Cease vs everyone else

[E-D-D-I-E]

Burnes. Easily.

Cost will be less on prospects and he sits at the top of the rotation. No long term risk and maybe he will want to stay. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Burnes. Easily.

Cost will be less on prospects and he sits at the top of the rotation. No long term risk and maybe he will want to stay. 

Even if he wants to stay, the Os won’t pay him (and they shouldn’t)

Im not so sure he costs less to acquire either.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The GM that was asking the moon for Cease is gone.

I’m sure the new guy will ask for the moon too.  Doesn’t mean he’s going to get it.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Attainable? That's very debatable considering the White Sox are going to try and make suitors overpay for that 2022 season. Also, I'm not sure what him finishing 2nd for the Cy Young two years ago really matters since that season is pretty clearly the outlier in his career. If anything it's the reason we shouldn't trade for him. We're trading for what we think he will do, not what he did once but is unlikely to ever do again. 

He had a 111 ERA+ in 2020, 112 in 2021.   For his career, including both his best and his worst, he’s at 113.   If I’m chasing him, that’s what I think I’m buying.  He’s comparable to free agents Eduardo Rodriguez (112) and Aaron Nola (113) in that regard, but younger.  

[Just Regular]

I generally have a beer and tacos attitude towards Cease and Burnes this winter to save hairsplitting efforts.    Both are strong front of rotation guys.     Both would let you bid with Kremer, Hall, Wells, McDermott type guys more freely.     If Hall-McDermott go for the first guy and you don't get the second guy, Kyle Gibson or an equivalent will always be there late for Adam Frazier money.

Just peaked at Cease's draft year to remind myself of his bonus ($1.5mm) - he and Justin Steele were a couple big money high school Arms accessible by cutting a deal with Kyle Schwarber.

Gerrit Cole had a 112 ERA+ as a Pirate, and Dylan Cease's career mark is 113.     

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He had a 111 ERA+ in 2020, 112 in 2021.   For his career, including both his best and his worst, he’s at 113.   If I’m chasing him, that’s what I think I’m buying.  He’s comparable to free agents Eduardo Rodriguez (112) and Aaron Nola (113) in that regard, but younger.  

I understand the E-Rod comparison, but if you look at other stats/metrics than Nola has had many more successful seasons than Cease, including one on par with Cease's 2022 season. I also think that Nola's pitching profile is more likely to age better than Cease's. There's very little margin for error when you flirt with leading MLB in walks nearly every season. 

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I understand the E-Rod comparison, but if you look at other stats/metrics than Nola has had many more successful seasons than Cease, including one on par with Cease's 2022 season. I also think that Nola's pitching profile is more likely to age better than Cease's. There's very little margin for error when you flirt with leading MLB in walks nearly every season. 

Is Aaron Nola a realistic target for the Orioles?

[Sports Guy]

I think the Cease vs Burnes vs Gray argument is interesting.  Cease is how I lean but obviously cost matters.

[Since1984]

22 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I understand the E-Rod comparison, but if you look at other stats/metrics than Nola has had many more successful seasons than Cease, including one on par with Cease's 2022 season. I also think that Nola's pitching profile is more likely to age better than Cease's. There's very little margin for error when you flirt with leading MLB in walks nearly every season. 

Nola is projected to get $150m/6 years by mlbtraderumors. I would go that route if he would sign for 3 years $75m. This is where Cease’s value comes into play.

Cease keeps growing on me, but i believe the trade will have to include a SP prospect.

[Since1984]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the Cease vs Burnes vs Gray argument is interesting.  Cease is how I lean but obviously cost matters.

I wonder what the analytics come up with on each of these pitcher profiles matching with the Orioles current SP/RP.

The Rays SP/RP portfolio has been mentioned for having different arm angles (in game analysis) the last several years. I think this will play into the type of acquisition the O’s will commit to.

Is Cease too similar to Bradish or Rodriguez? Or, is Nola to finesse for the playoff atmosphere?

I was at game one against the Rangers and Botchy focused on lefty matchups against Henderson as much as was possible. The O’s also struggled against pitchers throwing backwards, which can be more attributable to the atmosphere and lower MLB experience.

[NCRaven]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the Cease vs Burnes vs Gray argument is interesting.  Cease is how I lean but obviously cost matters.

We all know that the only way you will trade for Cease is if he comes in a blockbuster with Luis Robert.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

We all know that the only way you will trade for Cease is if he comes in a blockbuster with Luis Robert.

Nah, it doesn’t sound like they will part with Robert. Have moved on from that.

I would like to get Kopech back as well though.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

I understand the E-Rod comparison, but if you look at other stats/metrics than Nola has had many more successful seasons than Cease, including one on par with Cease's 2022 season. I also think that Nola's pitching profile is more likely to age better than Cease's. There's very little margin for error when you flirt with leading MLB in walks nearly every season. 

Oh, I’d rather have Nola for the next two years than Cease, no doubt about it.  But you’re not getting Nola for two years, you’re getting him for at least six at a very high annual cost.  That’s why Cease might be the better option.  

[Billy F-Face3]

I can count the pitchers I would rather have over Cease on 2 hands, at least.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I can count the pitchers I would rather have over Cease on 2 hands, at least.

Me too, but how many do you think will agree to contracts of three years or less?  I don't know for sure (who does?), but I suspect three years will max out the O's comfort level this offseason.  I wish it was different.