Cease vs everyone else

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You are completely overvaluing Kremer.

Let’s say we were trading Kremer solely for prospects.  What kind of return do you think he would bring?

I’m trying to think of trades involving similar level pitchers with similar service time, and the one that comes to mind immediately is our trade for Cole Irvin last year.   We got Irvin and a pretty obscure MiL pitcher for Darrel Hernaiz, who was ranked somewhere around 15th in our system.  At the time, Irvin had 2+ years of service, had thrown 404 innings in the majors, and had a career ERA+ of 90.  Kremer has thrown 370 innings to an ERA+ of 95.  I think it’s safe to say that Kremer is worth more than a Hernaiz-level player in a trade, but I doubt he would draw two prospects from another team’s top 10.   

[forphase1]

26 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Does anyone here really think the O's will aquire Dylan Cease? The Dodgers and other teams are interested in him, I think the Reds are interested.

I don't.   I think the Os aren't willing to trade their top talent (nor should they IMO) nor willing to trade too much of what they plan on helping the team this year.   In other words,  one of Ortiz/Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg, but not 2+ of them.   

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s say we were trading Kremer solely for prospects.  What kind of return do you think he would bring?

I’m trying to think of trades involving similar level pitchers with similar service time, and the one that comes to mind immediately is our trade for Cole Irvin last year.   We got Irvin and a pretty obscure MiL pitcher for Darrel Hernaiz, who was ranked somewhere around 15th in our system.  At the time, Irvin had 2+ years of service, had thrown 404 innings in the majors, and had a career ERA+ of 90.  Kremer has thrown 370 innings to an ERA+ of 95.  I think it’s safe to say that Kremer is worth more than a Hernaiz-level player in a trade, but I doubt he would draw two prospects from another team’s top 10.   

If I were the Os, I would go after high upside, far away prospects that are big risk/big reward guys. I think they deal would be out there with several teams.

Bur if you don’t do that, I’m thinking something where you get a few guys in the 7-20 range, depending on the system and team.

[24fps]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If I were the Os, I would go after high upside, far away prospects that are big risk/big reward guys. I think they deal would be out there with several teams.

Bur if you don’t do that, I’m thinking something where you get a few guys in the 7-20 range, depending on the system and team.

I'm all in favor of acquiring high upside, far away prospects, but to me, that role should be left for the amateur and international draft.  If the O's are going to trade Cowser, Ortiz and the like, they need to go toward competing in 2024.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, oriolediehard said:

Does anyone here really think the O's will aquire Dylan Cease? The Dodgers and other teams are interested in him, I think the Reds are interested.

So?  

If he was a free agent, then competition from the Dodgers would pretty much eliminate the Orioles.

But he isn't a free agent.   The currency needed to acquire him appears to be prospects.   And when it comes to that kind of currency, the Orioles are as "big market" a team as there is out there.

Not saying we should overpay in terms of prospects, but I have little fear that any team can out-spend us when the currency is prospects, so the fact that other teams are interested doesn't matter like it would for a free agent.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, SteveA said:

So?  

If he was a free agent, then competition from the Dodgers would pretty much eliminate the Orioles.

But he isn't a free agent.   The currency needed to acquire him appears to be prospects.   And when it comes to that kind of currency, the Orioles are as "big market" a team as there is out there.

Not saying we should overpay in terms of prospects, but I have little fear that any team can out-spend us when the currency is prospects, so the fact that other teams are interested doesn't matter like it would for a free agent.

I think the Dodgers are more willing to be more aggressive in just about any market than the Orioles are.  Yes, we probably have more prospect chips than they to, but they may just be more willing to push their chips to the center of the table than we are because they have multiple ways of replenishing talent.   Not saying that will necessarily happen here.  

[Sports Guy]

43 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I'm all in favor of acquiring high upside, far away prospects, but to me, that role should be left for the amateur and international draft.  If the O's are going to trade Cowser, Ortiz and the like, they need to go toward competing in 2024.

They can do both…that’s the beauty of having tons of assets.

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You are completely overvaluing Kremer.

So if you say 2 “7-20” and I say 1 top 5 and one in the 10 range and a lottery ticket there may not be a huge difference. 
 

Let’s assume it’s the Braves….they are ranked #27 here.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-rankings

Smith Shawver is their only top 100.

So let’s say you could deal Kremer for 1 of #5/#6 Murphy/Ritchie, #13 Luis De Avila, and a DSL guy.

i think that’s fairly similar to what you are saying. Where would these guys rank in our top 30? 7-10 and 16-19?
 

Also, I think you are undervaluing Kremer who had 1 bad month in 2 years and otherwise was a 3.5 ERA pitcher over 300 innings. 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

Does anyone here really think the O's will aquire Dylan Cease? The Dodgers and other teams are interested in him, I think the Reds are interested.

I don’t but if the asking price was 2 top 100s plus 2 very good prospects, I’m guessing the Reds are probably out.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So if you say 2 “7-20” and I say 1 top 5 and one in the 10 range and a lottery ticket there may not be a huge difference. 
 

Let’s assume it’s the Braves….they are ranked #27 here.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-rankings

Smith Shawver is their only top 100.

So let’s say you could deal Kremer for 1 of #5/#6 Murphy/Ritchie, #13 Luis De Avila, and a DSL guy.

i think that’s fairly similar to what you are saying. Where would these guys rank in our top 30? 7-10 and 16-19?
 

Also, I think you are undervaluing Kremer who had 1 bad month in 2 years and otherwise was a 3.5 ERA pitcher over 300 innings. 

 

 

His ERA was almost 6 in June too. Are we getting rid of that month too?

Im just curious how much bad baseball we are throwing away to pretend that Kremer is better than he is.

[Aristotelian]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Which Reds deal are you referring to?

The rumor is three MLB top 100 prospects starting with #45, plus others. I would not be surprised if that ends up being the price. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/details-on-dylan-cease-trade-talks-between-white-sox-reds.html

5 hours ago, oriolediehard said:

Does anyone here really think the O's will aquire Dylan Cease? The Dodgers and other teams are interested in him, I think the Reds are interested.

The odds are always against any specific trade and nothing said in the 111 pages of this thread has changed that. I do think he is a good target and the O's can beat any offer, but will they? 

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His ERA was almost 6 in June too. Are we getting rid of that month too?

Im just curious how much bad baseball we are throwing away to pretend that Kremer is better than he is.

Are you down on Kremer because he doesn’t have overpowering stuff?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you down on Kremer because he doesn’t have overpowering stuff?

I’m not really down on him at all. I just don’t think he’s that great and we have the ability to upgrade on him.

Hes fine for a 4th starter. Most teams in the league, including the Os, don’t have 5 starters better than him.

But unlike most teams, the O’s have the ability to bring in multiple starters that can help now and long term. 
 

As I said before, teams like the Os shouldn’t pay guys like Kremer. Teams like the Os should be able to develop starters that can be league average. It’s imperative that teams like the Os make those types of decisions.

Now, of course Kremer isn’t expensive yet and they don’t have to trade him now because of that.

However, coming off a decent year combined with our resources and need to improve in the rotation, both for the regular season and the playoffs I would look to make those moves now.

It’s not some bad decision to keep Kremer or anything, it’s just trying to get ahead of what I feel is likely a decline in stats.

[HakunaSakata]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let’s say we were trading Kremer solely for prospects.  What kind of return do you think he would bring?

Earlier this month the Braves traded Marco Gonzales (along with cash) to the Pirates for a player to be named later. Gonzales seems like a similar pitcher to Kremer to me in terms of ability. He's 31 and has a club option for 2025 and will be an unrestricted FA in 2026. Kremer's younger and is under contract longer (four years) so I guess I'd say he'd net you someone slightly better than a player to be named later. 

Digging into Kremer's numbers, I really don't seem much to like. He had an xERA of nearly 5 last season and a terrible 7.81 K/9 rate. 46 of the balls hit against him in 2023 were also  "barreled". For context, Marcus Stroman only gave up 20 barrels.  To me, Kremer seems like a  somewhat serviceable MLB pitcher who probably needs some good luck each season to keep his ERA out of the high 4s. He's essentially there to eat innings, but doesn't seem like a player with any upside at all. to me He's certainly someone the team should be looking to improve upon.

We should probably try to trade Kremer to the Pirates since they seem intent on trading for and/or signing mediocre pitchers this offseason. He would pair nicely with Gonzales and Falter and they would be the pitching equivalent of three bottles of Boon's Farm Wine

 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Earlier this month the Braves traded Marco Gonzales (along with cash) to the Pirates for a player to be named later. Gonzales seems like a similar pitcher to Kremer to me in terms of ability. He's 31 and has a club option for 2025 and will be an unrestricted FA in 2026. Kremer's younger and is under contract longer (four years) so I guess I'd say he'd net you someone slightly better than a player to be named later. 

Digging into Kremer's numbers, I really don't seem much to like. He had an xERA of nearly 5 last season and a terrible 7.81 K/9 rate. 46 of the balls hit against him in 2023 were also  "barreled". For context, Marcus Stroman only gave up 20 barrels.  To me, Kremer seems like a  somewhat serviceable MLB pitcher who probably needs some good luck each season to keep his ERA out of the high 4s. He's essentially there to eat innings, but doesn't seem like a player with any upside at all. to me He's certainly someone the team should be looking to improve upon.

We should probably try to trade Kremer to the Pirates since they seem intent on trading for and/or signing mediocre pitchers this offseason. He would pair nicely with Gonzales and Falter and they would be the pitching equivalent of three bottles of Boon's Farm Wine

 

Gonzales isn’t a comp because of his contract and Gonzales didn’t have a good year most recently.