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Cease vs everyone else

Sports Guy

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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

I'm just catching up on this but we know how Elias and company share information outside of their inner circle. They don't. We've heard from players many times say they don't hear from the Orioles abo

btdart20
btdart20
Spy Fox
Spy Fox

@Sports Guyis so prolific, he's the #3 poster on the Soxtalk thread despite joining on page 102 of 149. He's also the #1 poster in this thread, so potentially on track to be the #1 poster on both team

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emmett16 Hangout Grand Counsel

emmett16

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5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

No one seems to be interested in Shane Bieber.  The cost should be relatively low because he’s a one year rental and he missed a huge chunk of last season.  He’s lost something off his fastball and his strikeout numbers have plummeted BUT he still put up 200 innings with a 2.87 FIP in 2022 with the same fastball velocity as he had in 2023.   He came back and made his last two starts of the season in September.   I’d rather pay the lower prospect price and take the risk on Bieber.   I still think there’s a lot of upside with a full season of a healthy Bieber.   

He’s apparently on a velocity program this winter.  He’ll either gain a tick or two or blown out the UCL.  

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I predict that if anything does happen, it will be mid-January or later.  Elias is a patient guy and Getz appears to be in no hurry, either.

Yean, maybe in 2024 offseason we'll get a starter.  Patience is overrated.  I'm not saying Elias has to trade for Cease, but he needs to trade for or sign a better starter than our #4/5 guys.  Ideally better than Means too.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I mean I think I just enumerated it pretty well.

Are you going to get Adam Jones for Cease?  Nobody's offering that.

Nobody is even sniffing Kjerstad or Cowser in offer.  Very few could, or would.

I know they're not exactly equivalent value, but Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz, they get one of those guys.  Not two.

You don’t know what people are offering or how serious people are with some FA pitchers still out there.

 

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

You don’t know what people are offering or how serious people are with some FA pitchers still out there.

 

No, but I'm speculating on what we've heard.

Trading away global top 60 prospects who are major league ready with incredibly high floors doesn't happen every day.  In fact, it's very rare, because they have a lot of value.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

No, but I'm speculating on what we've heard.

Trading away global top 60 prospects who are major league ready with incredibly high floors doesn't happen every day.  In fact, it's very rare, because they have a lot of value.

Not sure he’s a global top 60 prospect and most top 60 prospects are old and that is his biggest issue.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Not sure he’s a global top 60 prospect and most top 60 prospects are old and that is his biggest issue.

He's 25.  He'll be fine.

Again, if they could've got a top 25 guy who was major league ready, they would have by now.  But they can't.

So their choice is what the Orioles let them have, or they can go play around with 19 year old arms.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Just now, Pickles said:

He's 25.  He'll be fine.

Again, if they could've got a top 25 guy who was major league ready, they would have by now.  But they can't.

So their choice is what the Orioles let them have, or they can go play around with 19 year old arms.

They can’t get a top 25 guy in all likelihood but they could get a top 50 guy who is 2-4 years younger and that is significant, no matter how much you choose to overlook it.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

They can’t get a top 25 guy in all likelihood but they could get a top 50 guy who is 2-4 years younger and that is significant, no matter how much you choose to overlook it.

Well, who's that guy?  Vaughn Grissom?

If a big factor in who they get is if the guy is 29 or 31 in 2030 when he's a free agent, then they're calculating in a very stupid way.  Now, they might be doing that.  They are the White Sox.

 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, who's that guy?  Vaughn Grissom?

If a big factor in who they get is if the guy is 29 or 31 in 2030 when he's a free agent, then they're calculating in a very stupid way.  Now, they might be doing that.  They are the White Sox.

 

I mean come on, you have to understand why age matters.  Just glossing over that is just foolish. If you don’t want Cease that’s fine but don’t be so naive.

They definitely got hurt when the Dodgers got Glasnow and Mr Roboto instead, that’s for sure but Cinci can offer them better guys than Ortiz, as an example.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean come on, you have to understand why age matters.  Just glossing over that is just foolish. If you don’t want Cease that’s fine but don’t be so naive.

They definitely got hurt when the Dodgers got Glasnow and Mr Roboto instead, that’s for sure but Cinci can offer them better guys than Ortiz, as an example.

I understand why age matters.  Everybody does.  You're not breaking anything new.  It's already calculated into Ortiz' value.

If Ortiz was 22, he'd be a top 10 prospect in the game, which nobody would ever give up for Cease.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I understand why age matters.  Everybody does.  You're not breaking anything new.  It's already calculated into Ortiz' value.

If Ortiz was 22, he'd be a top 10 prospect in the game, which nobody would ever give up for Cease.

lol…ok.

You are just being absurd at this point.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

lol…ok.

You are just being absurd at this point.

How so?

It's true.  If Ortiz was 22 years old, major league ready, with a career AAA of .900 OPS for 500+ PAs, with GG upside with the glove, he'd be damn near a top ten prospect in baseball.

The only reason he's a tier below is because he is older.

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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50 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yean, maybe in 2024 offseason we'll get a starter.  Patience is overrated.  I'm not saying Elias has to trade for Cease, but he needs to trade for or sign a better starter than our #4/5 guys.  Ideally better than Means too.

Given what I saw during the 2023 regular season, I think I'd rather be an offseason too early than an offseason too late to make the move.  I agree that it doesn't have to be Cease but it should be for somebody good in the next two months.

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