Cease vs everyone else

[forphase1]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d probably do Kjerstad + Ortiz + Povich despite the trade simulator suggesting that would be a bad trade for us (I think it undervalues all four players).  Personally, I believe that would be a really good deal for both sides.  I know many here won’t agree, but I’d do that all day if I were Elias.

I'd do that too if I was the Sox.  Orioles should run, not walk, away from that deal IMO.  I'd trade you one of Kjerstad or Ortiz, but not both AND Povich.  But I'm not quite as high on Cease as some others are.  I look at 2022 as an outlier, not what is really likely next year.  I'm not trading my #4, #6 and likely top 15 prospects (per Tonys list) for what Cease was last year, though I expect his numbers to be a bit better if he was an O with a better defense behind him.  

[Malike]

18 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I still say the WS will want ML help back and by that I mean established ML help.

Kremer or Mountcastle make sense to me.

I know the fan perspective is that you only want prospects. That would be mine. But the team definitely could want some kind of a representative product and then in a year or 2, they may be able to trade that guy for something too.

And btw, when I say this I mean in an expanded deal where we get multiple guys back. If it’s just Cease, im not sure they want that.

 

Getz did say at the winter meetings he doesn't like his team and that there isn't a player on his roster that is untouchable. There are more compelling players for me on the CWS than Cease if we're giving up real talent.

"I don't like our team."

Those were the words of White Sox general manager Chris Getz during last week's GM Meetings. Getz also said there are no "untouchables" on Chicago's roster this offseason.

MLB Trade Rumors and Signings

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d probably do Kjerstad + Ortiz + Povich despite the trade simulator suggesting that would be a bad trade for us (I think it undervalues all four players).  Personally, I believe that would be a really good deal for both sides.  I know many here won’t agree, but I’d do that all day if I were Elias.

I don’t think the O’s would do this.  The Sox either would need to move down the  Orioles food chain from Ortiz to Norby, or from Povich to a lesser prospect.  Povich probably is harder to pry away than some of our equivalent non-pitcher prospects,  because our MiL pitching depth isn’t that good, especially at the upper levels of the minors.  

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d probably do Kjerstad + Ortiz + Povich despite the trade simulator suggesting that would be a bad trade for us (I think it undervalues all four players).  Personally, I believe that would be a really good deal for both sides.  I know many here won’t agree, but I’d do that all day if I were Elias.

First of all, that trade simulator site is garbage.  Saying that’s a bad trade for you guys is a joke.

I wouldn’t pull the trigger on that one from the Os perspective. Cowser and Ortiz is the best offer I would do. Now, some will value Cowser more than Kjerstad and maybe that is why they that suggestion exists but I tend to side with Kjerstad but it’s close.

I would like Cease and the upside with him is great but he’s far from some sure thing pitcher that we can definitely rely on. It gets to a point where I would rather have Burnes, who is the better pitcher, if he costs less.

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think the O’s would do this.  The Sox either would need to move down the  Orioles food chain from Ortiz to Norby, or from Povich to a lesser prospect.  Povich probably is harder to pry away than some of our equivalent non-pitcher prospects,  because our MiL pitching depth isn’t that good, especially at the upper levels of the minors.  

I’d be willing to downgrade on the third piece and understand the challenge with Povich due to pitching depth concerns, but I don’t see Getz accepting anything less than one of Kjerstad or Cowser and one of Ortiz or Westburg plus a lesser third piece.  Norby’s profile is what I believe Getz is trying to move away from.

[Frobby]

Another decent comp for a Cease trade was the 2021 trade of Jose Berrios for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson.  Berrios had a career 107 ERA+ for the Twins, so a half-step below Cease (113) in that regard but he was having a solid season (122 ERA+) at the time of the trade.   Martin was a highly ranked but slipping prospect, ranked 19/22/22 by BA/MLB.com/BP entering 2021, but 47/52/52 by the time the season ended.  Woods Richardson had been ranked 69th by BA and 87th by MLB.com going into that season.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d be willing to downgrade on the third piece and understand the challenge with Povich due to pitching depth concerns, but I don’t see Getz accepting anything less than one of Kjerstad or Cowser and one of Ortiz or Westburg plus a lesser third piece.  Norby’s profile is what I believe Getz is trying to move away from.

I think that’s a reasonable position.   

[dystopia]

I would do Cowser and Ortiz plus one more lesser piece. Probably Cowser and Westburg too. 

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, that trade simulator site is garbage.  Saying that’s a bad trade for you guys is a joke.

I wouldn’t pull the trigger on that one from the Os perspective. Cowser and Ortiz is the best offer I would do. Now, some will value Cowser more than Kjerstad and maybe that is why they that suggestion exists but I tend to side with Kjerstad but it’s close.

I would like Cease and the upside with him is great but he’s far from some sure thing pitcher that we can definitely rely on. It gets to a point where I would rather have Burnes, who is the better pitcher, if he costs less.

Oh I don’t disagree on the trade simulator, it’s a fun tool but the inputs can be pretty bad at times.

As for Burnes, I don’t think the price would be that much cheaper.  Honestly, if you want a sure fire ace with similar control it’s going to cost you a lot more than what I’m suggesting for Cease.  And that may be worth it if you guys are all in on 2024.  I’d personally go with my proposed package for two years of Cease vs. what I’d guess would be a slightly reduced price for one year of Burnes.  But again, I fully expect Cease to rebound next year.

[Chicago White Sox]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Another decent comp for a Cease trade was the 2021 trade of Jose Berrios for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson.  Berrios had a career 107 ERA+ for the Twins, so a half-step below Cease (113) in that regard but he was having a solid season (122 ERA+) at the time of the trade.   Martin was a highly ranked but slipping prospect, ranked 19/22/22 by BA/MLB.com/BP entering 2021, but 47/52/52 by the time the season ended.  Woods Richardson had been ranked 69th by BA and 87th by MLB.com going into that season.  

This is a really good comp.

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I would do Cowser and Ortiz plus one more lesser piece. Probably Cowser and Westburg too. 

I’d probably do this.  I go back and forth on Kjerstad & Cowser.  The latter is the more rounded player, but lacks an elite tool like Kjerstad’s power and struggled pretty badly in his initial cup of coffee.  But as a White Sox fan who has endured poor defenders across the field for years, it would be nice to have an outfield with both Robert & Cowser.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d probably do Kjerstad + Ortiz + Povich despite the trade simulator suggesting that would be a bad trade for us (I think it undervalues all four players).  Personally, I believe that would be a really good deal for both sides.  I know many here won’t agree, but I’d do that all day if I were Elias.

It looks like your trade idea has gained some traction here.  I'd like to echo some of the other posters and say that I don't think the trade simulator site is very useful either, certainly for trades involving prospects from a team you closely follow.  Kjerstad/Cowser are interchangeable for me and I wouldn't care which one was traded as long as the other wasn't.  Ortiz would be a solid (and reasonable IMO) addition for the Sox, but I would also draw the line at adding Povich - a player from farther down the food chain, okay.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Oh I don’t disagree on the trade simulator, it’s a fun tool but the inputs can be pretty bad at times.

As for Burnes, I don’t think the price would be that much cheaper.  Honestly, if you want a sure fire ace with similar control it’s going to cost you a lot more than what I’m suggesting for Cease.  And that may be worth it if you guys are all in on 2024.  I’d personally go with my proposed package for two years of Cease vs. what I’d guess would be a slightly reduced price for one year of Burnes.  But again, I fully expect Cease to rebound next year.

You don’t trade for Cease thinking he’s going to be an ace though. He was in 2022 but nothing close to that any other year.

My expectation would be a solid #2 guy with upside to be more but more likely to be worse than better.

If I’m putting 3 or more players on the table, I’m likely looking to expand the deal to include Kopech.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

39 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Oh I don’t disagree on the trade simulator, it’s a fun tool but the inputs can be pretty bad at times.

As for Burnes, I don’t think the price would be that much cheaper.  Honestly, if you want a sure fire ace with similar control it’s going to cost you a lot more than what I’m suggesting for Cease.  And that may be worth it if you guys are all in on 2024.  I’d personally go with my proposed package for two years of Cease vs. what I’d guess would be a slightly reduced price for one year of Burnes.  But again, I fully expect Cease to rebound next year.

If we could be as confident that Cease was closer to the 22 than 23 version we’d have a deal.  There’s reason to hope.  What’s the reason to “fully expect”?

[Ripken]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d probably do this.  I go back and forth on Kjerstad & Cowser.  The latter is the more rounded player, but lacks an elite tool like Kjerstad’s power and struggled pretty badly in his initial cup of coffee.  But as a White Sox fan who has endured poor defenders across the field for years, it would be nice to have an outfield with both Robert & Cowser.

IMHO... the majority position here is that, though it's close, Kjerstad>Cowser and Westburg>Ortiz.  Not everyone will agree on that but I think most do.  All four are good prospects and, of course, none are sure things.  That's just what it feels like to me.  That's mostly based on Westburg doing a solid job in Baltimore last year and Cowser struggling (though obviously in SSS).  I'm not worried about Cowser's bat but I do like Kjerstad's bat more and Cowser's defense was alarming, especially for someone who we believe is a good OF.

So, I'd be fine with Cowser/Ortiz (with a lesser 3rd) and would simply not do Kjerstad/Westburg.  Maybe we'll all find out what Elias and the Sox think.