Will Matusz be an ACE?

[TJ Wrangler]

I've posted this before, but here is my general definition of a #1:

Matusz has to show durability and pitchability as a pro, but he has a chance to satisfy all of the above.

w/r/t Lier's quote you have above, I would strongly disagree with Arrieta having the best stuff out of the big-3. I'd rank ceilings Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta and projection as Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta.

I agree with Law's take on Arrieta -- mid-rotation sort of arm.

I guess you can make that case. Maybe I should have said raw stuff, as his velocity is the best of the 3 and his pitches just seem difficult to hit. He does a really good job missing bats, but I agree that he is probably the worst of the big 3 in terms of potential, but I think he has a lesser chance of breaking down than Tillman does.

[Stotle]

I guess you can make that case. Maybe I should have said raw stuff, as his velocity is the best of the 3 and his pitches just seem difficult to hit. He does a really good job missing bats, but I agree that he is probably the worst of the big 3 in terms of potential, but I think he has a lesser chance of breaking down than Tillman does.

Well, part of the reason his pitches were so difficult for Carolina Leaguers to hit is Carolina Leaguers swung at bad pitches. I love Arrieta's velocity and he gets good bite on his slider, but his curveball and changeup are inconsistent and his command with all three of his secondary pitches comes and goes. I like the upside but would like to see more command, particularly in the zone, and more consistency with a change-of-pace pitch (CB/CH).

I'll defer to you with regards to likelihood of injury -- I don't really feel strongly about any of the big 3 with regards to potential injury.

[TJ Wrangler]

Well, part of the reason his pitches were so difficult for Carolina Leaguers to hit is Carolina Leaguers swung at bad pitches. I love Arrieta's velocity and he gets good bite on his slider, but his curveball and changeup are inconsistent and his command with all three of his secondary pitches comes and goes. I like the upside but would like to see more command, particularly in the zone, and more consistency with a change-of-pace pitch (CB/CH).

I'll defer to you with regards to likelihood of injury -- I don't really feel strongly about any of the big 3 with regards to potential injury.

Thanks, but you got me on projection of stuff. I should have said best velocity of the 3, because his secondary pitches are lagging behind.

[Stotle]

Thanks, but you got me on projection of stuff. I should have said best velocity of the 3, because his secondary pitches are lagging behind.

I agree with best velocity, certainly.

[TJ Wrangler]

I agree with best velocity, certainly.

Based off of what you have, do you think there is a chance that his secondary stuff could improve, and if he does develop command of all of his pitches, do you think he could be better than Matusz or Tillman?

[Stotle]

Based off of what you have, do you think there is a chance that his secondary stuff could improve, and if he does develop command of all of his pitches, do you think he could be better than Matusz or Tillman?

I think it's in the realm of possibility that Arrieta could be better than Tillman/Matusz -- his CB/CH/SL could all project to plus-pitches because he flashes good arm speed with his CH and he gets good spin on both his breaking balls.

He's so far behind Matusz right now, though, that I have a hard time seeing him bridging the gap on 2-3 secondary pitches. More likely than not, I think his SL stays a plus/fringe-plus-plus offering and his FB fringe-plus-plus/plus-plus. If he can get one of his CB/CH to a notch above-average, he can be very effective even without great command.

I think he's ahead of Tillman developmentally, but he's also three years older. If I had to place a bet I'd say Tillman will develop further over the next three years than Arrieta at this moment in time.

[TJ Wrangler]

I think it's in the realm of possibility that Arrieta could be better than Tillman/Matusz -- his CB/CH/SL could all project to plus-pitches because he flashes good arm speed with his CH and he gets good spin on both his breaking balls.

He's so far behind Matusz right now, though, that I have a hard time seeing him bridging the gap on 2-3 secondary pitches. More likely than not, I think his SL stays a plus/fringe-plus-plus offering and his FB fringe-plus-plus/plus-plus. If he can get one of his CB/CH to a notch above-average, he can be very effective even without great command.

I think he's ahead of Tillman developmentally, but he's also three years older. If I had to place a bet I'd say Tillman will develop further over the next three years than Arrieta at this moment in time.

Interesting stuff. So your best case scenario with Arrieta is that he has a plus-plus fastball, fringe plus plus slider, and an average curve/change with average command. If he were to reach that ceiling, that would make him a 2/3 starter, correct?

[Stotle]

Interesting stuff. So your best case scenario with Arrieta is that he has a plus-plus fastball, fringe plus plus slider, and an average curve/change with average command. If he were to reach that ceiling, that would make him a 2/3 starter, correct?

Well, best case would be (current state in parantheticals)

FB - plus-plus (fringe-plus-plus)

SL - plus-plus (plus)

CB - plus (average)

CH - plus (fringe-average)

Command - tick above-average (fringe-average)

He has that potetial in his pitches, but a fair amount would have to go right with regards to his secondary stuff to hit his ceiling on everything. I think he projects as a good #3 down the line:

FB - plus-plus

SL - fringe-plus-plus

CB - average

CH - average

Command - average

[TJ Wrangler]

Well, best case would be (current state in parantheticals)

FB - plus-plus (fringe-plus-plus)

SL - plus-plus (plus)

CB - plus (average)

CH - plus (fringe-average)

Command - tick above-average (fringe-average)

He has that potetial in his pitches, but a fair amount would have to go right with regards to his secondary stuff to hit his ceiling on everything. I think he projects as a good #3 down the line:

FB - plus-plus

SL - fringe-plus-plus

CB - average

CH - average

Command - average

That projection seems solid and very likely.

I really like the idea of his best case scenario though. That looks like a good #2 starter to me.

[Stotle]

That projection seems solid and very likely.

I really like the idea of his best case scenario though. That looks like a good #2 starter to me.

I think the best case scenario could make him a legit #1 provided he could maintain late into games. That said, I think it's unlikely he hits that ceiling, though maybe he ends-up refining his pitches throughout his career and putting everything together 4-6 years into his ML career. Eh, it's all a long ways away and tough to project with any conviction/certainty.

[KAZ97]

With Arrietta being sent down today to prepare for the season in AAA, thought it would be interesting to re-read thoughts on the "big 3" from about this time last year.

Seems like Stotle and Lier had Matusz pegged before even throwing a pitch. No mention of Brad Bergensen.

Here are some interesting quotes ...

I'm going on record as saying that Arrieta will end up being a better major league pitcher than either Matusz or Tillman.

Big bird, wow, on the record. This has been recorded in the Hall of All Things To Never Be Forgotten and you will be reminded of this decision.

w/r/t Lier's quote you have above, I would strongly disagree with Arrieta having the best stuff out of the big-3. I'd rank ceilings Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta and projection as Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta.

I agree with Law's take on Arrieta -- mid-rotation sort of arm.

I think it's in the realm of possibility that Arrieta could be better than Tillman/Matusz -- his CB/CH/SL could all project to plus-pitches because he flashes good arm speed with his CH and he gets good spin on both his breaking balls.

He's so far behind Matusz right now, though, that I have a hard time seeing him bridging the gap on 2-3 secondary pitches. More likely than not, I think his SL stays a plus/fringe-plus-plus offering and his FB fringe-plus-plus/plus-plus. If he can get one of his CB/CH to a notch above-average, he can be very effective even without great command.

I think he's ahead of Tillman developmentally, but he's also three years older. If I had to place a bet I'd say Tillman will develop further over the next three years than Arrieta at this moment in time.

And with respect to drafting another pitcher in the 2009 draft ...

There is no way this team will pass on Grant Green if he falls to us.

[QBsILLEST1]

Hmm, interesting looking back at some these things. At this time last season, these guys were all much closer together, but after a season of development It seems Matusz has taken off and is now mentioned by many as the favorite to win the ROY this year. Tillman's stock is about the same mosty due to mixed results. He made big time strides last season, especially with the changeup which now looks like another future plus pitch for him, but that is slightly negated with his exploited problem with command. And the command has always not been a strength of his, so its not like he is stagnating developmentally or anything, its that no one knew to what degree his subpar command would hinder his ML production. Now, we know it is pretty detrimental for him to improve his command. But, Jake Arrieta's stock has dropped a bit. He was dominant in AA, but in AAA, he got hit a little bit and he didn't progress much if at all since being drafted. IMO he is somewhat stagnating. Maybe its just ST and he is just getting loose, and its coincidental that it came after his only bad professional stint, but also, it may not be coincidental that every other top pitching prospect in the system has either moved passed him or at the very least gained a lot of ground on him....

[Frobby]

Hmm, interesting looking back at some these things. At this time last season, these guys were all much closer together, but after a season of development It seems Matusz has taken off and is now mentioned by many as the favorite to win the ROY this year. Tillman's stock is about the same mosty due to mixed results. He made big time strides last season, especially with the changeup which now looks like another future plus pitch for him, but that is slightly negated with his exploited problem with command. And the command has always not been a strength of his, so its not like he is stagnating developmentally or anything, its that no one knew to what degree his subpar command would hinder his ML production. Now, we know it is pretty detrimental for him to improve his command. But, Jake Arrieta's stock has dropped a bit. He was dominant in AA, but in AAA, he got hit a little bit and he didn't progress much if at all since being drafted. IMO he is somewhat stagnating. Maybe its just ST and he is just getting loose, and its coincidental that it came after his only bad professional stint, but also, it may not be coincidental that every other top pitching prospect in the system has either moved passed him or at the very least gained a lot of ground on him....

I was encouraged by what Trembley said about Arrieta yesterday. I still think he'll be a solid major league starter or an excellent relief pitcher. But, he needs to go down to Norfolk and show he's improved on those things that limited his success there last year.

[QBsILLEST1]

I was encouraged by what Trembley said about Arrieta yesterday. I still think he'll be a solid major league starter or an excellent relief pitcher. But, he needs to go down to Norfolk and show he's improved on those things that limited his success there last year.

What did trembley say about Arrieta? I think he still can become a good mid rotation guy, but I am definitely having some big time doubts. He has things he needs to improve upon to be successful, and they are the same things he has needed to improve since we drafted him, he just like I said above almost seems to be stagnating...

[Frobby]

What did trembley say about Arrieta?

Here it is:

"Great worker, special talent, very good arm, but we've run out of innings for him here and he needs to go pitch in the minor leagues. Great upside. Very good work ethic. He knows how to compete. I just told him in a nutshell that he just needs experience. That's all he needs."

http://masnsports.com/2010/03/roberts-will-play-tomorrow.html