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Cease vs everyone else

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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

I'm just catching up on this but we know how Elias and company share information outside of their inner circle. They don't. We've heard from players many times say they don't hear from the Orioles abo

btdart20
btdart20
Spy Fox
Spy Fox

@Sports Guyis so prolific, he's the #3 poster on the Soxtalk thread despite joining on page 102 of 149. He's also the #1 poster in this thread, so potentially on track to be the #1 poster on both team

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

Isn’t the value of WAR ~$8MM this year?  At 3.0 WAR he was worth $24MM this year.  I think he has just about hit his ceiling, but I could see him bumping up to a 3.5 WAR player the next couple of years. 

That's a rough approximation but you don't want to build a roster around the concept.

I don't feel confident he'd turn it down and I don't think it would be a smart use of limited money.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Is there something that prevents a bigger guy from playing center?  Heck, Judge played a lot of CF at 6'7"/ 280ish last year.  A lot of bigger guys have played center field, Dave Winfield, Mike Trout and Byron Buxton come to mind immediately.  Buxton isn't playing center now because of his repeated injuries not because of his ability.

Usually it’s lack of speed that prevents it.  Average for CF among the 33 CF with 100+ sprint opportunities is about 28.6 ft/sec.  Even Mullins at 28.0 was a bit below average.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/sprint_speed?min_season=2023&max_season=2023&position=8&team=&min=100

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Isn’t the value of WAR ~$8MM this year?  At 3.0 WAR he was worth $24MM this year.  I think he has just about hit his ceiling, but I could see him bumping up to a 3.5 WAR player the next couple of years. 

The average peak for a player is at 26-28.  Obviously there are plenty of exceptions.   But, if you are signing Santander, the odds of a decline from 3.0 are higher than that he’ll bump up from there.  

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emmett16 Hangout Grand Counsel

emmett16

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's a rough approximation but you don't want to build a roster around the concept.

I don't feel confident he'd turn it down and I don't think it would be a smart use of limited money.

 

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The average peak for a player is at 26-28.  Obviously there are plenty of exceptions.   But, if you are signing Santander, the odds of a decline from 3.0 are higher than that he’ll bump up from there.  

That makes sense.  I just have this sneaking suspicion he’s a guy they don’t want to trade.  It’s hard to see them just letting him walk after the season.  Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By the way, this thread really is “Cease vs. everybody else.”   Emphasis on “everybody else.”  How does Santander’s FA value get here?

Santa is relevant as are all the COF options if we trade Cowser. We’re thin at rangy LF options for OPACY if Cowser goes. Brings up the question is Cease really worth it?  

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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51 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Is there something that prevents a bigger guy from playing center?  Heck, Judge played a lot of CF at 6'7"/ 280ish last year.  A lot of bigger guys have played center field, Dave Winfield, Mike Trout and Byron Buxton come to mind immediately.  Buxton isn't playing center now because of his repeated injuries not because of his ability.

The Yankees weren't very good last year. I think part of that is because they didn't have a good mix of guys who could hit and play great defense. Obviously, injuries were a big part too.

I only mention this because I think Elias has been deliberate in his attempts to build around athletic guys. We don't have a lot of statues in this organization. 

And would Cease really want a below average outfield behind him? This is my attempt to make this about Cease. :) 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The Yankees weren't very good last year. I think part of that is because they didn't have a good mix of guys who could hit and play great defense. Obviously, injuries were a big part too.

I only mention this because I think Elias has been deliberate in his attempts to build around athletic guys. We don't have a lot of statues in this organization. 

And would Cease really want a below average outfield behind him? This is my attempt to make this about Cease. :) 

I do agree with this, but you’re right that injuries played a big role too.  Let’s not forget that the Yankees won 99 games in 2022.  

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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35 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Isn’t the value of WAR ~$8MM this year?  At 3.0 WAR he was worth $24MM this year.  I think he has just about hit his ceiling, but I could see him bumping up to a 3.5 WAR player the next couple of years. 

The dollar value of WAR has been around $8 million for as long as I can remember.  In the case of the Orioles I think it's probably safer and more relevant to look at the actual dollar value of a contract as a percentage of total active payroll.  I think that's especially true when Santander's replacement (Kjerstad or Cowser) is going to cost less than 5% of his projected arb raise and has a good chance of performing almost as well.

Santander is a good, solid player with perhaps a little more in the tank, and if he's on the 2024 team I will be happy.  But I also think his trade value is close to its peak now and with at least two replacements looking for playing time, it's also a justifiable time to move him.  Keeping him and expecting to cash in on a QO being declined however, is not the sort of gamble you would expect from a team with a director of analytics that use to deal blackjack.

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