Cease vs everyone else

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You’d give up Kjerstad, Ortiz  plus? I’m glad you’re not the GM. If Elias offered that deal it would’ve been completed by now. 

I’d like for Elias to try to get him for less.  But at the end of the day that’s what I’d be willing to give up.  

[HakunaSakata]

53 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Wait till they get a load of SG

The real question is what will his alias username be on the Sox message board. I vote for JortsGuy69. 

[24fps]

4 hours ago, Ripken said:

ChiSox59 said:  Kjerstad, Ortiz, Povich and Beavers is my ask and I am not budging. 

 

As an early ask by the White Sox (assuming they already understand no Holliday, Mayo, Basallo), I would be expecting something like this.  It's more than I would ultimately agree to, so if they're not budging then I would have to walk away, but I don't think it's an unreasonable position and I wouldn't be surprised if Elias has to give up Kjerstad, Ortiz and two other lesser pieces to close the deal.  I think two years of a young, controllable, proven starter with demonstrated upside is simply going to be more expensive than O's fans are going like, but there is/will be enough competition to make it necessary.

[dystopia]

7 minutes ago, 24fps said:

As an early ask by the White Sox (assuming they already understand no Holliday, Mayo, Basallo), I would be expecting something like this.  It's more than I would ultimately agree to, so if they're not budging then I would have to walk away, but I don't think it's an unreasonable position and I wouldn't be surprised if Elias has to give up Kjerstad, Ortiz and two other lesser pieces to close the deal.  I think two years of a young, controllable, proven starter with demonstrated upside is simply going to be more expensive than O's fans are going like, but there is/will be enough competition to make it necessary.

This is really stretching things. "Young" = 28. "Controllable" = 2 years under contract. "Proven starter" = solid starter, not necessarily an ace. 

[24fps]

37 minutes ago, dystopia said:

This is really stretching things. "Young" = 28. "Controllable" = 2 years under contract. "Proven starter" = solid starter, not necessarily an ace. 

I agree he's not an ace but I didn't imply that he was.  I also think that 97 starts with 526.2 innings pitched over the last three seasons to a cumulative 121 ERA+ proves plenty about both quality and durability.

I don't think demanding a return based 2022 Cease is going to fly - for the O's or any other team, but the narrative you scoff at is eminently sellable by the White Sox GM exactly as described and on that part he shouldn't budge. 

[Number5]

7 minutes ago, 24fps said:

the last three seasons to a cumulative 121 ERA+

This figure is incredibly dependent on the one career season.  There is no reason to expect a 121 ERA+.  He's only done that once, albeit that one time was way above that figure.  I think it is fair to hope that a repeat of last year's 97 ERA+ isn't the most likely result, but expecting more than the 112 ERA+ of 2021 doesn't seem wise to me.

[24fps]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

This figure is incredibly dependent on the one career season.  There is no reason to expect a 121 ERA+.  He's only done that once, albeit that one time was way above that figure.  I think it is fair to hope that a repeat of last year's 97 ERA+ isn't the most likely result, but expecting more than the 112 ERA+ of 2021 doesn't seem wise to me.

I think that would be the minimum expectation for the trade to make sense in the first place for the O's.  We are all assuming that Elias is in on Cease, but if he doesn't believe he can squeeze a solid two years out of him, then that might not be the case.  It sure looks like a great match from the outside though, with an acceptable amount of risk.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

I think that would be the minimum expectation for the trade to make sense in the first place for the O's.  We are all assuming that Elias is in on Cease, but if he doesn't believe he can squeeze a solid two years out of him, then that might not be the case.  It sure looks like a great match from the outside though, with an acceptable amount of risk.

121 ERA+?

[HakunaSakata]

6 hours ago, Ripken said:

ChiSox59 said:  Kjerstad, Ortiz, Povich and Beavers is my ask and I am not budging. 

The thing I don’t like about this is there’s a decent chance Kjerstad turns into a LH Eloy and Ortiz turns into Jose Iglesias. I do like Povich and Beavers as secondary pieces though but I’m just not a fan of the two headliners.

Maybe I'm in the minority, but if this is the asking price I think I'd actually prefer to trade Westerg/Cowser more than Ortiz/Kjerstad. 

[24fps]

7 minutes ago, Number5 said:

121 ERA+?

No. 112 ERA+ minimum and hopefully more, of course.  I remain convinced that Cease is going to be more expensive than a "balanced" trade would dictate in terms of prospects. His durability and relatively low payroll hit are great but only go so far. 

[Number5]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s been pretty clear from your posts in this thread that you have a lower opinion of Cease than I do.  That’s fine, you are entitled to your opinion.  I would not give up Holliday, Mayo or Basallo to get him but I’d be willing to part with Cowser or Kjerstad plus Ortiz, and maybe a third piece a bit further down our list if necessary.

Don't you think we could get Valdez for that?  Wouldn't you rather we do that?

[Pickles]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I have put in a request to join in on that site and it’s been in for over a week. I’m not sure it’s really monitoredz

Sounds like it's being moderated perfectly. 

[Pickles]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I actually find the discussion on SoxTalk to be pretty civil and intelligent.  Are they a bit biased towards their guys?   Sure, just like we are biased towards ours.  Anyone who thinks we could or should get Cease with a package where Ortiz is the top prospect going back is kidding themselves.  

I don't see why.

He's a top 60ish prospect globally; you couldn't be more major league ready; and his floor is incredibly high.

Who's offering something better than that?  (And I'm willing to include more than Ortiz, quality too, but I haven't seen a single team linked to a Cease trade where the top prospect was clearly superior to Ortiz.

As I keep saying, they can go play with 19 year old pitchers if they want, but Ortiz is much more likely to provide value, and certainly provide sooner.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't see why.

He's a top 60ish prospect globally; you couldn't be more major league ready; and his floor is incredibly high.

Who's offering something better than that?  (And I'm willing to include more than Ortiz, quality too, but I haven't seen a single team linked to a Cease trade where the top prospect was clearly superior to Ortiz.

As I keep saying, they can go play with 19 year old pitchers if they want, but Ortiz is much more likely to provide value, and certainly provide sooner.

Ortiz has value but you overrate his value.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Ortiz has value but you overrate his value.

I mean I think I just enumerated it pretty well.

Are you going to get Adam Jones for Cease?  Nobody's offering that.

Nobody is even sniffing Kjerstad or Cowser in offer.  Very few could, or would.

I know they're not exactly equivalent value, but Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz, they get one of those guys.  Not two.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Pickles