Cease vs everyone else

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

 

To me, that is what he is. An average-ish pitcher that can help almost any team but he’s hardly irreplaceable and he shouldn’t be talked about in the same breath of many of the pitchers we are discussing.

One place where you and I often disagree is the ease with which “average-ish” players can be replaced.  I don’t strongly disagree with your assessment of Kremer, but I don’t think there are lots of guys just sitting around who are just about as good and can be acquired easily and don’t have to be paid a ton of money.   

Also, while I agree with you that it’s often misleading to cherry pick a month here or a month there, I do think that Kremer learned some things as last season went along and it would not surprise me if his overall numbers were better in 2024 than 2023, even though Statcast and FIP suggest his ERA was somewhat lucky the last two years.   Maybe that’s wishful thinking, but it’s my gut feeling having watched him all year.  
 

[IPlayGM]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One place where you and I often disagree is the ease with which “average-ish” players can be replaced.  I don’t strongly disagree with your assessment of Kremer, but I don’t think there are lots of guys just sitting around who are just about as good and can be acquired easily and don’t have to be paid a ton of money.   

Also, while I agree with you that it’s often misleading to cherry pick a month here or a month there, I do think that Kremer learned some things as last season went along and it would not surprise me if his overall numbers were better in 2024 than 2023, even though Statcast and FIP suggest his ERA was somewhat lucky the last two years.   Maybe that’s wishful thinking, but it’s my gut feeling having watched him all year.  
 

One thing to consider regarding Kremers value and ability to be replaced: if he were on the open market this year what would he receive? Looking at the contracts given out, my guess is he is a 16-18 mil a year guy for multiple years. So having him for what we have him for seems actually pretty great value.

[foxfield]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure where you got 7.81 from.   Kremer’s K rate last year was 8.18, and I wouldn’t call that terrible.  Of 117 pitchers who threw 100+ innings last year, that ranked 72nd.  Better than a lot of pitchers who are being chased this winter.  I’m not disputing the other points in your argument but this point was factually wrong.

 

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, by definition, he was only better than 38% of the pitchers out there in terms of K rate.

Again, terrible is the wrong word but well below average seems fitting.

 

Better than 38% of the 117 pitchers who threw more than 100 innings is not the same as only better than 38% of the pitchers out there. 
 

[HakunaSakata]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d be fine with mediocre.  But if you look at the list:

Kirby 8.12 -

Verlander 7.98

Montgomery 7.92

Stroman 7.74

Bieber 7.52

I think Kremer’s K rate is perfectly acceptable.  The other points @HakunaSakatamade were more convincing (not that I’m completely convinced).   

 

 

 

For Kirby, Verlander, and Stroman I think the key is that they do something that stands out (unlike Kremer). Kirby has an almost unprecedented Maddux-like walk rate. Same with Verlander in his later years to a lesser extent, although it spiked a bit last season.  Stroman does a better job of suppressing hard contact. 

Montgomery and present day Bieber aren't terrible comps, but I'm not particularly high on either pitcher. Bieber was at his best when his K rate was much higher and he's been trending in the wrong direction for the last few seasons. And I think regression is coming for Montgomery. 

 

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

One thing to consider regarding Kremers value and ability to be replaced: if he were on the open market this year what would he receive? Looking at the contracts given out, my guess is he is a 16-18 mil a year guy for multiple years. So having him for what we have him for seems actually pretty great value.

Seth Lugo got $15M per year and Kenta Maeda got $12M per year.  I think both are better pitchers than Kremer. He'd probably be looking at something similar to Wade MIley's deal which was for $8.5M per year. 

[RZNJ]

Bradish 168 IP 168 K’s.

Kremer 172 IP 157 K’s.

Doesn’t seem like a huge difference.

Maybe I’m severely underrating Kremer.  My issue with Kremer is he seems to me to be a two pitch pitcher without either of those pitches (fastball/cutter) being great.   He’s never been able to consistently use the curve (which he was noted for in the minors) or the changeup.   When he’s good it’s like how did he do it.

[HakunaSakata]

52 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Also Greg Maddux had a K/9 in the 6s as well. 

Greg Maddux had the second lowest walk-rate among MLB HOF pitchers. He also pitched in a completely different era. Evoking his name in a conversation about Dean Kremer borders on blasphemy. 

[Just Regular]

Here's a link to Kremer's K/9 standing among last year's 100 IP starters - Bryce Miller was the other entertaining name to see right below him.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&qual=100&sortcol=8&sortdir=default&pageitems=30&stats=sta&pagenum=3

I'll guess that Kremer does not start one of the first five games for the 2026 Orioles, which would be his Arb2 season.    We talk a lot about 6 years, but in many cases the juice is out of the orange by the end of Arb1.    I'm curious to see how it plays out but I have a feeling Santander getting his final tender is in part an artifact of joining the organization when a pipeline didn't exist.

At the minimum, I think for 2024 Kremer is kind of a star for the market we're in.    Like Kyle Gibson, he feels like a pretty low variance, what you see is what you get kind of pltcher.    To the extent keeping guys with their buddies is a thing roster construction wise, I noticed Bradish and Kremer both mention each other at different times last year.

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One place where you and I often disagree is the ease with which “average-ish” players can be replaced.  I don’t strongly disagree with your assessment of Kremer, but I don’t think there are lots of guys just sitting around who are just about as good and can be acquired easily and don’t have to be paid a ton of money.   

Also, while I agree with you that it’s often misleading to cherry pick a month here or a month there, I do think that Kremer learned some things as last season went along and it would not surprise me if his overall numbers were better in 2024 than 2023, even though Statcast and FIP suggest his ERA was somewhat lucky the last two years.   Maybe that’s wishful thinking, but it’s my gut feeling having watched him all year.  
 

The best organizations do a good job of finding averageish production for little cost. Most organizations do a poor job of this, thus why it’s “not easy to find”.

I mean, look no further than Kremer himself. A few years ago, every one of the people on here who are clamoring for him now would have been perfectly happy to trade him for a bag of balls. No one thought he would become anything but the Os developed him and turned him into a good pitcher under this new way of doing things.

The Os have gotten reasonably good seasons from Gibson and Lyles. They have found guys off of waivers that have gone from nothing to something.

And this is all before the fruits of the farm system start bearing out real talent on the pitching side of things, which should start to happen soon.

I have the utmost confidence in Elias that he can replace average production one way or another. Even if they struggle to replace Kremer directly, I think he can make up for it in other areas of the team.

Whatever your personal win projection is for the Os right now, if they trade Kremer, I doubt it changes much, if at all. 

[OriolesMagic83]

10 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Nice to see you, Mr. Angelos.  

My favorite stat is ROI.

[owknows]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The best organizations do a good job of finding averageish production for little cost. Most organizations do a poor job of this, thus why it’s “not easy to find”.

I mean, look no further than Kremer himself. A few years ago, every one of the people on here who are clamoring for him now would have been perfectly happy to trade him for a bag of balls. No one thought he would become anything but the Os developed him and turned him into a good pitcher under this new way of doing things.

The Os have gotten reasonably good seasons from Gibson and Lyles. They have found guys off of waivers that have gone from nothing to something.

And this is all before the fruits of the farm system start bearing out real talent on the pitching side of things, which should start to happen soon.

I have the utmost confidence in Elias that he can replace average production one way or another. Even if they struggle to replace Kremer directly, I think he can make up for it in other areas of the team.

Whatever your personal win projection is for the Os right now, if they trade Kremer, I doubt it changes much, if at all. 

Given that he's cheap, you seem to make a pretty good case for keeping him.

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

Given that he's cheap, you seem to make a pretty good case for keeping him.

But that's what would make him valuable in a trade.

I am 50/50 on Kremer, really.  I think he's a guy that gets a lot out of his abilities and he can surprise you every once in awhile with a gem.  When he's awful, he's pretty terrible which is why he's in the #3, #4 part of a rotation and not a 1 or a 2.  

As far as trading him or keeping him, like I said, I'm 50/50.  I wouldn't mind keeping him because he's got a spot towards the back of the rotation and he's pretty solid.  But I also wouldn't slam the door in anyone's face if they inquired about his availability, either.  Pulling the trigger on a trade would, of course, determine on what's coming back for him.

So as you noted, there's value there.  But if you want to get some value back in a trade, you'll have to part with some, too.  That could include Kremer.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, owknows said:

Given that he's cheap, you seem to make a pretty good case for keeping him.

 

There is a good case for keeping him…there’s just a better case for trading him imo.

[24fps]

2 hours ago, IPlayGM said:

One thing to consider regarding Kremers value and ability to be replaced: if he were on the open market this year what would he receive? Looking at the contracts given out, my guess is he is a 16-18 mil a year guy for multiple years. So having him for what we have him for seems actually pretty great value.

$16-18 million a year will be a good deal more that the cost of the entire rotation including Cease should the O's actually acquire him.  Kremer is a bargain for what the O's need in 2024 if our assumptions about budget limits are correct.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, different eras matter and finding 2 examples actually makes your case worse.  I’ll give you another one..Buerhle.

That said, I could find hundreds and thousands of cases where it didn’t work out.

Secondly, zero people have said he can’t be successful. That is your straw man argument although it is good that you have moved on from your poor argument of taking away one month.

The discussion is about how good will he be long term. When you have mediocre to poor statcast data, strike guys out at a below average pace and struggle to miss bats, your margin for error is pretty low. Most, if not all, of his advanced stats say he should be worse. His ERA+, even in this so called “good year” was exactly 100, which is league average.  
 

To me, that is what he is. An average-ish pitcher that can help almost any team but he’s hardly irreplaceable and he shouldn’t be talked about in the same breath of many of the pitchers we are discussing.

Question what was Kremers ERA if you omit April?