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FA Starters that fit Elias' pattern


wildcard

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6 hours ago, wildcard said:

If Elias is looking for a starter that may put up an ERA under 4.00 with the O's  in 2024.   These starters projected to get 2 or 3 year contracts.  I think Elias would hold out for something in the 2/20-25M range.

In the last two years Elias has signed starters to one year contract but if he wants to improve to under a 4.00 ERA he may have to go two years.

Seth Lugo

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lugose01.shtml

Michael Wacha

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wachami01.shtml

Michael Lorenzen

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lorenmi01.shtml

Nick Martinez

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martini01.shtml

I am not saying Elias will go FA.  He may trade instead.  But I think he will consider both paths if he follows what he has done in the past.

This is not the type of pitcher Elias has targeted before.   Lyles pitched 180 innings the previous year.  Gibson 167.  Both had been durable the 2-3 preceding years AND they were relatively cheap on a 1 year deal.   
 

If Elias goes cheap they’ll just sign Gibson.  If he wants a sub 4 ERA and innings he’s going to have to pay up which is why I think it comes down to Gibson or a trade.   The top trade guy seems to be Crease.  He’ll give the innings.  Not sure about the ERA but maybe.

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5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

As an SP?  Why do you think they'll be sub 4.00 ERA guys?  A few are mostly bullpen guys through their careers.  

Do you think they are likely to be better than Means/Kremer?

I think Means is a solid #3.   Kremer a 4/5.   These guys are #4 IMO.   Martinez has been a starter/reliever and I think Elias could par him with Wells. Wells could have a 3.30 ERA for the first half and Martinez a sub 4.00 ERS for the 2nd half.  

I know I am on the low end of what fans want this off season.  But this is what I think Elias will do. Holt will look at these pitchers and project what the O's system can do to improve them.

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7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Means is a solid #3.   Kremer a 4/5.   These guys are #4 IMO.   Martinez has been a starter/reliever and I think Elias could par him with Wells. Wells could have a 3.30 ERA for the first half and Martinez a sub 4.00 ERS for the 2nd half.  

I know I am on the low end of what fans want this off season.  But this is what I think Elias will do. Holt will look at these pitchers and project what the O's system can do to improve them.

I get that you are trying to sell us that you think this is what Elias will do but let’s face it, it’s what you think he should do.  No need to put lipstick on a pig.

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5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

This is not the type of pitcher Elias has targeted before.   Lyles pitched 180 innings the previous year.  Gibson 167.  Both had been durable the 2-3 preceding years AND they were relatively cheap on a 1 year deal.   
 

If Elias goes cheap they’ll just sign Gibson.  If he wants a sub 4 ERA and innings he’s going to have to pay up which is why I think it comes down to Gibson or a trade.   The top trade guy seems to be Crease.  He’ll give the innings.  Not sure about the ERA but maybe.

That is good logic.    Elias has gone for the innings in the passed.  Mainly because he did not have any starters that could go a lot of innings.  Now he has Bradish, GRod, and Kremer who all project to go 180 IP.    

What he really needs to lower the teams ERA is another starter that can put up a sub 4.00.  Gibson has proven he will be around a 5.00 ERA.  

I think Elias could structure a two year deal for a starter to pay more in the first year and less in the second to make that starter more attractive to trade after next season.   I believe Johnson, McDermott or Povich have chances to be in the rotation in 2025.

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7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

This whole idea of @wildcardto have Tyler Wells pitch one half of the season and another starter pitch the other half I can GUARANTEE is not something Elias is entertaining.

I don't agree.  I think Elias/Holt/Hyde all value what Wells did in the first half as a starter.  He was their best starter for almost 3 months.  

As they have to wrestle with what starters cost in dollars and traded prospects, Wells as a starter will look better and better.

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8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I get that you are trying to sell us that you think this is what Elias will do but let’s face it, it’s what you think he should do.  No need to put lipstick on a pig.

It's what I think he will do.   I would spent more money if I with in charge.  But that just does not happen with the O's.

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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't agree.  I think Elias/Holt/Hyde all value what Wells did in the first half as a starter.  He was their best starter for almost 3 months.  

As they have to wrestle with what starters cost in dollars and traded prospects, Wells as a starter will look better and better.

There’s a chance Wells is in the rotation in April.   They will not acquire an additional starter in the off season to pitch the 2nd half of the season or to pitch the first half with Wells taking over the 2nd half.

 

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I’m expecting one of Gibson, Wells, Irvin, Gibson, Quintana to fill out the rotation with Bradish, Means, GR, and Kremer. Sadly, Elias will have to talk JA into just giving him the money for Gibson. The Wildcard is a trade for Cease… only because we were rumored to have a deal done at the deadline. They could just pick back up at that starting point/framework. 

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48 minutes ago, wildcard said:

MLBTR has Gray signing for 4/90m.   I don't see the O's doing that.

I was seeing 3/$60. I would agree, if he goes to 4years I'm out. Much rather have Yamamoto for 5-6 years than Gray through age 37. If we can't play in that tier, then trade for Senga, Keller, or Cease. 

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17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There’s a chance Wells is in the rotation in April.   They will not acquire an additional starter in the off season to pitch the 2nd half of the season or to pitch the first half with Wells taking over the 2nd half.

 

Wacha, Lugo and Lorenzen would all go right into the rotation.   Wells in the pen.    Martinez could begin the season in the pen and become a starter if Wells falters.

Edited by wildcard
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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Wacha, Lugo and Lorenzen would all go right into the rotation.   Wells in the pen.    Martinez could begin the season in the pen and become a starter if Wells falters.

I understand your strategy.  I don’t believe Elias will sign someone with that strategy in mind.   
 

And when Wacha breaks down you simply take Wells out of the bullpen and into the rotation?

Edited by RZNJ
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