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FA Starters that fit Elias' pattern


wildcard

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4 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

Gibson career ERA+ before 2023: 93. Gibson 2023 ERA+: 87. What were you expecting?

You get what you pay for. I expected a tad over replacement level. They gave that. I was more unhappy with the Gibson signing than the Lyles signing since the 2023 Orioles' expectation was a contender and playoffs. 

We needed two starting pitcher additions and we got Gibson and Irvin. A higher profile pitching addition could have swung things differently in October. I can't even remember if either of them made the playoff roster.

 

When Gibson was signed, contender and playoffs was 2024.

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9 minutes ago, 24fps said:

When Gibson was signed, contender and playoffs was 2024.

Says who? The master plan of some OH poster with no connection to the team? The 2022 Orioles team won 83 games while trying to tank, had the best farm system in baseball, and had plenty of money to spend. 

Maybe you can argue the goal was 2024 in 2021! That changed with 83 wins in 2022. 

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/national/story/2023-02-03/elias-welcomes-expectations-fueled-by-orioles-potential

Very quick google search from prior to the 2023 season. “This is honestly the first spring training I’ve been standing here openly talking about the playoffs,” Elias said. “I think that’s a big deal.”

I'm sure there are a dozen quotes just like that one. Coming from a guy who's very good at saying nothing when talking. 

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11 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

Says who? The master plan of some OH poster with no connection to the team? The 2022 Orioles team won 83 games while trying to tank, had the best farm system in baseball, and had plenty of money to spend. 

Maybe you can argue the goal was 2024 in 2021! That changed with 83 wins in 2022. 

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/national/story/2023-02-03/elias-welcomes-expectations-fueled-by-orioles-potential

Very quick google search from prior to the 2023 season. “This is honestly the first spring training I’ve been standing here openly talking about the playoffs,” Elias said. “I think that’s a big deal.”

I'm sure there are a dozen quotes just like that one. Coming from a guy who's very good at saying nothing when talking. 

Few things in life are more predictable than come the Winter Meetings, 30 MLB GM’s will spend the next couple of months genially pumping sunshine up our collective butts. Helped, of course, by an army of sportswriters whose intimate knowledge of a specific team is less important than meeting a deadline.

83 wins raised a few eyebrows.  Evidently John Angelos’ not among them. You complained in the post I responded to (correctly IMO) that Gibson and Irvin were not enough, so why were we supposed to conclude that the O’s are now serious about getting back in the game?  As the publisher of this website occasionally reminds us, actions speak louder than words.

101 wins is an entirely different matter.  The team is unquestionably competitive now, and I’m going to focus on what ownership does to support this new reality, not what Elias says during some pro forma press conference. 

BTW, I don’t get the swipe at ME.  Compared to Duquette and MacPhail he’s refreshingly open.

 

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5 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Few things in life are more predictable than come the Winter Meetings, 30 MLB GM’s will spend the next couple of months genially pumping sunshine up our collective butts. Helped, of course, by an army of sportswriters whose intimate knowledge of a specific team is less important than meeting a deadline.

83 wins raised a few eyebrows.  Evidently John Angelos’ not among them. You complained in the post I responded to (correctly IMO) that Gibson and Irvin were not enough, so why were we supposed to conclude that the O’s are now serious about getting back in the game?  As the publisher of this website occasionally reminds us, actions speak louder than words.

101 wins is an entirely different matter.  The team is unquestionably competitive now, and I’m going to focus on what ownership does to support this new reality, not what Elias says during some pro forma press conference. 

BTW, I don’t get the swipe at ME.  Compared to Duquette and MacPhail he’s refreshingly open.

 

Not a swipe. A baseball GM doesn't want to raise eyebrows everytime they answer a reporter's question, so they have to get good at saying nothing while talking. Mike Elias is good at that. It's part of his job.

He was saying playoffs before the 2023 season. The 2022 Orioles were in playoff contention until the last week of the season while deploying the likes of Rougned Odor, Robinson Chirinos, Tyler Nevin, Chris Owings, Anthony Bemboom, Jesus Augilar, Richie Martin, Kelvin Guttieriez, Jonathan Arauz, Brett Phillips, and DJ Stewart. And they were what, one of the best teams in baseball since Adley got called up?

John Angelos lack of spending is one thing. We don't know if he will open up the pocketbook any more than he did last season. 

The EXPECTATION of a young, cheap, 83 win team with many additions by subtractions incoming, more prospect help on the way, and no bad contracts on the books is ABSOLUTELY not a regression from 83 wins, or even a stagnation from 83 wins. The only realistic expectation for the people responsible for running a major league baseball team is improvement. How could management justify getting worse in 2023? Just slight improvement from 83 wins is playoffs. This year's Diamondbacks won 84 games. 

101 wins was an improvement. We could have been better (and of course we need to get better this off-season). We saw that in October. I believe the simpliest way the 2023 Orioles could have been better is if the spots Gibson and Irvin occupied went to quality major league starting pitchers. We needed to fill two rotation spots and we filled them with below average production. 

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

The biggest FA stumbling block is two names: SCOTT BORAS!

 

 

Huh?

Who is he even representing this offseason?  I think the big names are Sean Manaea, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman.

Do you think the O's would be in on any of those names if Boras wasn't their agent?

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On 11/8/2023 at 9:19 AM, Matt Bennett said:

Johnson, McDermott, and Povich are fine prospects (our #10, #11, and #15 on MLB.com). Not elite prospects. We are hopeful that can turn into productive pieces. They in no way should be relied upon for 2024 or 2025 rotation innings and shape our 2024 off-season strategy. If their promotion cannot be denied and you have to make room, that's a good problem to have for a future time. What are the odds of that? Yes, Bradish, Grayson, and Kremer developed well. How many didn't develop? 

Waves of Orioles SP Prospects throughout Elias' tenure:

2019 Debut:

1. Dillon Tate: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> Never made a start. Converted into decent reliever. Provided a couple WAR and is now a non-tender candidate.

2. Hunter Harvey: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> Never made a start. Injuries and availability concerns led to a DFA after 0.5 WAR. 

2020 Debut:

1. Dean Kremer: mentioned previously. Turned into a useful middle/back end rotation piece. 

2. Keegan Akin: 2nd round pick  --> Poor starter. Temporary success as reliever. Non-tender candidate. 

3. Bruce Zimmermann: no success at big league level. Likely DFA. 

2021 Debut:

1. Zac Lowther: 2nd round pick --> no success at big league level and out of baseball

2. Tyler Wells --> durability and home-run concerns as starter. ERA and WHIP have looked nice but all peripherals and analytics suggest that was not to continue. Proven to be a nice piece in the bullpen. 

3. Mike Baumann: Shuttle bullpen guy at the big league level so far. Perhaps there's some improvement to be had but he's already 28. 

2022 Debut:

1. Kyle Bradish: STUD

2. DL Hall: 1st round pick, former top 100 prospect --> struggles starting at AAA. Looks like he can be a useful bullpen piece. 

3. Cody Sedlock: 2016 1st round pick --> one cup of coffee in majors

2023 Debut: 

1. Grayson Rodriguez: 1st round pick, former top 10 prospect --> down and up rookie campaign. We'll see if he takes the next step into an average and above average MLB starter. 

 

This is a useful post and illustrates that we can’t just assume that Johnson, McDetmott and Povich will fill our needs the next couple of years.   I think you undersell Wells and maybe Hall a little bit.  And, bottom line, the O’s had the 7th best ERA in the majors last year (14th in ERA+), 3rd best ERA after the all star break, so I’d say they did pretty well.  The starters were 11th in ERA, the bullpen was 5th.  So, it’s not like the O’s had subpar pitching, though obviously the goal is to get better.  For now, I’ll defer to Elias on how to get there, since what he’s been doing has been working.  That doesn’t mean that I expect him to follow the exact same path of the last two years, though he could.

 

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I’d rather have Gibson to get through 162 than these other 1-2 year realistic free agent options. He buys us time till the deadline to see where we’re at with everything. The only option I would explore other than him would be Quintana in a trade. Quintana would actually be a realistic playoff option as a SP in OPaCY. 

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On 11/8/2023 at 10:14 AM, Can_of_corn said:

After a quick search I see that Boras has ~175 clients.  99% of them are not going for free agent deals.

Your perspective may be influenced by a small number of clients that very viably do seek large free agent deals.

No, ROY's, guys that KNOW that they are gonna get paid. We don't disagree that it could happen. But taking our FO and Boras into play, the odds are scary long. IMO

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Both Fangraphs and MLBTR project Lugo and Wacha will get 3 year contracts.  I don't think the O's will go three years on either player.

So I am down to Lorenzen and Nick Martinez.  That makes Gibson on a one year contract back in the picture.  I don't like that because I think they need to improve over Gibson.

It makes a trade more likely IMO.

Edited by wildcard
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