Cease vs everyone else

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What’s our OF in 2025 if we have to trade Cowser and Kjerstad for Cease?  
 

EBJ, Beavers, Wagner/Horvath/Fabian/Hilliard

We don’t have some endless stockpile of starting level depth like people assume. We don’t participate in FA. Can’t just make a huge trade for Cease then cry when we don’t sign FA. 

Mullins and Hays are still 2025 Orioles - by 2026 maybe Braylin Tavera is in the picture should his development progress anything like Mayo or Basallo's.

I hope Cowser and Kjerstad are better bets to be championship caliber players than Mullins and Hays in time but today I don't think it is sure their life mastery of the game of baseball will get that high.

It is sure they will play 2025 and 2026 for the minimum wage.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It seems more likely that Cease is the best he can get because the owner will not spend in FA. Do you think he’d be pursuing Cease if the owner was willing to spend enough to be a Top 20 payroll?

Yes…because I don’t think Elias would spend big on FAs anyway.

And there are other starters available in trade that aren’t as costly.

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, SoxFan3344 said:

Two years for a team that’s currently in its contention window, at a measly $8 mil per season, with a ceiling of a Cy Young candidate, is a bargain. If Shoto Imanaga is gonna net $80-$100 mil, Dylan Cease is a bargain and is controllable, whether you want to believe it or not is on you

It wouldn’t be 8M per season. I’d expect 2/25ish. Also, I’m not concerned about his ceiling. You can’t trade for someone with that in mind. His mid case projection is a 3/4 SP. White Sox are expecting a return like he’s a 1/2 SP. Probably because he’s the only real asset they have besides Robert. If someone wants to offer more than Ortiz, Stowers, and Povich you should take them up on it. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

Two years for a team that’s currently in its contention window, at a measly $8 mil per season, with a ceiling of a Cy Young candidate, 32+ starts in each of the last 3 season is a bargain. If Shoto Imanaga is gonna net $80-$100 mil, Dylan Cease is a bargain and is controllable, whether you want to believe it or not is on you

Cease isn’t making 8M in 2025 unless he really blows or is hurt for 2024.

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes…because I don’t think Elias would spend big on FAs anyway.

And there are other starters available in trade that aren’t as costly.

I don’t expect he’d be after Snell or Yamamoto, but no reason we shouldn’t have pursued EdRod for what he got. Trades for guys like Cease when we have the second lowest payroll in MLB only happens because of pathetic ownership. 

[sportsfan8703]

There’s some other things to consider in a Cease trade other than just the on the field talent/perfoemances.

1) We get two years of an Ace without having to pay $30+ million a year. So that’s $50 million in excess savings.

2) We keep him off the Yankees.

3) It’s easier to find an OF stop gap option than a TOR SP. In 2025, we might be looking at a Hicks, or Hilliard, type OF. 

[Just Regular]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I find this to be funny.

Elias is consistently lauded by Os fans for how good he is at recognizing talent, developing talent, etc…

Yet in this case, when he is going after a guy he clearly wants and values, everyone pours to him not being as good as he was in 2022.

Do you trust Elias or not? Do you think Elias is engaging the WS to acquire Cease because he thinks he will get him here and he will struggle?

Or do you think he wants him because he sees that they can tweak him for him to become a much better pitcher?

Im assuming they think they can make him better.

Also he knows better than anyone who out of Ortiz, Norby, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, Povich and McDermott are going to end up having 2 WAR careers, and some of them are.

But to Chris Getz everyone is awesome!

[waroriole]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

There’s some other things to consider in a Cease trade other than just the on the field talent/perfoemances.

1) We get two years of an Ace without having to pay $30+ million a year. So that’s $50 million in excess savings.

2) We keep him off the Yankees.

3) It’s easier to find an OF stop gap option than a TOR SP. In 2025, we might be looking at a Hicks, or Hilliard, type OF. 

1. He’s not an ace. Not even close

2. Who cares. 
 

3. Hicks or Hilliard as an OF is enough to scare anyone into not trading Cowser or Kjerstad 

[SoxFan3344]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cease isn’t making 8M in 2025 unless he really blows or is hurt for 2024.

Hell 2 years $20-$30 mil is still an incredible bargain when guys like Frankie Montas is making $17 mil next year without throwing a single pitch in 2023

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, SoxFan3344 said:

Hell 2 years $20-$30 mil is still an incredible bargain when guys like Frankie Montas is making $17 mil next year without throwing a single pitch in 2023

It's insane that Montas is getting that type of coin.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

Hell 2 years $20-$30 mil is still an incredible bargain when guys like Frankie Montas is making $17 mil next year without throwing a single pitch in 2023

It is..just pushing back on your thought that he is 8M per year.

[sportsfan8703]

If the Yankees get one of Snell, Montgomery, or Cease, then these three things are probably true,

1) The Yankees and Rays have better rotations than us.

2) The Yankees and Rays have better bullpens than us.

3) The Yankees and Rays have just as good as lineups than us 1-6. So we could argue 7-9. 
 

Over 162 that could be a recipe for 3rd place especially without Bautista. Stuff is real now. Elias has had the luxury of not making a deal, but he also chose to not make a Jordan Montgomery trade deadline deal and chose Flaherty instead. Now he could choose to pass on Cease, and the Yankees add one of the TOR SP, and we get shutout this offseason.  I’m all for playing AL East defense, but now we could be facing the possibility that Snell and/or Montgomery signs within the division. 

[Just Regular]

For sure today BAL-NYY is a reasonably likely AL tournament matchup to occur, and both Clubs aren't great at SP3.

Dylan Cease is probably the Top 1 pitcher to be traded before Spring Training, but not necessarily in the Top 5 of pitchers who will be traded before the 2024 playoffs.

You can also give Marcus Stroman money if you want a pitcher approximately of Dylan Cease's caliber and to hug a prospect.

[SoxFan3344]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

For sure today BAL-NYY is a reasonably likely AL tournament matchup to occur, and both Clubs aren't great at SP3.

Dylan Cease is probably the Top 1 pitcher to be traded before Spring Training, but not necessarily in the Top 5 of pitchers who will be traded before the 2024 playoffs.

You can also give Marcus Stroman money if you want a pitcher approximately of Dylan Cease's caliber and to hug a prospect.

The O’s are not giving Marcus Stroman $22+ mil per year

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, SoxFan3344 said:

The O’s are not giving Marcus Stroman $22+ mil per year

I'd consider it for one season.