Which O's AAA players deserve to be on the open day roster?

[wildcard]

Who earned the promotion to the majors:

Ready

Westburg - 36 homers, 128 RBI in 158 games at AAA and a 939 OPS at AAA in 2023.   He has nothing left to prove at AAA.   Didn't do that well in the majors with a 715 OPS but he played well at 2B defensively.  His development should continue at the major league level.

Cowser -  323 AB, 72 R, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 300/417/520/937 in 2023 deserves a promotion to the majors.  His poor showing in 61 at bats in the majors should not hold him back.  He has nothing more to prove at AAA.

Ortiz - 453 AB, 88 R, 13 HR, 72 RBI,  327/383/521/904 over two seasons at AAA.  Plus Outstanding defensive capabilities.   He deserves a promotion.

Hall -  4.22 ERA at AAA did not show he is ready.  But his numbers late in the season as a reliever in the majors earns him a spot in the O's pen.  His 3.26 ERA,  19.1 IP,  23 SO, 1.19 WHIP show he is ready for a promotion.

Almost Ready

Kjerstad -  295 AB, 57 R, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 298/371/498/869 at AAA.   Kjerstad numbers at AAA read more like an on base guy than a middle of the order masher.   He is not far away but has not quite earned his way as the middle of the order bat the O's are looking for him to be.

Holliday - 75 AB, 18 R, 2 HR, 16 RBI,  267/396/400/796 at AAA.   He probably needs at few at bats to master AAA.  He needs to play some 2B.

Mayo -  Amazing power stats at AAA. 12 homers, 55 RBI, 267/393/512/905 in 217 AB.   But his defensive numbers need improvement.  Mayo's 925 at 3B and  979 at 1B fielding percentages would put him at the bottom of the league in the majors.   He needs more time to develop defensively at AAA.

McDermott - 3-2, 2.49 ERA, 10 G, 8 S,   50.2 IP, 24 W, 64 SO,  1.01 WHIP.     On the right track but needs a few more games to be ready for the majors.

Should be traded.  Not enough room for them.

Stowers -  663 AB, 106 R, 39 HR, 138 RBI,  258/361/507/867 in two seasons at AAA.   With Cowser and Kjerstad ahead of him he deserves to the traded. 26 years old in January its time to trade him.

Norby - 565 AB, 104 R,  21 HR, 92 RBI,  290/359/483/842 at AAA.  Offensively Norby is ready.  Defensively he is behind Westburg, Ortiz and Holliday.   He is only 23 years old and does not need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.  He is intriguing young player that probably gets traded.

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

Kjerstad is clearly ready.

Mayo and Holliday are ready too but you can make a case for them to stay down for defensive purposes for a month or 2.

I disagree  that you have to trade those 2 players but you obviously have to trade guys. It depends on value, what they bring back, etc…

[RZNJ]

Ortiz deserves a spot.  I could make a case for Kjerstad, Cowser, Norby and Mayo but earning it doesn’t mean you get one.

[oriole]

Hall, Westburg, and Kjerstad should all be on the team barring a crazy terrible spring. They’ve got the inside track.

Holliday might make it if he comes into spring tearing it up, but I fully expect him to be a late season call up. Not to mention, Ortiz deserves a shot at some regular at bats. I wouldn’t be opposed to him being the every day SS to start the year until Holliday is ready. 
 

I just don’t see where Stowers, Norby or Mayo fit on this team. They should be trade options, but if they’re not then I expect them to sit at AAA until there’s an injury that opens up a spot. 
 

McDermott is good SP depth, but I’m only penciling him anywhere like my ‘to be deduced’ numbers on a Sudoku puzzle. I don’t think it’s wise to count on him for anything just yet. 
 

Cowser is a bit of a mystery. His atrocious debut has flattened my outlook on him a little bit, but I think he can turn it around. I’ve gotta see it at AAA before saying he should be getting regular at bats.

[Jammer7]

I would hold onto Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad, all of the rest can go in the right deal. They could all three be ready with a great Winter of work, but I could see any or all of them back in Norfolk to start 2024. Mayo is soooo young, and the defense at 3B is not great. But you find a place for that bat to play. 

That said, I’m not in a hurry to move any of them. All of them could fill roles on a winning team. Depends on what else they do. 

Norby, in particular, may just be a guy that surprises down the road. Bat to ball skills matter, and maybe they find a place for him in 2B/LF. He should begin 2024 in Norfolk, and then we’ll see.

I like Westburg a lot. There is much more there in the bat. I like the intensity he brings, his work ethic. He brings “it” every day. 

Ortiz would be an ideal bench INF for me. Depends on what they do with Mateo and Urias, I guess.

Hall and McDermott look like high-leverage pen arms to me.  If they want to win a World Series, you need guys who can miss bats in the pen. 

[24fps]

Westburg:  On the team and starting at 2B.

Ortiz:  On the team and starting at SS on opening day.  Mateo not retained and Ortiz moves to Utility if/when Holliday is ready in 2024.

Cowser/Kjerstad:  On the team and splitting time in LF and DH.  Hays traded.

Hall:  Bullpen assuming he doesn't win a rotation spot which I think is unlikely.

Mayo, Holliday and McDermott in AAA to start the season.

Agree that Stowers and Norby are trade bait along with one of Cowser/Kjerstad.

[Jagwar]

It's all going to depend on who is dealt. For example, I don't think Ortiz has anything left to prove at AAA. He should be on a major league roster, either with the O's or someone else. If Urias is no longer on the roster, then Ortiz is next man up. 

Same thing with Santander. If he is dealt it opens the door for Cowser or Kjerstad. If he stays it is much more difficult for them to be on the opening day roster.  

[Aristotelian]

Question with Cowser and Kjerstad is are they better, right now, than Hays and Santander (and Hicks, for that matter). There is a good chance that neither comes close to Santander offensively or Hays defensively. So they may be ready but bringing them up could harm the team. We could trade Hays or Santander but I would want to get a good return for them. Until then, I don't see a full time spot for either player. 

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Question with Cowser and Kjerstad is are they better, right now, than Hays and Santander (and Hicks, for that matter). There is a good chance that neither comes close to Santander offensively or Hays defensively. So they may be ready but bringing them up could harm the team. We could trade Hays or Santander but I would want to get a good return for them. Until then, I don't see a full time spot for either player. 

Here is the difference. You pretty much know what you get with Hays and Santander. There is still a huge amount of uncertainty with what you get with Cowser and Kjerstad. 

[DirtyBird]

We already had this same thread with a different title. 
is this what happens the entire offseason?

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

We already had this same thread with a different title. 
is this what happens the entire offseason?

We will also propose numerous outlandish trades that never happen and get outraged when they don't sign the perfect free agent.

[Roll Tide]

12 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Question with Cowser and Kjerstad is are they better, right now, than Hays and Santander (and Hicks, for that matter). There is a good chance that neither comes close to Santander offensively or Hays defensively. So they may be ready but bringing them up could harm the team. We could trade Hays or Santander but I would want to get a good return for them. Until then, I don't see a full time spot for either player. 

It doesn’t matter if they are better. The Orioles are basically playing the current version of Moneyball.  The young players give you playing time and hopefully at least comparable production for Pennies on the dollar. 
 

Clocks are running to control and promote guys. If they don’t get the chance the rule 5 will come into play. If you wait too long their age hurts their prospect status and value. Many would argue that’s what has happened to Stowers already. 
 

Norby needs to be up or dealt! Same with most of the guys being discussed. 
 

Hays is a solid player but isn’t a ️. Santander isn’t a guy you give a big long term contract to in our model. You already need to consider extension for Bradish, Rodriquez, Henderson and possibly Adley. 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Jagwar]

9 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

We already had this same thread with a different title. 
is this what happens the entire offseason?

Pretty much. I think Wildcard has a jar with possible thread titles written on tiny strips of paper. Once the O's have played their last game he randomly selects at least 1 a week from the jar.

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It doesn’t matter if they are better. The Orioles are basically playing the current version of Moneyball.  The young players give you playing time and hopefully at least comparable production for Pennies on the dollar. 
 

Clocks are running to control and promote guys. If they don’t get the chance the rule 5 will come into play. If you wait too long their age hurts their prospect status and value. Many would argue that’s what has happened to Stowers already. 
 

Norby needs to be up or dealt! Same with most of the guys being discussed. 
 

Hays is a solid player but isn’t a ️. Santander isn’t a guy you give a big long term contract to in our model. You already need to consider extension for Bradish, Rodriquez, Henderson and possibly Adley. 

The Orioles had one of the lowest payrolls in the league. They are not exactly strapped for cash right now. Once it gets to that point maybe we start to get rid of productive players in arbitration.

It is true they may be able to replace some of Hays/Santander production at lower cost but to contend you need above average production at most positions. I think Cowser and Kjerstad are a good bet to be replacement level but they have to be better than that for us to contend. We won't know whether they are until we see them at the MLB level. I agree they need opportunities but getting rid of productive vets and pencilling them in for opening day is a big risk. As I said, I'd be OK with that if we trade Santander/Hays and get some useful pieces back, but I need to see the return. Just saying "trade Hays" is easier said than done. 

[wildcard]

While writing the OP I was surprised that Stowers  has hit 39 homer, 138 RBI,  361 OBP, 507 Slugging Pct, and a 868 OPS in 663 AAA At Bats.   That is pretty impressive.

Here is what MLBTR Mark Polishuk said in the O's chat about Stowers:

Kyle Stowers

1:22

Will the Orioles finally trade me? I dont see how I can crack the MLB outfield anymore. Am I a good 2nd piece of a trade package or do I not have much value anymore?

Mark P

1:24

Stowers has 131 career plate appearances in the majors.  Cowser has 77.  Both would have a lot of trade value, and while they might be trade chips due to the Orioles' prospect logjam, it is far too early to "give up" on either

If Stowers as an lot of trade value that is different from what I  get from the OH.

Edited October 28, 2023 by wildcard