Santander Speculation

[24fps]

2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I loved the short bio of the author of the article. Any idea what a "seasoned alumnus" is? 

4-5 nights a week in the French Quarter will get you plenty seasoned.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, 24fps said:

4-5 nights a week in the French Quarter will get you plenty seasoned.

Or Une Nuit A Paris.

 

[24fps]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The safe play here is to actually let Santander play out his final year and see if a QO makes sense. Meaning, the value that he provides to this team while in a winning window is worth more than if we weren’t in our window. 

This is an example of getting too cute and missing the playoffs entirely. The time to get aggressive is at next year’s trade deadline. Stay the ship. Actually spend at the deadline. That’s where Texas and Arizona won at. 

A QO would be in the neighborhood of $20 million or roughly 20% of the O's payroll - assuming of course that a hefty bump up in spending has already taken place, which is not at all guaranteed.  I'm partial to keeping Santander for 2024 if the trade offers aren't there, but I don't see him having such a good season that offering a QO would be a reasonable gamble.  Strategizing around qualifying offers is the working definition of "too cute".

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, 24fps said:

A QO would be in the neighborhood of $20 million or roughly 20% of the O's payroll - assuming of course that a hefty bump up in spending has already taken place, which is not at all guaranteed.  I'm partial to keeping Santander for 2024 if the trade offers aren't there, but I don't see him having such a good season that offering a QO would be a reasonable gamble.  Strategizing around qualifying offers is the working definition of "too cute".

The % of the O's payroll the QO comes to is irrelevant.

What matter is if Santander would accept one or not.

If he has another season like his last two, he would certainly reject the qualifying offer and be looking at like a 4/80 deal on the open market.

I don't know about "strategizing around" QOs, but not taking them into account in the calculus is not doing a thorough accounting.  

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The % of the O's payroll the QO comes to is irrelevant.

What matter is if Santander would accept one or not.

If he has another season like his last two, he would certainly reject the qualifying offer and be looking at like a 4/80 deal on the open market.

I don't know about "strategizing around" QOs, but not taking them into account in the calculus is not doing a thorough accounting.  

He had a 3 rWAR (2.6 fWAR) last year. I don't think back to back 3-ish WAR seasons is enough to merit 4/80 entering an age 30 season.

A similar comp would be Andrew Benintendi, who signed for 5/75M after 2022 coming off of 2.6 and 3.2 rWAR seasons in 2021-22, but he was 21 months younger than Santander will be entering free agency (Benintendi was 28 and 3 months in October 2022 vs. Santander turning 30 in October 2024).

[24fps]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The % of the O's payroll the QO comes to is irrelevant.

What matter is if Santander would accept one or not.

If he has another season like his last two, he would certainly reject the qualifying offer and be looking at like a 4/80 deal on the open market.

I don't know about "strategizing around" QOs, but not taking them into account in the calculus is not doing a thorough accounting.  

Take them into account all you want, but even bad gamblers pause before risking more than they can afford to lose.  That includes those who are "certain" and consider $20 million "irrelevant". 

[Pickles]

Just now, 24fps said:

Take them into account all you want, but even bad gamblers pause before risking more than they can afford to lose.  That includes those who are "certain" and consider $20 million "irrelevant". 

Well, if he were to have a bad/mediocre year in 2024 which made him likely to accept an offer you don't want to pay you simply don't extend the QO.

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, if he were to have a bad/mediocre year in 2024 which made him likely to accept an offer you don't want to pay you simply don't extend the QO.

And he walks and the team gets nothing.  So there is still some degree of risk.

[Pickles]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

And he walks and the team gets nothing.  So there is still some degree of risk.

Absolutely.  Right now they're looking at the possibility of a draft pick.  It's all part of the equation.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I loved the short bio of the author of the article. Any idea what a "seasoned alumnus" is? 

Nope

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Absolutely.  Right now they're looking at the possibility of a draft pick.  It's all part of the equation.

I'm in camp:

1. Get a player (s)
2. Open up a roster spot
3. Free up payroll for other needs

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Nope

I think it means he's salty about his choice of degree.

[Since1984]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Despite the headline, the article is just referring to another speculative article with no inside sources. So the O's have only been "linked" to Bieber in the sense that a random writer thinks he might be a good fit. 

I like the idea, outside of Bieber’s elbow soreness and drop in velocity.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd much rather add to the team during the off-season and not the deadline.

I agree.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

He had a 3 rWAR (2.6 fWAR) last year. I don't think back to back 3-ish WAR seasons is enough to merit 4/80 entering an age 30 season.

A similar comp would be Andrew Benintendi, who signed for 5/75M after 2022 coming off of 2.6 and 3.2 rWAR seasons in 2021-22, but he was 21 months younger than Santander will be entering free agency (Benintendi was 28 and 3 months in October 2022 vs. Santander turning 30 in October 2024).

We can quibble over what exactly he'd get, but there is virtually no doubt in my mind that if he repeats his last two seasons, he would definitely reject a QO in favor of a longer term deal.