Santander Speculation

[DirtyBird]

On 10/26/2023 at 10:02 AM, wildcard said:

If Texas is the team the O's have to beat next year to get to the World Series I can't see how they do it by trading their best power hitter.    They need to add and/or development more offense not trade it away.

A 12M salary appears to be in line with their salary structure considering that Gibson made 10M last year.   

The fact that Santander is our best power hitter is a major part of our problem.

[Pickles]

32 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

The fact that Santander is our best power hitter is a major part of our problem.

We won 101 games with one of the youngest rosters in the majors, and currently have the top ranked farm system in all of baseball.

Who says we have a problem?

[OriolesMagic83]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

We won 101 games with one of the youngest rosters in the majors, and currently have the top ranked farm system in all of baseball.

Who says we have a problem?

People who say a 101 win season was a failure because the O's lost on the first round of the playoffs.

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

People who say a 101 win season was a failure because the O's lost on the first round of the playoffs.

Well those people are pretty stupid. I don't give much truck to stupid people.

[24fps]

48 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

The fact that Santander is our best power hitter is a major part of our problem.

Santander, Henderson, Rutschman, O'Hearn and Hicks are all within .017 points of each other in OPS with Santander being lowest.  That said, there's an overall truthiness to your statement that I hope Elias takes to heart.

[DirtyBird]

3 hours ago, Pickles said:

We won 101 games with one of the youngest rosters in the majors, and currently have the top ranked farm system in all of baseball.

Who says we have a problem?

I say we have a problem. We need a 40 HR, .900 OPS, intimidating bat in the middle of the lineup - not just a bunch of streaky low .800’s OPS guys.

[FlipTheBird]

2 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

I say we have a problem. We need a 40 HR, .900 OPS, intimidating bat in the middle of the lineup - not just a bunch of streaky low .800’s OPS guys.

There were 10 guys in the league that posted a .900 OPS or better in 2023. Only four of them hit 40 homers. One of those guys was Marcell Ozuna, who basically rose from the grave after looking pretty much done. The other three were Ohtani, Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna.

So if you’re saying it’s sign Ohtani or the O’s are doomed, we’re in tough shape.

Further, the Braves made it just as far as the O’s despite having three of the four guys that meet your standards.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, wildcard said:

If Hays does not hit in the 2nd half and Santander can't even hit for a 700 OPS as a DH, what makes you think either player gets that many at bats in 2024?   Especially with Cowser and Kjerstad they’re to hit better in those spots.

I don’t think it’s a given that Hays will always have a bad second half just because he did it two years in a row.  The second half was his stronger half in 2021.   

I don’t think it’s a given that Santander will hit under .700 OPS as a DH.

I certainly don’t think it’s a given that Mullins will miss 46 games next year, after missing a total of 9 games in 2021-22 combined.   

Now, any of those things could happen, I just don’t think you can confidently predict them.   

Does that mean I don’t think you could have both Cowser and Kjerstad on the roster and find at bats for them?   Not necessarily.  You’ve got roughly 2700 PA between the 3 OF spots and DH.  Even if you knock that down to 2300 to allow Adley and others some DH time, that’s still 460 PA per outfielder for the five.   It’s manageable if that’s the way the O’s choose to play it.  


 

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think it’s a given that Hays will always have a bad second half just because he did it two years in a row.  The second half was his stronger half in 2021.   

I don’t think it’s a given that Santander will hit under .700 OPS as a DH.

I certainly don’t think it’s a given that Mullins will miss 46 games next year, after missing a total of 9 games in 2021-22 combined.   

Now, any of those things could happen, I just don’t think you can confidently predict them.   

Does that mean I don’t think you could have both Cowser and Kjerstad on the roster and find at bats for them?   Not necessarily.  You’ve got roughly 2700 PA between the 3 OF spots and DH.  Even if you knock that down to 2300 to allow Adley and others some DH time, that’s still 460 PA per outfielder for the five.   It’s manageable if that’s the way the O’s choose to play it.  


 

My guess is they’d give 600 to 4 guys and 300 ish to a backup CF.

[Sports Guy]

The bottom line is that this team needs to see what the young kids can do. They are in a tough spot, no doubt but you can’t have all these shiney toys and then never use them.

These players are all Uber talented..whether or not that talent translates on the ML field is tbd but whether people want to admit it or not, the players we have in AAA are just much more talented than many of the guys “blocking them” in the majors.

I think we need to rip off the bandaid and just get them up quickly in 2024.  Build up the pitching staff and allow pitching and defense to limit runs early while you let the young kids get their feet wet offensively.  
 

 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The bottom line is that this team needs to see what the young kids can do. They are in a tough spot, no doubt but you can’t have all these shiney toys and then never use them.

These players are all Uber talented..whether or not that talent translates on the ML field is tbd but whether people want to admit it or not, the players we have in AAA are just much more talented than many of the guys “blocking them” in the majors.

I think we need to rip off the bandaid and just get them up quickly in 2024.  Build up the pitching staff and allow pitching and defense to limit runs early while you let the young kids get their feet wet offensively.  
 

 

Cowser and Kjerstad are likely a downgrade defensively  from Hays and Santander.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Cowser and Kjerstad are likely a downgrade defensively  from Hays and Santander.

I disagree but would agree that we have to wait and see.

I also don’t think Kjerstad will play OF everyday.

That said, I would rather keep Hays for 2024 although I don’t really care if they trade him. He’s not a huge loss.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think it’s a given that Hays will always have a bad second half just because he did it two years in a row.  The second half was his stronger half in 2021.   

I don’t think it’s a given that Santander will hit under .700 OPS as a DH.

I certainly don’t think it’s a given that Mullins will miss 46 games next year, after missing a total of 9 games in 2021-22 combined.   

Now, any of those things could happen, I just don’t think you can confidently predict them.   

Does that mean I don’t think you could have both Cowser and Kjerstad on the roster and find at bats for them?   Not necessarily.  You’ve got roughly 2700 PA between the 3 OF spots and DH.  Even if you knock that down to 2300 to allow Adley and others some DH time, that’s still 460 PA per outfielder for the five.   It’s manageable if that’s the way the O’s choose to play it.  


 

If something has happened in both of the last two years it is something that should be planned for in the up coming season.  I agree it might happen or not but if you are a GM I think it goes into your planning.

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If something has happened in both of the last two years it is something that should be planned for in the up coming season.  I agree it might happen or not but if you are a GM I think it goes into your planning.

I disagree that something that’s happened two years in a row specifically affects your planning.   I think you plan from general principles.  And in general principles, there are always getting injured, players going hot and cold, players who struggle in one circumstance or another.   So you build your team to be resilient against whatever of those issues may arise, rather than overreacting to something specific that came up last year, or even two years in a row.   You don’t take two points and assume you can draw a line between them and extend that line out to infinity.    That’s not how things work in the real world.   

[forphase1]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I disagree that something that’s happened two years in a row specifically affects your planning.   I think you plan from general principles.  And in general principles, there are always getting injured, players going hot and cold, players who struggle in one circumstance or another.   So you build your team to be resilient against whatever of those issues may arise, rather than overreacting to something specific that came up last year, or even two years in a row.   You don’t take two points and assume you can draw a line between them and extend that line out to infinity.    That’s not how things work in the real world.   

True,  but only to a point.   Some players are more injury prone than others, for whatever reason (style of play,  prior injuries,  'weaker' body, etc).  Some are also more prone to long cold streaks than others who are more consistent.  No,  a 2 year trend is not a straight line that shows what will happen in year 3, but I'm willing to bet that any good probability/risk assessment chart would have a significantly higher risk/ injury probability for the player who had been injured 2 years in a row versus a player who has been healthy for those 2 years.  That should be taken into account when planning the 3rd year.