How many rookies in the lineup is too many to win?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Wow, one bullpen arm was worth five wins.

And that is with him being hurt part of the season and blowing six saves.

There is a psychological effect on teams if the back end of your pen is blowing leads and losing you games. 
 

I have always felt that WAR does an awful job of truly measuring the valuing of a reliever/bullpen. Some of that isn’t the fault of the stat because it can’t be measured but I think an argument exists that the bullpen is the most important part of a team, especially when you get into the playoffs.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a psychological effect on teams if the back end of your pen is blowing leads and losing you games. 
 

I have always felt that WAR does an awful job of truly measuring the valuing of a reliever/bullpen. Some of that isn’t the fault of the stat because it can’t be measured but I think an argument exists that the bullpen is the most important part of a team, especially when you get into the playoffs.

I didn't mention WAR, I just said five wins, which was your number.

I think that's high and players are not nearly as mentally weak as folks on this board suggest.

Felix had a great year but he was also hurt for a decent portion and blew six saves. 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I didn't mention WAR, I just said five wins, which was your number.

I think that's high and players are not nearly as mentally weak as folks on this board suggest.

Felix had a great year but he was also hurt for a decent portion and blew six saves. 

 

 

Well that stat is bs due to many of the circumstances behind several of those “blown saves” and it’s certainly not something to hang on to.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well that stat is bs due to many of the circumstances behind several of those “blown saves” and it’s certainly not something to hang on to.

Any stat that discredits an opinion of yours is BS.

 

I'm not about to go search the records but I'm guessing at least a couple of those saves could have easily been blown saves.  That's the way baseball works, sometimes you pitch well and blow the save anyway, sometimes you crap the bed but get the save.

 

[Pickles]

18 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

You are absolutely correct that they were a mid 90's win team, and I don't think a +7 vs the expected win total is way out of line. 

 

My biggest concern is people saying basically the same team will repeat a similar performance. There's no Bautista. Cano was basically unhittable through June. Even Mateo was on an absolute tear for a spell. I worry that there were some performances that need to be replaced..

I grant by the same token, a mid 90s team could easily win 88 games as well.

But if we want to just talk baseline talent, I think this team has to be looked at as a 90-95 win team.  And they damn well might win 102.

Yes, some guys will not perform as well as last year, but others will perform better.

As a young team, and a team adding talent in house, it's reasonable to expect that the internal movement of the team will actually be upward.

Again, look across the infield.  They could literally get better production at every position next year and it wouldn't be outrageous.

1b: Mountcastle is healthy all season.  No vertigo.  Might finally have that breakout year, which a lot of people thought might happen this year.

2b: Full season of Westburg, and Holliday.

SS: Ortiz is starting SS from day one. He's an upgrade defensively over last year, and cumulatively equals the offense.

3b: Henderson plays here all season.

Now, sure that's a rosy picture, but even the bleakest of forecasts must take into account that the Orioles go several guys deep at each position who are likely at least average regulars.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Any stat that discredits an opinion of yours is BS.

 

I'm not about to go search the records but I'm guessing at least a couple of those saves could have easily been blown saves.  That's the way baseball works, sometimes you pitch well and blow the save anyway, sometimes you crap the bed but get the save.

 

No, a BS stat is a bs stat. Getting credited for a blown saves in extra innings of fake baseball is a stupid stat.

There were a few legit ones, including McKenna dropping a ball…but 2-3 of them were the extra inning bs.

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I grant by the same token, a mid 90s team could easily win 88 games as well.

But if we want to just talk baseline talent, I think this team has to be looked at as a 90-95 win team.  And they damn well might win 102.

Yes, some guys will not perform as well as last year, but others will perform better.

As a young team, and a team adding talent in house, it's reasonable to expect that the internal movement of the team will actually be upward.

Again, look across the infield.  They could literally get better production at every position next year and it wouldn't be outrageous.

1b: Mountcastle is healthy all season.  No vertigo.  Might finally have that breakout year, which a lot of people thought might happen this year.

2b: Full season of Westburg, and Holliday.

SS: Ortiz is starting SS from day one. He's an upgrade defensively over last year, and cumulatively equals the offense.

3b: Henderson plays here all season.

Now, sure that's a rosy picture, but even the bleakest of forecasts must take into account that the Orioles go several guys deep at each position who are likely at least average regulars.

You also aren’t taking into account potential improvement by other teams in division. 
 

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You also aren’t taking into account potential improvement by other teams in division. 
 

How do you think Franco's gonna do next year?

The other teams are older,  more expensive, with worse farm systems.

The natural order favors us.

[24fps]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You also aren’t taking into account potential improvement by other teams in division. 
 

The Yankees were genuinely dreadful (by their standards) in 2023 and Boston wasn't far behind.  We all know that won't last.

[24fps]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

How do you think Franco's gonna do next year?

The other teams are older,  more expensive, with worse farm systems.

The natural order favors us.

The natural order is big dogs eat first.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Pickles said:

How do you think Franco's gonna do next year?

The other teams are older,  more expensive, with worse farm systems.

The natural order favors us.

I think you are being incredibly naive. 
 

That said, I’m not saying the Os won’t be the best team, I’m saying other teams will be better. That’s just another reason why returning the exact same team isn’t some guarantee to win 95ish games.

[OriolesMagic83]

I can't see the O's breaking camp with more than 2 rookie position players.  I don't count Westburg as a rookie, as I believe his rookie eligibility has been used up.

These positions are almost set in stone:

C  Adley

SS/3B Gunnar

IF Westburg (this just means he will be playing somewhere in the IF)

CF Mullins

The other positions have veterans who could be traded or are open (which position of SS/3B that Gunnar is not playing)

I can't see Elias trying to replace 2 IF or 2 OF positions at the same time.  Too much could go wrong. 

My picks are Kjerstad and Ortiz.  Kjerstad can play RF/1B/DH.  Ortiz can play 2B/3B/SS.  It could be the O's don't bring back O'Hearn and Mateo, which can give these guys somewhat regular but limited at bats until they prove themselves.  Urias is kept as a fall back in case Ortiz doesn't work out.  Holliday is kept down till June to "work on his defense".

Elias has shown a willingness to play the youngsters but has been cautious about introducing multiple guys at once, so that's what I based this on. 

[Sports Guy]

If they are all with the organization, I would be shocked if Cowser, Kjerstad and Ortiz don’t start the season with the Os.

I would be equally shocked if Mayo or Holliday start the season with the team.

[Pickles]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are being incredibly naive. 
 

That said, I’m not saying the Os won’t be the best team, I’m saying other teams will be better. That’s just another reason why returning the exact same team isn’t some guarantee to win 95ish games.

There are no guarantees period.  Not to pick on anybody, but there have been plenty of calls for "big deals" that would have made the team worse off.

They are going to make moves.  There are no static off-seasons.  But they won't make moves nearly as drastic or bold as you propose, imo.

And yet they will be well positioned to make the playoffs, if not win the East outright, next year on April 1st, barring some disastrous luck.

34 minutes ago, 24fps said:

The natural order is big dogs eat first.

I should be more accurate: We have the wind at our back for a few more seasons.  In the long run the system is not in our favor, for sure.

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

There are no guarantees period.  Not to pick on anybody, but there have been plenty of calls for "big deals" that would have made the team worse off.

They are going to make moves.  There are no static off-seasons.  But they won't make moves nearly as drastic or bold as you propose, imo.

And yet they will be well positioned to make the playoffs, if not win the East outright, next year on April 1st, barring some disastrous luck.

I should be more accurate: We have the wind at our back for a few more seasons.  In the long run the system is not in our favor, for sure.

 

This discussion is about you saying they could bring back the same exact team and they should be viewed as a 95 win team. While it’s possible, it’s not probable. You are ignoring so many important factors. 
 

If you want to move the goal posts and take the discussion in a different direction, that’s fine…but this team needs some real improvements and it’s naive to think otherwise.

Its still going to be largely the same team/players from the org but they need some real outside help too.