Cease vs everyone else

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I like Cease and would give up a good package for him but I’m not getting my hopes up. Even though we have the farm system for it I just don’t see the Orioles outbidding the Dodgers. And the Braves don’t have a great farm but are probably willing to put a lot of it on the table. 

Maybe the Orioles will be willing to give Ortiz and Cowser, or some equivalent. There’s no reason they shouldn’t make a strong offer. But I expect another team is going to beat that and the Orioles will keep looking.

Do you think he’s better than Burnes?

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It said Elias was in on him and he couldn’t have been naive about the years and dollars it would take. Elias is by all accounts a smart guy. You don’t go to a lot to look at a Ferrari when you can only afford a Toyota Corolla.

also …… Outside his dominant season Cease had ERAs of 3.91, 4.01, and 4.58. 2 of the last 4 years his WHIP has been 1.40+ . Just comparing to Burnes ERAs of between 2.11 and 3.39 the last 4 years and WHIP 0.94-1.06. I’m going with Burnes and offering a big extension. Who doesn’t think that is the better move. Burnes is a rental right now so I’m guessing the asking price could be more reasonable.

Where did it say he was “in on him”?

We saw express interest.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Where did it say he was “in on him”?

We saw express interest.

They were interested… let’s not get nit picky. Elias knew the projections in years and dollars. 
 

He had already turned down $100 million during the season. The estimates were $140 to $170 million.

https://www.si.com/mlb/phillies/news/experts-predict-keeping-aaron-nola-will-cost-philadelphia-phillies-matt9

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/the-free-agent-market-has-been-slow-so-far-but-the-pursuit-of-pitching-is-there

[Billy F-Face3]

I can't believe this topic is still alive with 44 pages and counting for a 4+ ERA player that is owned and coveted by another franchise (aka unavailable).

I politely request Orioles fans obsession over him to.. Cease & desist.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

They were interested… let’s not get nit picky. Elias knew the projections in years and dollars. 
 

He had already turned down $100 million during the season. The estimates were $140 to $170 million.

https://www.si.com/mlb/phillies/news/experts-predict-keeping-aaron-nola-will-cost-philadelphia-phillies-matt9

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/the-free-agent-market-has-been-slow-so-far-but-the-pursuit-of-pitching-is-there

It’s not nitpicky to represent the point properly.

Saying they were in on him says they were deeper into discussions and even had an offer out to him.

[24fps]

50 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I like Cease and would give up a good package for him but I’m not getting my hopes up. Even though we have the farm system for it I just don’t see the Orioles outbidding the Dodgers. And the Braves don’t have a great farm but are probably willing to put a lot of it on the table. 

Maybe the Orioles will be willing to give Ortiz and Cowser, or some equivalent. There’s no reason they shouldn’t make a strong offer. But I expect another team is going to beat that and the Orioles will keep looking.

If you are correct - and I don't think that you are - then the rumor that Elias is a "prospect hugger" must be true after all.  No team that I can see has more prospect capital available or fewer truly compelling needs for 2024.

[Roll Tide]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not nitpicky to represent the point properly.

Saying they were in on him says they were deeper into discussions and even had an offer out to him.

Orioles rumors are hard to come bye as you know. The rumor about the Japanese pitcher came out of Japan as a way to stoke other interest. It’s fair to assume if it got out Elias was talking and interested 

[Roll Tide]

Just now, 24fps said:

If you are correct - and I don't think that you are - then the rumor that Elias is a "prospect hugger" must be true after all.  No team that I can see has more prospect capital available or fewer truly compelling needs for 2024.

That’s 2 top 50 prospects…. Not happening imo.

[24fps]

33 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I can't believe this topic is still alive with 44 pages and counting for a 4+ ERA player that is owned and coveted by another franchise (aka unavailable).

I politely request Orioles fans obsession over him to.. Cease & desist.

When a topic devolves to circular semantic quarreling, that's usually a sign that there's at least five more pages to go.

[OriolesMagic83]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not nitpicky to represent the point properly.

Saying they were in on him says they were deeper into discussions and even had an offer out to him.

No one knows what the O's really did unless Elias where to reveal the O's made him an offer and what Nola/his agent's reaction was.  We're just guessing.  Maybe Elias asked if he would consider a 3 year deal, he said no and that was the end of it.

[24fps]

33 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

That’s 2 top 50 prospects…. Not happening imo.

I agree.  It will take that plus a third lesser prospect because I expect there to be competition.  Relatively low-salaried, durable starters with two years of control and demonstrated upside are going to be expensive and in this regard the O's have the resources to make it happen.  And unless the White Sox demand Holliday, Mayo or Basallo as the headliner and won't budge, then it is a price that is eminently affordable.

[Chicago White Sox]

Sounds like a deal is getting closer and closer.  To be honest, I think he probably he gets traded to the Dodgers.  They have a ton of interesting prospects and while I think the Orioles are a better match, I just get the sense Elias is a prospect hugger and won’t outbid the competition.

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sounds like a deal is getting closer and closer.  To be honest, I think he probably he gets traded to the Dodgers.  They have a ton of interesting prospects and while I think the Orioles are a better match, I just get the sense Elias is a prospect hugger and won’t outbid the competition.

I think you’re probably right but as long as he’s hugging the right prospects I don’t take that term as a negative.

[CaptainRedbeard]

12 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Do you think he’s better than Burnes?

For just 2024 I think Burnes is the better pitcher. And that’s not so much of a knock on Cease, as Burnes is still really good. But Cease is a significantly more valuable asset with 2 years of control so I’d give up more for him than Cease.

Burnes is also showing red flags of consistent decline which would be concerning if the intent were to sign one to a mega deal, but that won’t be the intent. He’s still at a high enough level that he should be quite good in 2024. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

11 hours ago, 24fps said:

If you are correct - and I don't think that you are - then the rumor that Elias is a "prospect hugger" must be true after all.  No team that I can see has more prospect capital available or fewer truly compelling needs for 2024.

I don’t necessarily think Elias is a “prospect hugger,” it’s just that being a big market team affects the view of your prospects as well. The Dodgers and Braves can afford to give up  more prospects when they know they can fill more of their MLB roster through FAs / expensive extensions. 

It’s true the Orioles have too many infielder prospects than they can soon play at the MLB level. It would be unreasonable for them to hold on too tightly to all of them. But that’s not the case for their corner bats and outfielders (and especially pitchers). Even with no apparent spot to play both Kjerstad and Cowser in 2024, looking ahead - Santander and O’Hearn are FAs next year, Mullins and Hays the following year, and Mountcastle the next. There’s going to be a lot of holes to fill in the near future. That’s not to say they can’t afford to deal one of the prospects at those positions, just that they’re not backed into a corner where they really should like with the infielders. 

The Dodgers and Braves don’t have to worry about anything like that. They can view their prospects more as fungible capital, and having a lot more available capital between your payroll and prospect capital makes them comparatively more willing to part with it. The Braves in particular have pretty much their entire starting offense locked up long term. Their only use for those prospects behind them is as fodder for trades.