippage in this respect?

I think improving our OBP, especially when leading off an inning, will be a key.  The O’s were 7th in the AL in OBP at .321, but 11th in OBP leading off an inning, at .305.   We were particularly bad leading off the game, at .272, 13th in the AL.  Just like RISP hitting may not be a repeatable skill, I see no reason that hitting when leading off an inning should be a repeatable deficiency.   

But mostly, we just need to add better hitters, either by acquisition or by bringing up guys who are better hitters than the ones they’re replacing.   Our younger hitters who are in the majors need to keep improving.  And, we need to give fewer at bats to players who don’t get on base much.  

 

Your final paragraph sound very doable.

[Since1984]

Dare I say re-sign Flaherty LOL.

Without researching, I believe the success relates to platoons, pinch hitting, and several hot streaks during the season (Mateo in April, O’Hearn’s call-up, Hick’s filling in for Mullins injury, Hays hot streak in the first half, Gunnar’s second half, and Mouncastle’s streaks)

Cedric somehow beat his RBI record in just 111 games. The potential to overcome the RISP surplus will be difficult, without timely surprises throughout 2024.

[Spy Fox]

This is one of the reasons why, while the team's talent will continue to increase, we potentially just saw the best W-L record this core will produce.

[Aristotelian]

Maybe we will hit better in non-RISP situations.

[forphase1]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

But mostly, we just need to add better hitters, either by acquisition or by bringing up guys who are better hitters than the ones they’re replacing.   Our younger hitters who are in the majors need to keep improving.  And, we need to give fewer at bats to players who don’t get on base much.  

Pretty much this.  For much of the year we had some real holes in the lineup.  If we can replace the 318 at bats that Mateo got, the 360 at bats that Urias got, the 412 at bats that Adam Frazier got with someone who can hit better, our overall runs could potentially not drop much, even if the RISP comes back down to earth.  There are other examples too, be it 2nd half Hays or Mullins where just an average hitter (.720ish OPS) would help, versus the Hays .667 OPS in the 2nd half.  I mean I know all guys are going to have hot and cold streaks, but seems like ours last a LONG time now and then.  

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

This is one of the reasons why, while the team's talent will continue to increase, we potentially just saw the best W-L record this core will produce.

Its possible, though I think the eventual peak teams closer to genuine 100-win teams will give us one or two better than 2023's impostor 100 win teams.     Marginal Wins 88-100 probably don't feel very valuable in some front offices this minute with NL6 repeating as their league champion.

[dystopia]

Get more talent. 

[ShoelesJoe]

Quote

we need to give fewer at bats to players who don’t get on base much.  

Mateo and Frazier combined for 700+ ABs, with a .290-ish OBP between them. I'm assuming both are history and most of those at bats will go to Jackson Holliday in 2024. And while I don't expect him to yet replicate the .440 OBP he put up in the minors I wouldn't be surprised if he got on base at a .350 clip in his rookie season. We should also see significant contributions from Cowser and Mayo, who had good OBP at Norfolk. Those three additions, plus the subtraction of Frazier and Mateo, will likely mean more runners on base and more runners in scoring position. Under those circumstances even a slight drop in our 2024 RISP shouldn't hurt too much. 

[btownoriole]

I’ve thought about this too, along with the fact that they outperformed their Pythagorean by so much and they were pretty healthy.  I think the front office is banking on internal improvements in other areas - I think there’s a lot of unrealized upside next year with Holliday, Gunnar, Mullins, and perhaps even Adley.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Mateo and Frazier combined for 700+ ABs, with a .290-ish OBP between them. I'm assuming both are history and most of those at bats will go to Jackson Holliday in 2024. And while I don't expect him to yet replicate the .440 OBP he put up in the minors I wouldn't be surprised if he got on base at a .350 clip in his rookie year.

I’m not so sure that Mateo won’t be on this team. I don’t know how many at bats Holliday will get, and in any event I’m not expecting a .350 OBP from him in his rookie season.  Maybe he’ll do that, but I’m not going to count on it.  Gunnar had a .452 at Bowie and .390 at Norfolk (Holliday was .421/.396 with fewer reps at both stops), but only .325 in the majors this year.

[maybenxtyr]

It will be hard to replicate a skill that's not really repeatable. Obviously filling holes with better overall players is the key. Hopefully some of the improvements come with a little bit more power than what the team had last year. Hitting a HR with a runner on first is just as good as a single with runners on 2nd and 3rd.

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Pretty much this.  For much of the year we had some real holes in the lineup.  If we can replace the 318 at bats that Mateo got, the 360 at bats that Urias got, the 412 at bats that Adam Frazier got with someone who can hit better, our overall runs could potentially not drop much, even if the RISP comes back down to earth.  There are other examples too, be it 2nd half Hays or Mullins where just an average hitter (.720ish OPS) would help, versus the Hays .667 OPS in the 2nd half.  I mean I know all guys are going to have hot and cold streaks, but seems like ours last a LONG time now and then.  

I agree that Mateo (67 wRC+) needs to be replaced, but I doubt you’ll get much better production than what Urias (99 wRC+) and Frazier (93 wRC+) provided. The team needs an elite hitter. While everyone was pretty good this year, nobody OPSd over .820. Maybe Henderson or Adley can be that guy, but I think that’s what is missing. 

[Sports Guy]

Big reason why you need real improvements on this team and stop saying, but they won 101 games.

The amount of games they won in 2023 is irrelevant to how they do in 2024.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I agree that Mateo (67 wRC+) needs to be replaced, but I doubt you’ll get much better production than what Urias (99 wRC+) and Frazier (93 wRC+) provided. The team needs an elite hitter. While everyone was pretty good this year, nobody OPSd over .820. Maybe Henderson or Adley can be that guy, but I think that’s what is missing. 

I think either Gunnar or Adley could be an .850+ guy.  Frankly, I’d expected Adley to be an .850+ guy last year, as he was in the second half of 2022.  And Gunnar is adding to his game all the time.