Just a Rumor

[Going Underground]

2 hours ago, Keygans said:

Good morning....got a non-update update:

Apparently, we might as well put this rumor to rest for now.   Yes, there is an offer and it is from that group, and they do have an "agreement in place"...BUT....they are waiting for PA to leave us before anything happens.   @Frobby might be able to explain, but apparently there are MAJOR MAJOR TAX implications here in terms of estate planning and $$.   PA's health is declining rapidly supposedly so that is why the news is leaking out...if its news at all. 

Please don't shoot the messenger, and I will shut up as to not end up like the other "insiders'' of the past.     Back to the off-season boys. 

I heard this rumor from my barber of all people last week. Then heard it from two people I work with who are not people who make stuff up. I figured like the telephone game it was spreading so I took it with a grain of salt. Then came on and saw this. We shall see but still the tax liability thing gives me pause.Also heard another rumor that the group who put up the  money for  the CFG Arena wants a minority piece of the Orioles. Kevin Durant actually.  Ok,enough rumors for now. Now back to our regularly scheduled hot stove league 

[Going Underground]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

I put zero credence in this rumor.  Zero.

For one thing, it was only in the last four years that MLB decided to permit investment firms to own a minority stake in a major league team.  So far as I know, investment firms are not allowed to have a majority stake in a major league team.

Now, if an individual who owns all or a large portion of the Carlyle Group, say David Rubenstein, wanted to buy an MLB team, that’s obviously permissible.  But that’s not what this rumor says.  And the part about Peter Angelo’s’ involvement in the decision is not credible.

 

Rubenstein is from Baltimore and went to City College and is a life long Oriole fan. His name has been brought up before in rumors.

[Rbiggs2525]

If true, which would be some outstanding news. How early does the extra flow of cash impact our signings? We all agree the Orioles can operate at 150 million $ payroll and easily be profitable. I prefer to stick to keeping contracts under 4 years to keep money saved for Adley and Gunnar. Sure would make for an interesting offseason if an influx of cash hit this team.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

If true, which would be some outstanding news. How early does the extra flow of cash impact our signings? We all agree the Orioles can operate at 150 million $ payroll and easily be profitable. I prefer to stick to keeping contracts under 4 years to keep money saved for Adley and Gunnar. Sure would make for an interesting offseason if an influx of cash hit this team.

I wouldn't bet on an extra flow of cash.

We might see a situation in which the team is purchased and is forced to carry a huge amount of debt.  It's the way these things are done a lot of the time. 

[UMDTerrapins]

Let’s assume for a second that the rumors of an agreement being in place for selling the team after PA has passed are true. 
 

Let’s say you were that buyer, and you had no idea how long it will be until the deal will become available. You also see that the team you’re waiting to buy just won 101 games and is bursting with young talent,  with even more coming soon. 
 

Would you consider improving your agreed purchase price by an amount equal to the increased tax liability in order to facilitate the sale before PA passes? 
 

I’m not saying that’s what’s going on here, but if I was waiting to buy a team that just finished year one of a dynasty period, I might be itching to make the move right away. 
 

When i try to analyze hypotheticals, I measure by how many assumptions are needed in order for the hypothetical to be true. The only assumptions here are that a deal is already agreed to for when PA is gone, and that the new owners are contemplating how to make that deal happen sooner rather than later. The first is the bigger leap. The second isn’t much of a leap at all. If you had a deal in place, you’d be itching to make it happen right away too. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by UMDTerrapins

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Let’s assume for a second that the rumors of an agreement being in place for selling the team after PA has passed are true. 
 

Let’s say you were that buyer, and you had no idea how long it will be until the deal will become available. You also see that the team you’re waiting to buy just won 101 games and is bursting with young talent,  with even more coming soon. 
 

Would you consider improving your agreed purchase price by an amount equal to the increased tax liability in order to facilitate the sale before PA passes? 
 

I’m not saying that’s what’s going on here, but if I was waiting to buy a team that just finished year one of a dynasty period, I might be itching to make the move right away. 

I get what you are saying but now factor in that you are not a Cohen type worth close to 20B and you are going to have to assume a substantial amount of debt to purchase the team.  Can you afford that type of increase in cost?

If you are viewing this as an investment, and I'm sure they are, it doesn't make sense to me to do it that way.

[UMDTerrapins]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I get what you are saying but now factor in that you are not a Cohen type worth close to 20B and you are going to have to assume a substantial amount of debt to purchase the team.  Can you afford that type of increase in cost?

If you are viewing this as an investment, and I'm sure they are, it doesn't make sense to me to do it that way.

Can you afford to wait is the larger question. You have a tentative agreement in principle in place based on a value determined at the tail end of a rebuild with still lagging attendance. Let’s say two years from now the team has seen a 25% increase in attendance, won a World Series, and has burned through two more dynasty years with payroll increasing even higher as the young talent starts getting close to their arbitration years. If PA passes then, that price may go up, or other prospective buyers may emerge. There’s an opportunity cost to consider. And there’s the ego part as well. Would you want to miss out on that opportunity to get a ring?  

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Keygans said:

Good morning....got a non-update update:

Apparently, we might as well put this rumor to rest for now.   Yes, there is an offer and it is from that group, and they do have an "agreement in place"...BUT....they are waiting for PA to leave us before anything happens.   @Frobby might be able to explain, but apparently there are MAJOR MAJOR TAX implications here in terms of estate planning and $$.   PA's health is declining rapidly supposedly so that is why the news is leaking out...if its news at all. 

Please don't shoot the messenger, and I will shut up as to not end up like the other "insiders'' of the past.     Back to the off-season boys. 

Just curious.

1.  Is this clarification of the rumor from the same source that you got the rumor from?

2. So the new owner would be the Carlyle Group not and individual like Rubenstein who just happens to be part of the group?

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Going Underground said:

Rubenstein is from Baltimore and went to City College and is a life long Oriole fan. His name has been brought up before in rumors.

We'll ignore the part about him going to Duke.  He's got some interesting stuff on his wiki page and isn't just some trust fund baby that couldn't pass the bar in MD.  He gives alot of money away to charity.  He doesn't seem like he'd be buying the O's to be a hated owner.  Yeah, he'll make his profits.  They all do.  But it seems like he would want to be loved.  

[Can_of_corn]

One season of post season ball with an early exit qualifies as year one of a dynasty now?

Shouldn't we wait just a bit on that?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Going Underground said:

Rubenstein is from Baltimore and went to City College and is a life long Oriole fan. His name has been brought up before in rumors.

I think he’d be a great owner.   But the rumor reported here is about Carlyle Group, not Rubenstein.   And that’s not possible under MLB’s current rules.  

Rubenstein is an incredibly charitable guy, who has pledged to give away half his wealth.  He does not need the income stream from a baseball team to find his lifestyle.  So, while I wouldn’t expect him to subsidize the Orioles, he doesn’t need to suck profits out of the team the way the Angelos family seems to be doing.  
 

[UMDTerrapins]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

One season of post season ball with an early exit qualifies as year one of a dynasty now?

Shouldn't we wait just a bit on that?

“Potential” dynasty period. I didn’t have my staff vet my post for wording.

[TAMC]

I understand that we are all having fun with an off-the-wall rumor, but given the saga about Leonsis wanting to buy the Nationals to add programming for Monumental (after dealing with MASN somehow), this article about possible new money for buying or increasing the funding of professional teams might be of interest.  Note that only certain types of investment groups can be part owners.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/08/wizards-capitals-qatar-ted-leonsis/

[Keygans]

30 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Just curious.

1.  Is this clarification of the rumor from the same source that you got the rumor from?

2. So the new owner would be the Carlyle Group not and individual like Rubenstein who just happens to be part of the group?

1.    Yeah it is.  He finally responded to my question saying basically 'hold your horses' .  He's not sure why it is coming out now unless PA's health is super bad. 

2.    He doesn't know.   It's all legal stuff.   The 'group' owning it has weird legal ramifications like Frobby said but one individual wants it.  

Edited November 15, 2023 by Keygans

[Keygans]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think he’d be a great owner.   But the rumor reported here is about Carlyle Group, not Rubenstein.   And that’s not possible under MLB’s current rules.  

Rubenstein is an incredibly charitable guy, who has pledged to give away half his wealth.  He does not need the income stream from a baseball team to find his lifestyle.  So, while I wouldn’t expect him to subsidize the Orioles, he doesn’t need to suck profits out of the team the way the Angelos family seems to be doing.  
 

This is all true, and I am not a lawyer, and don't play one on TV.   I suppose it could all be one giant pie sliced into a NUMBER or pieces.  That's how these things seem to work even with the Angelos family.    Rubenstein would be a different breed of owner if is he is indeed the bigger slice of pie.   I dont know about you guys, but I like pie this time of year... especially pumpkin.