How many rookies in the lineup is too many to win?

[wildcard]

I think most believe the Westburg or Holliday will be a 2B.  Westburg is not finished with his adjustment period IMO.  I expect a lot more from Westburg than a 715 OPS.

Then we move to 3B and Urias seems replaceable with Ortiz or Westburg.   More rookie adjustment periods.

Now there is talk about replacing Hays with Cowser.  Trading Hays for a pitcher.

I can see Cowser and/or Kjerstad replacing McKenna or Hicks.  They had backup/part time positions.

We saw Elias begin this transition slowly.   Adley in 2022.  Gunnar in 2023.  He got through one rookie adjustment period and then went to the next.  Now it seems the flood gates are about to open.

So I ask.   How many rookies will be too many rookies in the lineup for the O's contend?

Edited November 6, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

Depends how good your rookies are.  If we had 9 guys as good as Adley and Gunnar were as rookies, I’d stick them all out there.  

[24fps]

Not including pitchers, no more than two to break camp in 2024.  That doesn't include Westburg who I think already passed the test, but would include Cowser, Kjerstad and Ortiz.  This is not a comment on rookie talent but Elias' apparent unwillingness to distance the team too far from a reliance on vets to keep winning.

I can see as many as four on the roster and playing regularly by the trade deadline.  FWIW I would promote the rookies a little more aggressively than I think Elias will.

[Sports Guy]

Been talking about this for a month now.

This is the big question. There is no definitive answer. It just depends on how good they are and how quickly they get there.  

[RZNJ]

As Frobby said, depends on how good the rookies are.   Westburg looks like he’s in there somewhere.   At most, I see two other rookies in the lineup to start the year but without trades it could be zero.

[wildcard]

They can play rookies.  But can they play rookies going through adjustment periods and contend?

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

So I ask.   How many rookies will be too many rookies in the lineup for the O's contend?

It's a silly question, really.  It all depends on performance.  We could replace every 'vet' in the lineup with rookies, and as long as those rookies performed well there would not be a drop off in our ability to contend.  We could only bring up one and if they struggle then our ability to contend could be compromised.  The 'right' answer isn't 1 or 2 or 3 or whatever, the answer is 'it depends' really.  Expecting a rookie to replace Santanders numbers with the bats is much different than expecting them to replace the at bats that Mateo and Urias or Frazier gave us.  If it was my call Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser and Kjerstad would all be on the OD roster.  Mayo would be up as soon as I was comfortable with his defense, where ever I decide his MLB future would be (1st, 3rd).  Holiday wouldn't see the MLB roster until fall or so.  Of course trades could alter much of this, especially in having the IF depth and not enough positions for them all (Westburg, Ortiz, Henderson, Mayo, Holiday, Norby, etc).  Of that group Henderson, Mayo and Holiday are untouchable, so Ortiz/Norby/Westburg are trade bait or utility candidates long term or need moved to OF if they have the ability/talent.  

 

[E-D-D-I-E]

Hard to say but at least 1 more needs to play this year. At this rate, many prospects will be 27 at their first look. I am on the play the kids, trade the kids, side. I want Kjerstad to play RF and Santander to be traded. I want Ortiz to get the shot at 3rd. You have to see how they handle the big leagues or trade them. IE. having Cowser sit in AAA as a backup or IF someone gets hurt, is a waste of a nice trade piece. Sometimes playing it safe fails too. 

[forphase1]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

They can play rookies.  But can they play rookies going through adjustment periods and contend?

Yes.  Not everyone goes through much of an adjustment period, while some never get through the adjustment period.  Just won't know until we throw them to the fire unfortunately.  Elias seems to be fairly risk adverse, so I think it's fair to say that only a few (1-2) get the chance right off the bat.  I'd likely do it otherwise, but I'm not in charge (thankfully!).  

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

They can play rookies.  But can they play rookies going through adjustment periods and contend?

Yes of course.

Let’s go with this hypothetical:

Trade Santander and Mountcastle

Trade one of Westburg or Ortiz

Holliday goes to the minors for defense/service time..up by June 1.

Mayo, Kjerstad and Cowser make OD roster.

 

offense is this:

IFers: OHearn, Mayo, Westburg/Ortiz, Gunnar, Urias, Mateo

OFers: Kjerstad, Cowser, Mullins, Hilliard, Hays

C- Adley, McCann

So, 3 rookies to start and a 4th in Holliday by June.

Why can’t that offense compete?  I mean, it may not but it may not if we kept the vets too.

What I would say and it’s what I have said all offseason, I think if your intention is to insert 3-4 rookies into the lineup this year, that means we should upgrade the pitching staff. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes of course.

Let’s go with this hypothetical:

Trade Santander and Mountcastle

Trade one of Westburg or Ortiz

Holliday goes to the minors for defense/service time..up by June 1.

Mayo, Kjerstad and Cowser make OD roster.

 

offense is this:

IFers: OHearn, Mayo, Westburg/Ortiz, Gunnar, Urias, Mateo

OFers: Kjerstad, Cowser, Mullins, Hilliard, Hays

C- Adley, McCann

So, 3 rookies to start and a 4th in Holliday by June.

Why can’t that offense compete?  I mean, it may not but it may not if we kept the vets too.

What I would say and it’s what I have said all offseason, I think if your intention is to insert 3-4 rookies into the lineup this year, that means we should upgrade the pitching staff. 

"What I would say and it’s what I have said all offseason, I think if your intention is to insert 3-4 rookies into the lineup this year, that means we should upgrade the pitching staff. "

 

This is true. You hope the 2nd half, the young bucks turn it on. Mateo and Urias...ouch. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

"What I would say and it’s what I have said all offseason, I think if your intention is to insert 3-4 rookies into the lineup this year, that means we should upgrade the pitching staff. "

 

This is true. You hope the 2nd half, the young bucks turn it on. Mateo and Urias...ouch. 

Mateo and Urias help with run prevention. Urias can hit a little and will get on base some.

One of them is gone when Holliday comes up.

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo and Urias help with run prevention. Urias can hit a little and will get on base some.

One of them is gone when Holliday comes up.

Except both of their defenses took a step back this year AND can be replaced with Ortiz by and large with maybe a better, more consistent bat.  Certainly not a worse bat than Mateo showed post April.  Both should be gone IMO regardless of when Holiday comes up.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, forphase1 said:

Except both of their defenses took a step back this year AND can be replaced with Ortiz by and large with maybe a better, more consistent bat.  Certainly not a worse bat than Mateo showed post April.  Both should be gone IMO regardless of when Holiday comes up.  

The defense did take a step back but I expect it to still be good.

In the scenario I said, Ortiz is either already starting or is traded. 
 

There is nothing wrong with having Urias as a UTI guy that gets 200-300 at bats.

[E-D-D-I-E]

5 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Except both of their defenses took a step back this year AND can be replaced with Ortiz by and large with maybe a better, more consistent bat.  Certainly not a worse bat than Mateo showed post April.  Both should be gone IMO regardless of when Holiday comes up.  

A 5th rookie. One I am not opposed to for sure.