Dylan Cease

[Roll Tide]

56 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

A guy who won a Cy Young in the last two years for 1 possible legit prospect and a throw-in (I highly doubt the White Sox would be clamoring for the likes of Stowers... but who knows?) Either way, that seems like a very low ball offer if I'm looking at things from a CHI SOX perspective. If the rumors are true that they asked for Holliday at the deadline, that would be an awfully steep fall to end up with the package that you are suggesting. At this point can Joey Ortiz even highlight a trade? He's already 25 has not Major success/track record AND I believe the entire industry is going to start adjusting the evaluation of many of our positional prospects' offensive numbers (especially at AAA) given how little of it we saw carry over to the Big club. Westburg went from leading his league with 17 homers before the end of June and hit all of TWO for us the second half of the season. Stowers didn't even look competitive at the plate in his brief stint in the Majors this year after killing it in the Minors. I think we at least have to consider that other teams will have some apprehension about offensive carry over and may not be comfortable "settling" for one or two prospects given what we have seen?

According to the trade simulator Cease for Urias, Westburg, and Stowers would be pretty close.

or 

 

Cease for Mayo straight up, would you do that deal? My problem is I’d insist on an extension if I’m trade a blue chip guy in a deal.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

According to the trade simulator Cease for Urias, Westburg, and Stowers would be pretty close.

or 

 

Cease for Mayo straight up, would you do that deal? My problem is I’d insist on an extension if I’m trade a blue chip guy in a deal.

lol at Cease for Mayo.  That’s a perfect example of why that website is complete trash.

[Bemorewins]

I would be over the moon if the CHI SOX would accept Urias, Westburg, and Stowers. I just don't see that offer having much appeal to them in a realistic scenario. I mean what would they want with Urias? I'm not sure where the appeal of Stowers is for them? But hey I hope that I am wrong!

Cease for Mayo may be closer to a more realistic exchange. However, as I mentioned in my previous post, there may be some scrutinization/apprehension of our top prospect's offensive numbers carrying over to the Bigs.

As far as the extension goes: 1) I don't see a reason to believe that our org would operate in such a way. They have literally extended... wait for it... NO ONE! 2) How many pitchers are good extension candidates given how likely injury is for most? Cease's velo is trending in the wrong direction. Maybe not as bad as Bieber's but still concerning.

[sevastras]

I wouldn’t trade Krerstad straight up for Cease.  What are people obsession with him? One amazing year and a new shiny toy? 

[RZNJ]

40 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I wouldn’t trade Krerstad straight up for Cease.  What are people obsession with him? One amazing year and a new shiny toy? 

I don’t see anyone obsessed with him like we have to get him.  The bad Cease gives you 32 starts, 200 strikeouts, and is a 2-3 WAR pitcher.   He’s also available, still relatively young, and isn’t attached to a long expensive contract.  In other words he makes sense in a lot of ways.

[waroriole]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

At some point, we are going to need to take some big swings. This ownership isn’t going to take big swings with money. Hell, we don’t even know if they will extend our own guys.

Robert is a risk, no doubt..as is any acquisition or any non acquisition always is.

But he is an elite talent that is a good age and has a great contract..and he can play a premium position at a high level.

He’s definitely not a slam dunk but there are a lot of reasons why he’s a very good risk for this org to take.

If ownership isn’t willing to extend our guys or sign legit FA then you have to let your top rated prospect class hit their peak value before trading them. If they’re willing to let payroll reach 120ish, then sure make a reasonable trade for Roberts. Since we know they won’t do that, I wouldn’t start shrinking our contention window to maximize odds over a 2-3 year range. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

If ownership isn’t willing to extend our guys or sign legit FA then you have to let your top rated prospect class hit their peak value before trading them. If they’re willing to let payroll reach 120ish, then sure make a reasonable trade for Roberts. Since we know they won’t do that, I wouldn’t start shrinking our contention window to maximize odds over a 2-3 year range. 

Your post is essentially assuming that the prospects will all develop and be good.  My guess is some of the names being thrown around here to trade will fail. 
 

Trading some prospects, even very good ones, doesn’t hurt our window even if Robert doesn’t pan out.

Edited November 5, 2023 by Sports Guy

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your post is essentially assuming that the prospects will all develop and be good.  My guess is some of the names being thrown around here to trade will fail. 
 

Trading some prospects, even very good ones, doesn’t hurt our window even if Robert doesn’t pan out.

No, they won’t all develop and be good players. But, you’re gonna get more value in trades overall if you wait and see which ones are solid major league players. Yeah maybe Kjerstad’s bat isn’t elite enough and your return for him will be less than you’d get now, but that loss could be more than offset by waiting for Cowser to show his production this year was a fluke and he really is the guy he’s been at every step of the minors. Teams with owners who completely hamstring them can’t take a lot of chances. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, waroriole said:

No, they won’t all develop and be good players. But, you’re gonna get more value in trades overall if you wait and see which ones are solid major league players. Yeah maybe Kjerstad’s bat isn’t elite enough and your return for him will be less than you’d get now, but that loss could be more than offset by waiting for Cowser to show his production this year was a fluke and he really is the guy he’s been at every step of the minors. Teams with owners who completely hamstring them can’t take a lot of chances. 

I mean maybe…I think you are just as likely to lose value hanging onto guys and leaving them in the minors and things like that. You can’t just sit around and wait on every prospect, especially when you are loaded. At some point, it causes a chain reaction throughout the system and players can’t move up.

[RZNJ]

For what it’s worth, back in 2017 at the trade deadline the Cubs traded 4 players including Cease (97 in BA top 100) and Eloy Jimenez (14) for Jose Quintana who had over 3 years of service time and a more consistent career but without the big season.

[waroriole]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean maybe…I think you are just as likely to lose value hanging onto guys and leaving them in the minors and things like that. You can’t just sit around and wait on every prospect, especially when you are loaded. At some point, it causes a chain reaction throughout the system and players can’t move up.

In an organization willing to spend enough to be middle of the pack, I’d agree. You trade from surplus to get the best players you can. You use free agency to plug any other holes in the team. And you extend the best of your prospects that are willing to extend. Unless someone besides an Angelos is making budget decisions for this team, I don’t see them spending enough to make this a viable option. 

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean maybe…I think you are just as likely to lose value hanging onto guys and leaving them in the minors and things like that. You can’t just sit around and wait on every prospect, especially when you are loaded. At some point, it causes a chain reaction throughout the system and players can’t move up.

I am not advocating this but you could return Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Norby, Holliday, and Mayo to Norfolk and there would be room for all and no one lower in the system would be blocked.  You could argue that we don’t have any top infield prospects at Bowie or Aberdeen to start the year.   The two outfielders most likely to push to AAA are Fabian and Beavers but you are probably looking at June/July if that.   
 

Norfolk potential super team

1B Cook

2B Ortiz

SS Holliday

3B Mayo

C Handley

LF Norby

CF Cowser

RF Kjerstad

DH Haskin or Stowers

Edited November 5, 2023 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

In an organization willing to spend enough to be middle of the pack, I’d agree. You trade from surplus to get the best players you can. You use free agency to plug any other holes in the team. And you extend the best of your prospects that are willing to extend. Unless someone besides an Angelos is making budget decisions for this team, I don’t see them spending enough to make this a viable option. 

Which is why Robert is such a good option because his contract is “cheap”. 

[waroriole]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which is why Robert is such a good option because his contract is “cheap”. 

I guess it depends on where you see the payroll going the next few years. Unless there’s a change in ownership I don’t see them adding any salaries that aren’t from arbitration increases. Maybe a yearly guy like Gibson/Lyles. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

I guess it depends on where you see the payroll going the next few years. Unless there’s a change in ownership I don’t see them adding any salaries that aren’t from arbitration increases. Maybe a yearly guy like Gibson/Lyles. 

Well sure but the hypothetical here is the trade occurs. You were arguing against Robert as a target.