Cease vs everyone else

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

CHI can have one of Kjerstad, Cowser, or Ortiz and then another guy in 10-14 range.  Prospects do bust, but you get your choice of some pretty primo ones so don't be stupid and make a good choice.

Or go and make a deal with somebody else, but I bet you can't get a better prospect than one of those three from anybody else.

I’m highly confident we’ll get a better headliner than Ortiz.  And even if we can’t get a better prospect than one of Cowser or Kjerstad, I think we can get a better overall package if the second piece fron the Orioles is a guy in the 10 to 14 range.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, top 100 guys can be very overrated.  Top 10 prospects are also not created equal. The Orioles have 15-20 guys would make a lot of teams top 10 and probably 7-12 players that would make a lot of top 5s. This is why you guys(or any team) dealing with us is your best case scenario.

Secondly, you talk about us acting like our prospects are sure things (which literally zero people are doing) yet you want us to believe that we should ignore everything prior to 2022 because of a pitch. You act like it’s a sure thing that Cease won’t be the bust even though there are signs he could get worse. Cease is certainly more of a sure thing than any player likely to be traded for him but he’s also gone in 2 years and will carry larger salaries, where as you stand to get 2-4 players with all of their service time and cheap salaries ahead.  In terms of surplus value, you guys figure to have way more upside with that long term than the Os.

Of course, we can’t keep and play everyone and this team needs to win now, so you give that up for what you hope is a big upgrade.

Im going to go back to the list of teams I said are likely to be in the hunt for him…what are they going to give up that is what you are looking for?  To me, this is what the conversation really is about. What are these teams willing to give up? 

What do you want from St Louis? Or Cinci? Or the Dodgers? Or Boston? Or the Yankees? Or Houston?

There are other teams that could provide us fair value.  I just have a bias towards positional prospects and really like Mayo & Kjerstad, which is why I’m spending a lot of time here and not on some Dodgers board.  However, there are definitely other teams on top of some of the ones you named like the Cubs, Padres, & Braves who have the pieces needed to land him and will to win next year.

My guess is if it’s not you guys, it will be the Dodgers or Cardinals.  The former have a ton of pitching prospects that Getz could be into (Sheehan, Frasso, Stone, etc.) on top of positional guys like Busch or Pages.  The Cardinals are desperate for SP and have a strong mix of major league & minor leagues assets that Getz might have interest in (I’d expect Tink Hence ti be a key piece).  The Red Sox are a dark horse as they have a couple high end guys in Mayer or Anthony that could headline a trade if they really want to go for it next year.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Ortiz could start at any IF position besides first next year. Lots of factors will determine that.

Cowser and Kjerstad can easily both start on the OD roster and get 400+ at bats in their first full seasons.

Why are you ignoring Cease’s control issues? He throws strikes at a below league average rate and his BB rate is high.  His velo was down and his statcast numbers weren’t all that great in 2023.

This is all to say that acting as if people are “simply looking at ERA” is rather foolish. There is more to it than that.   

Cease is not some can’t miss guy and isn’t even the best pitcher available in trade and teams that want to spend money can get similar or better for just cash. 
 

If the market dictates that they should get Cowser, so be it. I’m ok with that.  But again, who is giving up a top 25ish prospect and more for Cease? 

The market just dictated a guy who is two years older coming off a somewhat similar season get 7/$172M.  Very few teams can afford that kind of commitment and there are very few TOR starters available for just money.  As such, many teams will have to shift to the trade market if they want impactful pitching.

As for Cease’s walk rate, that’s offset by an elite K rate.  Doesn’t mean it isn’t an issue, but he was the runner up Cy Young winner in 2022 despite a high BB rate.

I assume you feel that Bradish had a really good season last year?

[24fps]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There are other teams that could provide us fair value.  I just have a bias towards positional prospects and really like Mayo & Kjerstad, which is why I’m spending a lot of time here and not on some Dodgers board.  However, there are definitely other teams on top of some of the ones you named like the Cubs, Padres, & Braves who have the pieces needed to land him and will to win next year.

My guess is if it’s not you guys, it will be the Dodgers or Cardinals.  The former have a ton of pitching prospects that Getz could be into (Sheehan, Frasso, Stone, etc.) on top of positional guys like Busch or Pages.  The Cardinals are desperate for SP and have a strong mix of major league & minor leagues assets that Getz might have interest in (I’d expect Tink Hence ti be a key piece).  The Red Sox are a dark horse as they have a couple high end guys in Mayer or Anthony that could headline a trade if they really want to go for it next year.

I can see the Dodgers being players for Cease but I suspect Winn and Hence for the Cards are as untouchable as Mayo, Holliday and Basallo are for the O's.  If Getz has the judgement to let the market ripen while also not waiting too long, I think he will get the value you are hoping for.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

If Westburg hasn't been traded then he'll start in 2024.  If we can use history as a guide, Elias/Hyde won't start the year with more than two rookies in the field not including Westburg.  I suspect less.  It's in the Orioles' interest to thin out the logjam, no question.

I think it's a mistake to discount Ortiz too much, but "show me" is a tried and true internet argument if nothing else.  Colson Montgomery looks like a keeper so maybe Ortiz is redundant?  There's always Kyle Stowers.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Ortiz as a prospect, but a prospect’s value starts deteriorating quickly when they hit that 25 / 26 age and haven’t proven anything in the majors.  Elias needs to determine if Ortiz is part of his core and either play him (at the expense of another prospect) or trade him for something else that can help.  I just think it’s wasteful to keep him in AAA so you have contingency plans in the event the prospects ahead of him fail.

[24fps]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Don’t get me wrong, I like Ortiz as a prospect, but a prospect’s value starts deteriorating quickly when they hit that 25 / 26 age and haven’t proven anything in the majors.  Elias needs to determine if Ortiz is part of his core and either play him (at the expense of another prospect) or trade him for something else that can help.  I just think it’s wasteful to keep him in AAA so you have contingency plans in the event the prospects ahead of him fail.

I agree and I believe I read somewhere that this (and finding playing time for the others waiting in line) is what keeps him up at night - every night.

[Chicago White Sox]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Agree with all of this.

Of course, we have people plenty of fans who think we could just go to ST with what we have and the playoffs are inevitable.

It’s foolish thinking but it’s the thought of some nonetheless (and not just here either, I mean all over Os social media).

Fully agree.  Part of our problem was Rick Hahn got complacent.  We had the same several roster problems during our short window (RF, 2B, & pitching depth) and he did very little to address them.  And that become highly problematic when the core started underperforming.  I always look at the Phillies who kicked off their rebuild at a similar time and had many key prospects bust, but they kept adding in free agency and trade to supplement the roster and have more than overcome those early-on shortcomings.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I agree and I believe I read somewhere that this (and finding playing time for the others waiting in line) is what keeps him up at night - every night.

It’s a great problem to have, but it’s where self scouting comes into play.  If I’m Elias, I look at Cowser & Kjerstad and say who am more confident will become an impactful major league and then do the same thing with Ortiz & Westburg.  Take the two you don’t believe in as much and trade them for something that can help you know.  You have other prospects behind them who can fill the role of safety is one of the guys you believe ultimately disappoints.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m highly confident we’ll get a better headliner than Ortiz.  And even if we can’t get a better prospect than one of Cowser or Kjerstad, I think we can get a better overall package if the second piece fron the Orioles is a guy in the 10 to 14 range.

Then I'd say good luck and let's revisit this in the fullness of time.

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There are other teams that could provide us fair value.  I just have a bias towards positional prospects and really like Mayo & Kjerstad, which is why I’m spending a lot of time here and not on some Dodgers board.  However, there are definitely other teams on top of some of the ones you named like the Cubs, Padres, & Braves who have the pieces needed to land him and will to win next year.

My guess is if it’s not you guys, it will be the Dodgers or Cardinals.  The former have a ton of pitching prospects that Getz could be into (Sheehan, Frasso, Stone, etc.) on top of positional guys like Busch or Pages.  The Cardinals are desperate for SP and have a strong mix of major league & minor leagues assets that Getz might have interest in (I’d expect Tink Hence ti be a key piece).  The Red Sox are a dark horse as they have a couple high end guys in Mayer or Anthony that could headline a trade if they really want to go for it next year.

You aren’t getting Mayo for sure. That’s a nonstarter.

The Red Sox are the one team I see as potentially being dumb enough and desperate enough that you could land Mayer.  That’s definitely one I would be working on.  OTOH, the Red Sox can basically buy what they want, which is probably what they should do.

I tend to doubt they trade Mayer but would I say they are the one team likely in this race that could be dumb.

Otherwise, it looks like you are talking about a prospect that is more in the top 50…and that’s the same area Ortiz is in. Whether a guy is 44, 50 or 65, they are all very close. There is so little that separates them and let’s face it, those lists are more for discussion than anything else. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The market just dictated a guy who is two years older coming off a somewhat similar season get 7/$172M.  Very few teams can afford that kind of commitment and there are very few TOR starters available for just money.  As such, many teams will have to shift to the trade market if they want impactful pitching.

As for Cease’s walk rate, that’s offset by an elite K rate.  Doesn’t mean it isn’t an issue, but he was the runner up Cy Young winner in 2022 despite a high BB rate.

I assume you feel that Bradish had a really good season last year?

Yes but I don’t buy into Bradish as much as the rest of the board does.  Now, he has had really had a good 1.5 seasons, so that’s encouraging but I want to see him do it again before I’m fully in on him.

[waroriole]

7 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is it highly improbable?  His xERA that season was 2.70 and the elite stuff is still there.  If he could do it over 32 starts just a year ago, I’m not sure why it seems far-fetched he could do it again.

Because he has never done it in any other season. And 2022 had a very low BABIP. His slider from 2022 hasn’t been duplicated in any other season either.  He’s a guy I’d trade for to see if I could fix him, but that isn’t his price right now. 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is it highly improbable?  His xERA that season was 2.70 and the elite stuff is still there.  If he could do it over 32 starts just a year ago, I’m not sure why it seems far-fetched he could do it again.

It’s not about what he can do, it’s about what is his most likely outcome and his most likely outcome is that he is a 3.7ish ERA guy. 
 

 

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Because ERA doesn’t really matter.  Go look at xERA which accounts for quality of contact and you can see how close he and Bradish were last year.  I imagine Cease’s ERA pitching behind a quality defense would look considerably better despite his high walk rate (which he also had in 2022).

We can agree to disagree. I’ve also looked at the XFIP. But, results do matter. He has great stuff I agree with you but the results need to be there are well. How much better was their defense the year before. I’m guessing it was pretty similar but I’m not going to waste my time. I don’t blame you/them for wanting to extract every last nickel of value. We/Elias don’t mind paying fair value but don’t want to overpay. 

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Where does Ortiz slot into your roster next year?  Reserve infielder or will he open up at AAA?  Same thing with Cowser?  If a stating OF spot were to open up, does he get that opportunity over Kjerstad?  Just trying to understand how these guys are likely to be greater contributors to the 2024 Orioles than Dylan Cease would be.

And very little risk from the White Sox’s perspective?  Ortiz will be 26 next year and hasn’t proven anything in the majors and Cowser was awful in his cup of coffee.  As usual, the risk sits with the prospects who bust at incredibly high rates vs. the SP who has made 90 starts over the past three seasons while also posting the 8th highest fWAR and fourth highest Stuff+.  But again, if you simply look at ERA and ignore the god awful defense he played behind, you probably won’t like him much.

Why does it matter where he slots. Just because you have assets doesn’t mean you have to take a risk or gamble that you don’t think is a good one. I’m hung up on the limited control on a guy we won’t resign without a new owner. I’d be looking to trade my chips for a guy with more control. Plus as I’ve stated already, he’s a mid 4 era guy other than his year two seasons ago.