Cease vs everyone else

[ChicagoTerp]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't think Cowser's lost much value.

I'm willing to give up Cowser.  But as a second piece it should be more like Norby, or Stowers- the thing I know I don't need.

I would prefer that too. Just think we may need to outbid some teams in these trades, given the cost of FA starters nowadays.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, ChicagoTerp said:

I would prefer that too. Just think we may need to outbid some teams in these trades, given the cost of FA starters nowadays.

Who are these other packages?  We broke down a Braves one the other day, and for the life of me, Cowser and Ortiz, is way better.

We don't have to bid against ourselves.

Very few teams are even in a position to offer two top 100 prospects for Dylan Cease.  We don't need to be stupid.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Pickles

[ChicagoTerp]

Just now, Pickles said:

Who are these other packages?  We broke down a Braves one the other day, and for the life of me, Cowser and Norby, solidly beat that.

We don't have to bid against ourselves.

Very few teams are even in a position to offer two top 100 prospects for Dylan Cease.  We don't need to be stupid.

Tough to speculate. I guess we'll see. History tells me he will get dealt to the Dodgers for an underwhelming package that I would have happily beaten. But who knows, maybe I'll be surprised.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, ChicagoTerp said:

It's a lot to give up, but we've got depth at those positions. Neither Cowser nor Cease are as valuable as they were a year ago. So both may benefit from a change of scenery.

Cease has lost value…Cowser really hasn’t.

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What makes them fascinating: Baltimore already vanquished the AL East. But with Tampa Bay still competitive, Toronto wanting to improve, New York vowing changes and Boston bringing in a new chief baseball officer, the best division in baseball looks like it's going to get even better. So for as good as Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez were in the second half, and for the full year of John Means they expect to get, the Orioles can't rest on their laurels. They want a frontline starter -- and in fact were interested in Aaron Nola, sources said. If Baltimore decides it's disinclined to spend in free agency, their infield glut offers plenty of trade opportunities. To be clear, neither shortstop Gunnar Henderson nor the best prospect in baseball, shortstop Jackson Holliday, is going anywhere. Beyond them, the Orioles have plenty of others with value: prospects Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby and Joey Ortiz, and veterans Ryan Mountcastle, Ramon Urías, Jorge Mateo and Ryan O'Hearn. The Orioles could trade right-fielder Anthony Santander, who's set to make around $12 million in arbitration, and go with an Austin Hays-Cedric Mullins-Colton Cowser/Heston Kjerstad outfield. Baltimore is so deep, and so entrenched in the middle of a window of success, that getting a pitcher with multiple years of control is the move.

The perfect transaction: Acquire right-hander Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox.
 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/38986551/mlb-free-agency-teams-watch-yankees-mets-padres
 

Jeff Passan article.

Yet another national writer mentioning some of the ML players.  No idea if they will be in a deal but it’s not uncommon to see a ML Piece in a deal like this.

Passan is on the money here.  Cease is literally the perfect addition for the O’s.  I really hope Elias pulls the trigger, because I don’t think there is another piece readily available via trade that could have the impact for you guys outside of someone like Juan Soto.

[emmett16]

One thing that I havnt seen mentioned much about Cease is that he’s lead the league in games started 2 of the last 3 years.  The more and more I think about it, he’s very likely to be the guy they want to bring in.  When’s the last time we had a SP with 200+ Ks in a season.  

[OriolesMagic83]

17 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Who are these other packages?  We broke down a Braves one the other day, and for the life of me, Cowser and Ortiz, is way better.

We don't have to bid against ourselves.

Very few teams are even in a position to offer two top 100 prospects for Dylan Cease.  We don't need to be stupid.

I think it will take a top 50 and a top 100 prospect in a package to get Cease.  For a lot of the lower ranked farm systems, that would be "trading the farm".  I just don't believe the idea that Cease will command a Sale type package or anything close to it.  Just reread an article on the Sale trade and Sale was top 6 in Cy Young voting for 5 straight years before the trade.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't think Cowser's lost much value.

I'm willing to give up Cowser.  But as a second piece it should be more like Norby, or Stowers- the thing I know I don't need.

We don’t need Ortiz.  I’d love to keep him.  We have Westburg, Henderson and Holliday to play 2B/SS/3B in the long term.  We have Mateo and Urias for the now.  We have Mayo who may be able to stick at 3B.  Ortiz is very much a luxury item for us.  I’d actually say Cowser is closer to being a necessity, with all 3 starting outfielders coming up for free agency in 1-2 years.

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Who are these other packages?  We broke down a Braves one the other day, and for the life of me, Cowser and Ortiz, is way better.

We don't have to bid against ourselves.

Very few teams are even in a position to offer two top 100 prospects for Dylan Cease.  We don't need to be stupid.

You broke down a made up theoretical fan proposal involving the Braves.  The reality is none of us are going to know packages until something is about to happen, but we already have precedent on what pitchers like Cease with multiple years of control cost.  You may not like that price, but I’d be shocked if the Sox didn’t get two top 100 prospects in this market for Cease with one legit 55 / 55+ FV type headlining.

And plenty of teams could offer two top 100 type prospects.  Theoretically every team should have three or four.  Hell, the Braves have what us considered a poor system and still have two guys generally considered top 100.

And a trade is not limited to prospects.  I’m not sure how I’d feel about Grissom, but he still has five years of control left, is 2 1/2 years young than Ortiz, and has accomplished more in the majors.  Young major league pieces with extended control are still valuable to a rebuilding club.

[Sports Guy]

You absolutely do not let Cease go by because of Joey Ortiz. Any thought of that is incredibly absurd and non sensical…and I really like Ortiz and would be happy with him as an everyday player.

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Passan is on the money here.  Cease is literally the perfect addition for the O’s.  I really hope Elias pulls the trigger, because I don’t think there is another piece readily available via trade that could have the impact for you guys outside of someone like Juan Soto.

Its nice to see an observer comment neutrally on Soto as a fit here without the "Angelos, never" automatic negative thought.

I think its an interesting thought exercise if the same trade package could get 1 year of Soto or 2 years of Cease which would better serve the championship odds of the 2024-2025 Orioles.      The 2025 Orioles MOO bats options may have a nice edge on 2024 with growth from Holliday-Mayo-Basallo.      The 2024 ZiPS still have 125-ish OPS+'s from Adley/Gunnar as the team leaders. 

Same as last year one of the world's greatest talents will play their walk year for about ~1/30, no long term commitment.     Guaranteed eventual 1st rounder with QO decline, a perk that Dylan Cease is less certain of.

[forphase1]

55 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Just out of curiosity, what do you plan on doing with Cowser & Ortiz?  Are they simply AAA depth to start the year?

Personally I'd have Ortiz starting in the infield with Westburg and Henderson.  I'd trade Santander and have Mullins, Hays, Cowser and Kjerstad rotating around the outfield.  

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Its nice to see an observer comment neutrally on Soto as a fit here without the "Angelos, never" automatic negative thought.

I think its an interesting thought exercise if the same trade package could get 1 year of Soto or 2 years of Cease which would better serve the championship odds of the 2024-2025 Orioles.      The 2025 Orioles MOO bats options may have a nice edge on 2024 with growth from Holliday-Mayo-Basallo.      The 2024 ZiPS still have 125-ish OPS+'s from Adley/Gunnar as the team leaders. 

Same as last year one of the world's greatest talents will play their walk year for about ~1/30, no long term commitment.     Guaranteed eventual 1st rounder with QO decline, a perk that Dylan Cease is less certain of.

Soto would be an incredible addition for you guys, but he won’t come cheap and his salary would basically cap what else you can this off-season (even if an OF goes back in the trade).  The question to me is it better to spread that prospect cost across two seasons or go all in on one?  No right or wrong answer, but you take on much more risk with the one year guy due to the randomness of injury, but the reward would potentially be higher.  It’s an interesting debate and one I wish I could partake in more frequently as a Sox fan…lol.

[OriolesMagic83]

25 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Its nice to see an observer comment neutrally on Soto as a fit here without the "Angelos, never" automatic negative thought.

I think its an interesting thought exercise if the same trade package could get 1 year of Soto or 2 years of Cease which would better serve the championship odds of the 2024-2025 Orioles.      The 2025 Orioles MOO bats options may have a nice edge on 2024 with growth from Holliday-Mayo-Basallo.      The 2024 ZiPS still have 125-ish OPS+'s from Adley/Gunnar as the team leaders. 

Same as last year one of the world's greatest talents will play their walk year for about ~1/30, no long term commitment.     Guaranteed eventual 1st rounder with QO decline, a perk that Dylan Cease is less certain of.

I would rathr have Cease than Soto, especially if they cost the same.  The O's can't hit their way to a championship w/o top pitching.  Also, I believe the new QO compensation tops out at pick after 2nd round.

[24fps]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s a tad more than I’d like to pay, but it’s a price the O’s can afford.  

Affordability is a notion that seems to get lost a lot in this discussion but it also cuts both ways.  Can the O's afford to not move some of their prospects this offseason?  My answer is no, and while nobody wants Elias to get fleeced, I wouldn't let the fear of a (slight) overpay get in the way.  The good news is that because the O's are so deep at the moment affordability shouldn't be an issue - as long as the White Sox want to be rational.