Cease vs everyone else

[Roll Tide]

18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

It didn’t say anything about ceiling. He’s a good defensive SS with “plus plus instincts”. He’s ops’d .925 at AAA over 400 ABs over the past 2 seasons. If his bat plays at .800 OPS he’d be a pretty valuable player. 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Roll Tide

[RZNJ]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

You’re quoting Baseball America as an expert on Ortiz and then disregarding that they have him rated at #63.  What do you base the 80-100 range on?

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It didn’t say anything about ceiling. He’s a good defensive SS with “plus plus instincts”. He’s ops’d .925 at AAA over 400 ABs over the past 2 seasons. If his bat plays at .800 OPS he’d be a pretty valuable player. 

If Ortiz OPS .700 he’d be a valuable player assuming his defense is GG caliber.  An .800 OPS and you’re talking all-star caliber player.  I think that’s possible but I’d be surprised if he’s not a .700 guy based on what he’s done since July 2022.

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

Well, our fearless leader believes his ceiling is first division starting shortstop, but not everyone has that opinion.   What matters is what Getz and Elias think, and who knows what that is.   

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Speaking of things that make us a little nervous.

1.418 WHIP

Declining K rate 3 straight years.

Increasing walk rate 3 straight years.

1 mph lost on fastball in 2023.

Numbers can be spun any way.  Here let me try:

• 8th in fWAR from 2021 to 2023
• 5th in Stuff+ from 2021 to 2023
• 4th in K/9 from 2021 to 2023
• 1st in starts from 2021 to 2023
• AL Cy Young runner-up in 2022
• 10th in average velocity despite 1 MPH decline
• xERA only 0.25 points worse than “TOR starter” Bradish despite down season

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

I think you are off on his upside.  He’s a 3-4 WAR upside guy. His defense alone will probably be worth 2ish WAR.

I also think he’s more of a 70-100 range guy because of his age but I also think many guys ahead of him who are ranked high because of age are more likely to fail and be nothing at the ML level than him.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Chicago White Sox]

58 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I saw someone in that thread say he is legit but who knows.

He broke the Lynn trade a few years ago, but unfortunately many of these internet “insiders” get one random piece of info and then try to parlay it into a long-term thing for reasons unknown (attention?) despite not having repeatable source.  Again, I don’t really buy what he says anymore, just posted it to drive some friendly discussion here.  Not sure why that offended the same people posting garbage rumors that serve their cause.

[MarCakes21]

43 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You don’t trade Kremer and Kjerstad isn’t a great idea if they are planning to move the guys like Hays and Santander before free agency 

If I got 5 years of my number 3 in return, plus I believe in Cowser/Mayo + Beavers/Fabian to fill those roles you do.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Numbers can be spun any way.  Here let me try:

• 8th in fWAR from 2021 to 2023
• 5th in Stuff+ from 2021 to 2023
• 4th in K/9 from 2021 to 2023
• 1st in starts from 2021 to 2023
• AL Cy Young runner-up in 2022
• 10th in average velocity despite 1 MPH decline
• xERA only 0.25 points worse than “TOR starter” Bradish despite down season

I’m not trying to spin anything.  You took a glowing report on Ortiz and focused on one line and said it made you nervous.  There are certainly things we can find about Cease that make me nervous.  
 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

35 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It didn’t say anything about ceiling. He’s a good defensive SS with “plus plus instincts”. He’s ops’d .925 at AAA over 400 ABs over the past 2 seasons. If his bat plays at .800 OPS he’d be a pretty valuable player. 

You think he’s going to put up a .800 OPS?  There were six qualified SS’s last year that exceeded that figure.  Quite the lofty expectation for a guy with below average power.

[24fps]

39 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If the ceiling is everyday shortstop but second division regular that’s not super valuable given the very real fact he could bust altogether.  Again, I like him as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a top 50 guy and more in the 80 to 100 range.  Just my opinion and apparently not a popular one here.

MLB's latest prospect rankings have Ortiz at exactly 50 and Fangraphs had him at 66 before last season when he did really well at AAA.  He's now had about 500 PA's in AAA (2022-2023) and his line is in the neighborhood of .330/.385/.530/.915.  That's not bad especially with an age difference of -2 years compared to his peers.  I would be surprised if he's below 50 in any credible ranking system by the time the 2024 season begins.

We're still talking about Ortiz as the second piece in a Cease trade right?

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You’re quoting Baseball America as an expert on Ortiz and then disregarding that they have him rated at #63.  What do you base the 80-100 range on?

I discount his value because of his age & lack of ceiling (my personal view) and I don’t believe he will still be at #63 when BA’s pre-season rankings are issued.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I discount his value because of his age & lack of ceiling (my personal view) and I don’t believe he will still be at #63 when BA’s pre-season rankings are issued.

Got it.  You like to go with BA when it suits your purposes but with your own personal view when it doesn’t.   Their last updated list was in September.  Hard to see what happened between September and February that is going to drop him 20 spots but I guess we’ll see.  MLB pipeline has him at #50.   
 

Keith Law had him at #36 on 7/31/23 when he did a top 60.  
 

Aram Leighton of justbaseball in October had him at #43.

Edited December 2, 2023 by RZNJ

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, our fearless leader believes his ceiling is first division starting shortstop, but not everyone has that opinion.   What matters is what Getz and Elias think, and who knows what that is.   

Fully agree.  I see Ortiz as a guy who is probably somewhat divisive in terms of front office evaluation.  I’m sure we all agree he’s a quality prospect, but I’ve read differing scouting reports on what his offensive ceiling really is.  And I just don’t buy that he’s a guy who could put up .800 OPS’s in the majors.  Maybe he proves me wrong, but I still maintain a more realistic ceiling is league average hitter.  And with his glove that’s valuable…if that outcome actually happens.  Again, he could end being a plus glove 70 wRC+ hitter and be someone you are constantly looking to upgrade from.  That’s the risk vs. reward dilemma that comes with prospects and why they aren’t worth as much as many fans realize.

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are off on his upside.  He’s a 3-4 WAR upside guy. His defense alone will probably be worth 2ish WAR.

I also think he’s more of a 70-100 range guy because of his age but I also think many guys ahead of him who are ranked high because of age are more likely to fail and be nothing at the ML level than him.

Ezequiel Tovar was one of the better defensive SS’s last year and was only worth 1.6 wins because of a 70 wRC+.  Is Joey Ortiz really expected to be a top 3 three defensive SS?  A win floor from defense alone is pretty massive.