Cease vs everyone else

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, top 100 guys can be very overrated.  Top 10 prospects are also not created equal. The Orioles have 15-20 guys would make a lot of teams top 10 and probably 7-12 players that would make a lot of top 5s. This is why you guys(or any team) dealing with us is your best case scenario.

Secondly, you talk about us acting like our prospects are sure things (which literally zero people are doing) yet you want us to believe that we should ignore everything prior to 2022 because of a pitch. You act like it’s a sure thing that Cease won’t be the bust even though there are signs he could get worse. Cease is certainly more of a sure thing than any player likely to be traded for him but he’s also gone in 2 years and will carry larger salaries, where as you stand to get 2-4 players with all of their service time and cheap salaries ahead.  In terms of surplus value, you guys figure to have way more upside with that long term than the Os.

Of course, we can’t keep and play everyone and this team needs to win now, so you give that up for what you hope is a big upgrade.

Im going to go back to the list of teams I said are likely to be in the hunt for him…what are they going to give up that is what you are looking for?  To me, this is what the conversation really is about. What are these teams willing to give up? 

What do you want from St Louis? Or Cinci? Or the Dodgers? Or Boston? Or the Yankees? Or Houston?

I know you downvoted me you little cry baby, but my point was extremely valid (A rebuilding team is not going to let De Jong block anybody), but I very much agree with you here.

Cowser and Kjerstad are both top 25 prospects, who are both major league ready, who are you getting better than one of those?  Who is going to headline with something better than that?

[Chicago White Sox]

10 hours ago, dystopia said:

Cease just seems too risky to give up top prospects for. I mean do you really want to part with Ortiz and Cowser for what is likely to be 2 years of what likely will be a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA pitcher? This has a high chance of blowing up in our face while there is very little risk from the perspective of the White Sox. 
 

I think Cease will still be in Chicago next year because they overvalue him. 

Where does Ortiz slot into your roster next year?  Reserve infielder or will he open up at AAA?  Same thing with Cowser?  If a stating OF spot were to open up, does he get that opportunity over Kjerstad?  Just trying to understand how these guys are likely to be greater contributors to the 2024 Orioles than Dylan Cease would be.

And very little risk from the White Sox’s perspective?  Ortiz will be 26 next year and hasn’t proven anything in the majors and Cowser was awful in his cup of coffee.  As usual, the risk sits with the prospects who bust at incredibly high rates vs. the SP who has made 90 starts over the past three seasons while also posting the 8th highest fWAR and fourth highest Stuff+.  But again, if you simply look at ERA and ignore the god awful defense he played behind, you probably won’t like him much.

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I know you downvoted me you little cry baby, but my point was extremely valid (A rebuilding team is not going to let De Jong block anybody), but I very much agree with you here.

Cowser and Kjerstad are both top 25 prospects, who are both major league ready, who are you getting better than one of those?  Who is going to headline with something better than that?

I downvoted you because your comment was extremely stupid…even dumber than most of your comments, which is saying a lot. And because I downvoted you, you started name calling. 

And as I said, I doubt they those acquisitions block them from wanting Ortiz but if they are looking for more immediate needs, they could choose to look for other positions. That is and was my only point. We don’t know what they are thinking beyond wanting to upgrade to defense and they did that with those 2…but obviously they aren’t long term needs.

But maybe now they would rather have catching or CIF or OF or P help more than they would want a MIer.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Where does Ortiz slot into your roster next year?  Reserve infielder or will he open up at AAA?  Same thing with Cowser?  If a stating OF spot were to open up, does he get that opportunity over Kjerstad?  Just trying to understand how these guys are likely to be greater contributors to the 2024 Orioles than Dylan Cease would be.

And very little risk from the White Sox’s perspective?  Ortiz will be 26 next year and hasn’t proven anything in the majors and Cowser was awful in his cup of coffee.  As usual, the risk sits with the prospects who bust at incredibly high rates vs. the SP who has made 90 starts over the past three seasons while also posting the 8th highest fWAR and fourth highest Stuff+.  But again, if you simply look at ERA and ignore the god awful defense he played behind, you probably won’t like him much.

Ortiz could start at any IF position besides first next year. Lots of factors will determine that.

Cowser and Kjerstad can easily both start on the OD roster and get 400+ at bats in their first full seasons.

Why are you ignoring Cease’s control issues? He throws strikes at a below league average rate and his BB rate is high.  His velo was down and his statcast numbers weren’t all that great in 2023.

This is all to say that acting as if people are “simply looking at ERA” is rather foolish. There is more to it than that.   

Cease is not some can’t miss guy and isn’t even the best pitcher available in trade and teams that want to spend money can get similar or better for just cash. 
 

If the market dictates that they should get Cowser, so be it. I’m ok with that.  But again, who is giving up a top 25ish prospect and more for Cease? 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

Ortiz and Cowser is a fair asking price and maybe even a fair trade for both sides.    It takes two to tango though.  The WS might want different prospects.  Elias may feel strongly about not letting certain guys go or certain combinations.   And, just as importantly, we don’t know how badly Elias wants Cease.   
 

 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m an ass because you made an idiotic comment and I called you out for it?

No one asked your opinion. You chose to chime in with a stupid comment that is wrong and dumb on every level. You were just trolling and trying to start something for no reason. Acting as if you weren’t is just you being a liar.

Idiotic statement that you immediately ran away from?  A rebuilding team doesn't give a crap about DeJong.  Only you do.  Another Casey Kotchman.  An embarrassing reminder that you wouldn't know talent if it was making cuckold videos on the internet with your wife.  Which it probably is.

I can give my opinion whenever I want to, boy.  That's what this is.  A message board.  

[24fps]

23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Where does Ortiz slot into your roster next year?  Reserve infielder or will he open up at AAA?  Same thing with Cowser?  If a stating OF spot were to open up, does he get that opportunity over Kjerstad?  Just trying to understand how these guys are likely to be greater contributors to the 2024 Orioles than Dylan Cease would be.

And very little risk from the White Sox’s perspective?  Ortiz will be 26 next year and hasn’t proven anything in the majors and Cowser was awful in his cup of coffee.  As usual, the risk sits with the prospects who bust at incredibly high rates vs. the SP who has made 90 starts over the past three seasons while also posting the 8th highest fWAR and fourth highest Stuff+.  But again, if you simply look at ERA and ignore the god awful defense he played behind, you probably won’t like him much.

If Westburg hasn't been traded then he'll start in 2024.  If we can use history as a guide, Elias/Hyde won't start the year with more than two rookies in the field not including Westburg.  I suspect less.  It's in the Orioles' interest to thin out the logjam, no question.

I think it's a mistake to discount Ortiz too much, but "show me" is a tried and true internet argument if nothing else.  Colson Montgomery looks like a keeper so maybe Ortiz is redundant?  There's always Kyle Stowers.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Idiotic statement that you immediately ran away from?  A rebuilding team doesn't give a crap about DeJong.  Only you do.  Another Casey Kotchman.  An embarrassing reminder that you wouldn't know talent if it was making cuckold videos on the internet with your wife.  Which it probably is.

I can give my opinion whenever I want to, boy.  That's what this is.  A message board.  

Well that rebuilding team did care about him because they signed him to a ML deal.  They also traded for another player similar to him and are going to pay him more. They wanted the defense. 
 

DeJong was 7th in MLb in SS OAA, way better than Mateo. So yea, I think they care about him because he represents exactly what they are trying to upgrade. Now, he or Lopez certainly could be a UTI guy for them and Ortiz could start for them but they may not want Ortiz at all..or they may view other positions as bigger areas of need.

And the only thing running away from you are common sense, intelligence and women with a pulse. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, 24fps said:

If Westburg hasn't been traded then he'll start in 2024.  If we can use history as a guide, Elias/Hyde won't start the year with more than two rookies in the field not including Westburg.  I suspect less.  It's in the Orioles' interest to thin out the logjam, no question.

I think it's a mistake to discount Ortiz too much, but "show me" is a tried and true internet argument if nothing else.  Colson Montgomery looks like a keeper so maybe Ortiz is redundant?  There's always Kyle Stowers.

Correct. I keep forgetting about Montgomery but maybe Ortiz at second would be their preference.

The guy I could see them wanting the most is Westburg. We haven’t really talked much about him in a deal for Cease but Westburg has proven more on the ML level, has more power upside and is an athletic guy.  Again, that’s if they want a MIer at all.

Or they could want Westburg for third, with Moncada really struggling the last few years.

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Chicago White Sox]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Did you?  The trade was Giolito and Lopez for two prospects.  Quero I see was ranked 89 by BP, unranked by BA and MLB.com.  Bush was unranked.  Those are pre-2023 rankings, but I guess Quero seems to be moving up?  In any event it wasn’t just Giolito who got traded there.

BTW, I’m curious about your take on Giolito.  I sort of like him as a reclamation project.  
 

Quero ranked 70th on BA’s mid-season list (the most relevant one IMO).  He’s ranked 81st on MLB.con right now.  He’s also super high on Fangraphs “The Board” although I’m not sure the status of their list in all honesty (although I know they were high on Quero at time of the trade).  

And you’re right, it wasn’t just Giolito, but he was the main player going back to the Angels.  They also got Reynaldo Lopez and I typically view the trade as Giolito for Quero and Lopez for Bush.  In all honesty that might selling Giolito a little light as Bush was their #2/#3 prospect at the time (bad system I know, but still a 45 FV guy).

Giolito is a super likable dude and highly talented, but he’s the type who can have his mechanics go out of whack suddenly and be a mess for a couple months.  He also was massively impacted by the spider tac ban, which is evident by the sizable drop in his spin rates immediately after it went into the effect.  Once that happened, it made it easier for hitters to tee up on his change up which was big weapon for him.  

Again, the Sox are a terrible org and it’s possible a more modern one can tweaks some things and get him back into #3 starter territory.  But my guess is he won’t be a cheap reclamation project as MLBTR estimates he’ll get around 2/$44M.  And I just don’t think he’ll ever return to TOR starter status and I’d probably look at other options if I were a contender.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 hours ago, interloper said:

3.50-4 is basically Dean Kremer, so I kind of agree with @dystopia. I'd love to have Cease come and be a better version of Dean Kremer, but Chicago can go kick rocks if they're asking for Ortiz and Cowser. 

This ERA stuff is really getting out of hand if we’re comparing Dylan Cease to Dean Kramer.  Cease had more fWAR in his “down” 2023 season than Kramer has had in his entire career.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

To answer your question - I wouldn't mind parting with Ortiz and Cowser if it meant we could land Cease. Now if there is a better pitcher available by trade that you know of, I'm all ears to that possibility as well.

I just think Cease does more for our 2024 team and maybe 2025 team (barring injury) than holding on to Ortiz and Cowser. IMO - there's no place on our roster to get max value out of either player.

IMO we need to be exploring every avenue in order to improve our team (given the HUGE subtraction of Bautista) if we have serious WS aspirations. While Cease come with risk, unless we can find better talent on the trade market or are willing to pay real impact pitchers (which we have not been up until this point); it's a risk to hold and do little to nothing to improve. We have Adley for 4 more years and Gunnar for 5. Until the org (through actions) shows its willing to pony up, this window is likely what we are looking at to seriously pursue championship(s).

Great post.  Windows never last as long as you think they will.  The 2020 White Sox looked like they were going to become a behemoth on the backs of a massive group of highly rated prospects in Moncada, Robert, Jimenez, Anderson, Vaughn, Madrigal, Giolito, Cease, Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Dunning, etc.  These guys were all top 100 prospects, with the majority of them eventually landing in the top 20 or 30 of national rankings and several in the top 5 or 10.  We also had an in his prime Jose Abreu, a quality offensive catcher in Yasmani Grandal, and eventually Lance Lynn and Liam Hendriks.  That window lasted one more year before collapsing.  The talent was there, but guys were underperforming while others got hurt.  And then many of the vets started to age out.

While many other things went wrong (poor payroll allocation, the hiring of La Russa, generally shitty front office / org), the fact is our window was over before we knew it and no Sox fans saw it coming.  By no means am I suggesting doing something reckless, but you got to take your shots when you have them.  That’s even more important when you play in the AL East where the competition outside of the Rays can quickly spend their way back to the top.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Great post.  Windows never last as long as you think they will.  The 2020 White Sox looked like they were going to become a behemoth on the backs of a massive group of highly rated prospects in Moncada, Robert, Jimenez, Anderson, Vaughn, Madrigal, Giolito, Cease, Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Dunning, etc.  These guys were all top 100 prospects, with the majority of them eventually landing in the top 20 or 30 of national rankings and several in the top 5 or 10.  We also had an in his prime Jose Abreu, a quality offensive catcher in Yasmani Grandal, and eventually Lance Lynn and Liam Hendriks.  That window lasted one more year before collapsing.  The talent was there, but guys were underperforming while others got hurt.  And then many of the vets started to age out.

While many other things went wrong (poor payroll allocation, the hiring of La Russa, generally shitty front office / org), the fact is our window was over before we knew it and no Sox fans saw it coming.  By no means am I suggesting doing something reckless, but you got to take your shots when you have them.  That’s even more important when you play in the AL East where the competition outside of the Rays can quickly spend their way back to the top.

Agree with all of this.

Of course, we have people plenty of fans who think we could just go to ST with what we have and the playoffs are inevitable.

Its foolish thinking but it’s the thought of some nonetheless (and not just here either, I mean all over Os social media).

[Chicago White Sox]

10 hours ago, dystopia said:

It's very unlikely he'll have a season like that again. When people talk about "ceiling" it's usually just wishcasting. He had a very low BABIP that year, which is necessary to have that kind of ERA while leading the league in walks (see Blake Snell). Yes, it's technically *possible* that he could put up a 2.50 ERA in the next 2 years. It's also technically possible I could end up married to Victoria Justice. 

Both are highly improbable.

Why is it highly improbable?  His xERA that season was 2.70 and the elite stuff is still there.  If he could do it over 32 starts just a year ago, I’m not sure why it seems far-fetched he could do it again.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

White Sox signed DeJong to a ML contract today. I guess that means Lopez and DeJong is their starting MI?

That certainly goes with the idea of wanting to improve the defense. 
 

I’m guessing they wouldn’t let that stop them from trading for Ortiz but maybe it’s not as an immediate need and they would want something different?  Can’t imagine that would be the case though.

DeJong & Lopez are just cheap vets who can buy some time for Montgomery and the fringe middle infield prospects we have in Sosa & Rodriguez.  The reality is we need everything and with a focus on 2025 & 2026 more so than anything.  I do expect Getz to place a much greater emphasis on defense than our previous regime, but power remains king at our park.