How many rookies in the lineup is too many to win?

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

1975?  Really.  Why don't you join Drungo and go back to 1908.

Did rookies not have to adjust in 1975? I’m sure I could find a more recent team that had two rookies playing key roles.  I was going to college in the Boston area in 1975 so those two came to mind.

This year, the Reds gave almost 2,000 plate appearances to rookies.  They were eliminated in the 161st game of the season.   Does that meet your definition of contending?   To the extent they weren’t better, I’d say it was because the rest of the team wasn’t very good, not because of the rookies.  

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Sound good. But how?

I think by staggering the talent that is coming up.  Not too many rookies at once but keep them coming as soon as someone gets through the adjustment period.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Did rookies not have to adjust in 1975? I’m sure I could find a more recent team that had two rookies playing key roles.  I was going to college in the Boston area in 1975 so those two came to mind.

This year, the Reds gave almost 2,000 plate appearances to rookies.  They were eliminated in the 161st game of the season.   Does that meet your definition of contending?   To the extent they weren’t better, I’d say it was because the rest of the team wasn’t very good, not because of the rookies.  

But the rest of the O's won 101 games.  The O's should not just throw that away.

[forphase1]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am just going by what has happen to the O's top talent in Adley, Gunnar, GRod and Westburg.   

Well sure, if you want to take such a SSS as 4 rookies out of the dozens that has gotten a shot in the past few years or the 100s or 1000s that have gotten a shot over the past few decades, feel free.  Fact is just because OUR top talent haven't had immediate success in the majors doesn't mean that all Os rookies are going to automatically struggle and need some long, drawn out adjustment period before contributing to the teams change to win and contend.  Some will.  Some won't.  I'm certainly not going to act like all are going to hit immediately, as many, maybe ever most, won't.  But it's equally wrong to assume they are all going to struggle immediately as not all rookies do.  Unfortunately we just don't know until they get the chance.  

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think by staggering the talent that is coming up.  Not too many rookies at once but keep them coming as soon as someone gets through the adjustment period.

So Mayo can only be promoted when Kjerstad has adjusted? And then Holliday waits for Mayo? Etc.?

I don't think we have that luxury. What if they never adjust?

[Moose Milligan]

No way to know until the games start.  It's a bit silly, I agree with @forphase1 

If they're as good as Adley and Gunnar, it doesn't matter.  

 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

Well sure, if you want to take such a SSS as 4 rookies out of the dozens that has gotten a shot in the past few years or the 100s or 1000s that have gotten a shot over the past few decades, feel free.  Fact is just because OUR top talent haven't had immediate success in the majors doesn't mean that all Os rookies are going to automatically struggle and need some long, drawn out adjustment period before contributing to the teams change to win and contend.  Some will.  Some won't.  I'm certainly not going to act like all are going to hit immediately, as many, maybe ever most, won't.  But it's equally wrong to assume they are all going to struggle immediately as not all rookies do.  Unfortunately we just don't know until they get the chance.  

I would plan that they will have a adjustment period and hope they don't.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

So Mayo can only be promoted when Kjerstad has adjusted? And then Holliday waits for Mayo? Etc.?

I don't think we have that luxury. What if they never adjust?

They have options.  What happened to GRod when he did not adjust.  He went to AAA. Made corrections and came back up.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But the rest of the O's won 101 games.  The O's should not just throw that away.

Who is arguing otherwise?  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

But the rest of the O's won 101 games.  The O's should not just throw that away.

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make.  Is somebody arguing that we should go play a bunch of rookies just to play them?  You play them if you think you can improve your team by trading some veterans for other things you need and replacing them with rookies.   Or, replacing someone like Frazier with a rookie.   

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make.  

He's not making points.  

 

[Aristotelian]

Sometimes rookies hit right away, look at Evan Carter. And veterans go through slumps, look at Mullins' second half and playoffs. It is probably true that rookies are higher risk with a bigger range of outcomes, so there is just more uncertainty than you'd have with veterans who have an established floor. Rather than put a hard number on it I would just play the rookie if they are ready and appear to be the best option. 

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I doubt that Elias off season goal is to make the offense worse.

He may not consider going to the younger and more talented players and replacing more free swinging OBP challenged players a path to a worse offense.

[maybenxtyr]

55 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But the rest of the O's won 101 games.  The O's should not just throw that away.

There's a pretty decent chance that if they returned the same exact team as the 2023 one, that they would not come anywhere close to 101 wins.

 

Staggering rookie debuts will work to some extent, but they are in a sticky situation because so many seem ready at one time because of the tanking period.

[oriole]

Start the year with Ortiz at SS and then reevaluate when Holliday is ready. Since Henderson and Westburg are full time players (at least they should be) then I’d consider Ortiz/Holliday as Rookie 1.

Keep Kjerstad on the roster to split DH/RF with Santander. Cowser can be interchangeable here. As currently constructed there doesn’t seem to be room for both Kjerstad and Cowser. That’s Rookie 2.

No one else seems imminent enough to worry about. Maybe Mayo? But there’s no position for him without a major shake up. Maybe he could hold down 3B until Holliday makes his way on the roster. But I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about having Ortiz, Mayo, and Holliday all in the lineup at the same time. There’s Norby, but that guy is just SOL in this organization. 

 

Who else is there? McDermott and Povich? If at any point in the season they are depending on those guys, something has gone terribly wrong and it doesn’t really matter because they’re probably out of contention anyways.