Jump to content

Steamers 2024 ERA projection..top 25


Sports Guy

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:


GRod but no Bradish.

It's not surprising to me Grayson is projected above Bradish.  It is a little surprising to me that Bradish isn't in the top 25.

However, this is the weakness of these computer models.  They can't recognize real developmental breakthroughs as quickly as the human eye can.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Grayson too low. No Bradish. List has faults. 

A guy with a 4.35 ERA in 122 career innings is ranked 11th overall by a projection system and you still manage to sound slighted on his behalf.

It's a projection system,  I didn't think he'd be that high.  It must have liked his underlying data.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A guy with a 4.35 ERA in 122 career innings is ranked 11th overall by a projection system and you still manage to sound slighted on his behalf.

It's a projection system,  I didn't think he'd be that high.  It must have liked his underlying data.

 

Calm down. It’s mostly said in jest. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

Sophomore slumps are common even in ROYs.  But Cal proves it doesn’t always happen 

The problem with that theory wrt Henderson is that he started off 2023 cold as ice, but in the last 100 games of the season he was a stud -- .276 / .322 / .534 from June 1st on. If he'd started hot and then struggled toward the end of 2023 I can see the logic of projecting a sophomore slump. But the kid made his adjustments, and it is reasonable to assume that his 2024 production will be in line with how he finished 2023 rather than how he started it. 

Edited by ShoelesJoe
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

The problem with that theory wrt Henderson is that he started off 2023 cold as ice, but in the last 100 games of the season he was a stud -- .276 / .322 / .534 from June 1st on. If he'd started hot and then struggled toward the end of 2023 I can see the logic of projecting a sophomore slump. But the kid made his adjustments, and it is reasonable to assume that his 2024 production will be in line with how he finished 2023 rather than how he started it. 

Julio Rodriguez literally did the same exact thing.  His second year his OPS+ went from 147 to 128. It’s a continuing set of adjustments. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Posts

    • Hm, seems like perfect situation for Akin as an opener, maybe game 3 if necessary? 
    • You are such a Rebel.
    • Another possibility: If you win game 1, maybe you don't ptich Eflin in Game 2 and try to win Game 2 without using him.   I mean, worst that can happen is you lose and have Eflin for game 3 anyway.   So you won't lose the wild card series without pitching your two best. But you COULD win the wild card series without your two best, and then you would have Eflin and Burnes lined up for games 1 and 2 in Cleveland
    • I like Law a lot, but that is a beyond asinine comment about not playing every day on a playoff team. You know how many playoff teams would slot him in the lineup immediately every game? Answer: the large majority. The Yankees would take Cowser over Verdugo The Tigers might not put him in over Greene/Meadows/Carpenter, but they’d DH him over their options. Cowser would start over every outfielder for the Royals, IMHO. He’d start over Meyers and Dubon for the Astros. The Guardians would probably start him over anybody not named Kwan in the OF, tbh.  I can keep going.
    • Even more of a reason to like FG over BBref,  tbh. Thanks, didn’t realize they switched this year. My point re: FIP is that I rather prefer it over RA/9, not to say it’s perfect. RA/9 treats all runs allowed by a pitcher the same regardless of them being earned or unearned. So, a pitcher on a team with a terrible defense is going to be judged much more harshly than somebody that pitches on a top tier defense. Not to mention the bullpen taking over mid inning dilemma. The funny thing is in your example re: FIP, RA/9 would have the first pitcher but love the second. Either way, these stats, like nearly all single solitary stats, aren’t best taken alone.  For your example, let’s say Pitcher A allowed weak contact and the defenders just had poor range, poor arms, whatever, but in the second example the defenders had great range and great arms making amazing plays to prevent any damage…then what?  Anyways, give me FIP over RA/9 was my point. But if you want to truly assess a pitcher, you’re going to need a few complimentary stats to go along with it.  
    • Really zooming the microscope in on one game with Tarik Skubal, would you consider batting Austin Slater 3rd or 4th to basically pinch hit in the 1st inning, and then replace him in LF with Cowser in the top of the 2nd inning. A tactic that might look good to the SIGBOT but could freak out actual ballplayers.
    • It would make sense. I think there are four possibilities for not announcing Eflin yet: 1. It’s going to be Eflin, we’re just waiting to announce to make it harder for Tigers/Royals to prepare. 2. Hyde and FO are discussing whether to slot Eflin for game 3 to possibly save him for ALDS game 1. 3. Hyde and FO are discussing a possible opener strategy for game 2. 4. Eflin has some minor aches/pains/soreness so we’re delaying the announcement to make sure he will be healthy enough. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...