Cease vs everyone else

[Three Run Homer]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

We don’t really know what Getz has demanded, nor do we know whether any teams have made realistic offers for Cease yet.  The one thing I’ve divined is that Getz isn’t in a big hurry and neither is Elias, so I think if any deal happens between the Sox and O’s, it will be in the second half of January or later.   

The problem is that the good free agent starting pitchers will probably all be gone by then.  

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

 

Digging into Kremer's numbers, I really don't seem much to like. He had an xERA of nearly 5 last season and a terrible 7.81 K/9 rate. 46 of the balls hit against him in 2023 were also  "barreled". For context, Marcus Stroman only gave up 20 barrels.  To me, Kremer seems like a  somewhat serviceable MLB pitcher who probably needs some good luck each season to keep his ERA out of the high 4s. He's essentially there to eat innings, but doesn't seem like a player with any upside at all. to me He's certainly someone the team should be looking to improve upon.

I understand that’s what the numbers say, but watching him, I feel there’s a lot more to Kremer that meets the eye.  That may just be the homer in me, or the fact that I like Kremer’s personality.  

[HakunaSakata]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gonzales isn’t a comp because of his contract and Gonzales didn’t have a good year most recently.

It was more of a pitcher comp. If I was ranking MLB pitchers they'd be in a similar tier for me. And I'm being generous by including Kremer in that tier because Gonzales has a had a better / longer career, even though I don't really believe in him. I think Kremer could very easily have a Gonzales-like 2023 season if things break wrong for him. I'm not really a fan of of pitchers that get hit hard because it seems like their margin for error is much smaller. 

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I understand that’s what the numbers say, but watching him, I feel there’s a lot more to Kremer that meets the eye.  That may just be the homer in me, or the fact that I like Kremer’s personality.  

Fair enough. I think your sentiment tells me that Kremer is probably more valuable to us than he would be to other teams. 

[sportsfan8703]

Recency bias against Kremer and Cowser. Kremer got lit up in his playoff start. Cowser had a terrible cup of coffee. 

So we’d have to subtract our #4 SP for four years, our LF for six years, and our RH UTIL IF for six years, just to add Cease for two?  All while still having to go with one of Wells/Irvin in the rotation?

It’s better to just roll with what we have. Cease isn’t as big of a need as he was at the deadline because the 2nd half that Grayson had, combined with the whole season Bradish had. I’d even say that Means looked pretty good before he was shut down, and Wells/Irvin/Hall all had big 2nd half’s when relievers. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Recency bias against Kremer and Cowser. Kremer got lit up in his playoff start. Cowser had a terrible cup of coffee. 

So we’d have to subtract our #4 SP for four years, our LF for six years, and our RH UTIL IF for six years, just to add Cease for two?  All while still having to go with one of Wells/Irvin in the rotation?

It’s better to just roll with what we have. Cease isn’t as big of a need as he was at the deadline because the 2nd half that Grayson had, combined with the whole season Bradish had. I’d even say that Means looked pretty good before he was shut down, and Wells/Irvin/Hall all had big 2nd half’s when relievers. 

Rather see the O's add FA Lorenzen and keep the O's prospects and Kremer.

[dystopia]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Earlier this month the Braves traded Marco Gonzales (along with cash) to the Pirates for a player to be named later. Gonzales seems like a similar pitcher to Kremer to me in terms of ability. He's 31 and has a club option for 2025 and will be an unrestricted FA in 2026. Kremer's younger and is under contract longer (four years) so I guess I'd say he'd net you someone slightly better than a player to be named later. 

Digging into Kremer's numbers, I really don't seem much to like. He had an xERA of nearly 5 last season and a terrible 7.81 K/9 rate. 46 of the balls hit against him in 2023 were also  "barreled". For context, Marcus Stroman only gave up 20 barrels.  To me, Kremer seems like a  somewhat serviceable MLB pitcher who probably needs some good luck each season to keep his ERA out of the high 4s. He's essentially there to eat innings, but doesn't seem like a player with any upside at all. to me He's certainly someone the team should be looking to improve upon.

We should probably try to trade Kremer to the Pirates since they seem intent on trading for and/or signing mediocre pitchers this offseason. He would pair nicely with Gonzales and Falter and they would be the pitching equivalent of three bottles of Boon's Farm Wine

 

Calling a 7.8 K/9 “terrible” is outrageous. 

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Calling a 7.8 K/9 “terrible” is outrageous. 

I mean, if you aspire to be Kyle Gibson-like I guess it's not terrible. It's really the combination of everything. Relatively low K rate, high barrel rate, etc. Kremer doesn't really excel at...anything. 

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Rather see the O's add FA Lorenzen and keep the O's prospects and Kremer.

Yea, making the team better is so overrated.  

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Calling a 7.8 K/9 “terrible” is outrageous. 

Its not terrible but it is below average.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, making the team better is so overrated.  

You are a dreamer.  Keep dreaming.  There is nothing wrong with that.  But don't let it break your heart.

Edited December 27, 2023 by wildcard

[Spy Fox]

3 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

The problem is that the good free agent starting pitchers will probably all be gone by then.  

I think there were only a handful of good ones within the O’s likely price range. Stroman might already be the only one left of those, and even that’s above the price range a lot of folks expect. 

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You are a dreamer.  Keep dreaming.  There is nothing wrong with that.  But don't let it break your heart.

You are saying this is what YOU want.  You don’t want the team to get better. You just think everything is going to be fine.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

The problem is that the good free agent starting pitchers will probably all be gone by then.  

Our plan is working perfectly.

[24fps]

47 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I think there were only a handful of good ones within the O’s likely price range. Stroman might already be the only one left of those, and even that’s above the price range a lot of folks expect. 

Interestingly, 2024 ZIPS has Stroman as Kremer's #1 comp.  If for no other reason it's interesting because all the crapping on Kremer has gone a little overboard at this point IMO.  The O's need one more solid starter and if that means Kremer ends up as #5 (which is about right) then the O's must have a pretty good rotation on Opening Day.