Will Matusz be an ACE?

[NoVaO]

Matusz has to show durability and pitchability as a pro, but he has a chance to satisfy all of the above.

w/r/t Lier's quote you have above, I would strongly disagree with Arrieta having the best stuff out of the big-3. I'd rank ceilings Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta and projection as Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta.

I agree with Law's take on Arrieta -- mid-rotation sort of arm.

That sums it up for me.

[Fairfax Bird]

Yes, Matusz will. Think Cole Hamels.

[bigbird]

I'm going on record as saying that Arrieta will end up being a better major league pitcher than either Matusz or Tillman.

[Sports Guy]

How are you defining ace? Ace of our staff or a true ace?

To me, there are probably no more than 12 true aces in all of baseball.

Part of being an ace and a part I think is greatly overlooked is the pitchers ability to stay healthy and be durable.

So, Matusz has to do that along with being a great pitcher.

I would say Matusz is the most likely to reach his ceiling out of the big 3 and I would say his ceiling is a #1 starter but probably not one of the top 10 pitchers in the game.

[hoosiers]

I like Matusz, but most of what I read says he's likely to be a 2 - which is fine with me - that would probably put him among the top 30-35 pitchers in the game. Perhaps he elevates his game and becomes a truly elite pitcher, we'll see.

I really could care less about who is best between Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman. Unless one goes down with an injury, it's likely all will pitch at AA or above at some point this year and at least one will get some starts in the majors.

It will be pretty rare to have three highly rated pitchers in one organization all in the upper minors - that would be very exciting. Imagine if we take another elite college pitcher in this year's draft ..... conceivably, we could have four of the top 25 pitching prospects in the game - plus Erbe - entering 2010.

[mikezpen]

Aren't we being just a little premature, here??

[slappy12]

I'm going on record as saying that Arrieta will end up being a better major league pitcher than either Matusz or Tillman.

That's no surprise coming from you!!

[bigbird]

That's no surprise coming from you!!

Why?????????????????

[Frobby]

I'm going on record as saying that Arrieta will end up being a better major league pitcher than either Matusz or Tillman.

That's no surprise coming from you!!

Why?????????????????

Well, you have reported several times that, according to your source, many in the organization thought that Arrieta could make the club out of spring training. So, that suggests that the folks you are in contact with are very high on Arrieta.

Is there another basis for your prediction? I have to say, I'm very high on the guy also, but that's mainly because I was so impressed with how he marched into the Arizona Fall League and just dominated in his first taste against professional competition. I just think that shows the kind of competitor Arrieta is, and that's not always something you can judge with a radar gun or by knowing how many plus pitches a guy has.

[Moose Milligan]

Not gonna lie, the reports about Matsuz having a straight fastball bother me.

[Tony-OH]

Not gonna lie, the reports about Matsuz having a straight fastball bother me.

I have never heard of a reliable source that has said anything about Matusz having a straight fastball . I talked to a major league scout from a different organization who saw Matusz in the AFL and he never said anything about a straight fastball. In fact, he said the guy was major league ready and was the second best pitcher the Orioles have behind Guthrie right now.

You also don't put up the kind of numbers that Matusz put up in college with a straight fastball. Even college hitters can hit a straight fastball, especially one that doesn't have extreme velocity and the one thing Matusz doesn't have is the overpowering fastball velocity-wise.

Lastly, the one things that I've found from Joe Jordan's draft picks is that most of them have pretty good movement on their fastballs. I highly doubt Jordan would have taken Matusz or that Matusz would have been rated by just about every publication as the top pitching prospect if he had a straight fastball.

I'm not bashing Law because respect him as a scout, but I'm not sure where he got that straight fastball. Saying that, I haven't seen him pitch live so until I do, I'll just say the evidence suggests Matusz does not have a straight fastball. It may not have extreme movement, but it's can't be a Brad Pennington straight fastball.

[TCAlumni9700]

I'm going on record as saying that Arrieta will end up being a better major league pitcher than either Matusz or Tillman.

I second that notion.

[jdouble777]

I'm going on record as saying that Arrieta will end up being a better major league pitcher than either Matusz or Tillman.

Big bird, wow, on the record. This has been recorded in the Hall of All Things To Never Be Forgotten and you will be reminded of this decision.

[jdouble777]

I have never heard of a reliable source that has said anything about Matusz having a straight fastball . I talked to a major league scout from a different organization who saw Matusz in the AFL and he never said anything about a straight fastball. In fact, he said the guy was major league ready and was the second best pitcher the Orioles have behind Guthrie right now.

You also don't put up the kind of numbers that Matusz put up in college with a straight fastball. Even college hitters can hit a straight fastball, especially one that doesn't have extreme velocity and the one thing Matusz doesn't have is the overpowering fastball velocity-wise.

Lastly, the one things that I've found from Joe Jordan's draft picks is that most of them have pretty good movement on their fastballs. I highly doubt Jordan would have taken Matusz or that Matusz would have been rated by just about every publication as the top pitching prospect if he had a straight fastball.

I'm not bashing Law because respect him as a scout, but I'm not sure where he got that straight fastball. Saying that, I haven't seen him pitch live so until I do, I'll just say the evidence suggests Matusz does not have a straight fastball. It may not have extreme movement, but it's can't be a Brad Pennington straight fastball.

This does not help a lot but worth watching:

http://www.pitchingclips.com/players/brian_matusz.htm

This one is a lot better, what I think we are both looking for:

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/college-draft-brian-matusz/

[Orioles Magic]

I'm going on record as saying that Arrieta will end up being a better major league pitcher than either Matusz or Tillman.

So are you predicting that Arrieta will be better than most project or that Matusz and Tillman both develop below their ceilings to the point where Arrieta ends up developing into the better pitcher?

For the record I like Arrieta too. Of our top 3 pitching prospects, I am most excited about him and Matusz. Arrieta just has a look about him, he looks like a gamer. Matusz has the most rounded arsenal of pitches of the three and I think he will develop quickly. Tillman seems to have a lot of raw talent but I am not sure if he will be able to put it all together. I think the O's should take their time with him. Rushing this kid too soon will not be good in my opinion.

Time will tell.