Cease vs everyone else

[Moose Milligan]

Why is Cease such a big deal on here

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Why is Cease such a big deal on here

Because he’s a realistic and attainable target, has been durable, strikes a lot of guys out and finished 2nd in the Cy Young in 2022.

[HakunaSakata]

29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Why is Cease such a big deal on here

That's a great question. I really wish we'd "cease" starting new topic threads about him ever other day. 

[HakunaSakata]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Because he’s a realistic and attainable target, has been durable, strikes a lot of guys out and finished 2nd in the Cy Young in 2022.

Attainable? That's very debatable considering the White Sox are going to try and make suitors overpay for that 2022 season. Also, I'm not sure what him finishing 2nd for the Cy Young two years ago really matters since that season is pretty clearly the outlier in his career. If anything it's the reason we shouldn't trade for him. We're trading for what we think he will do, not what he did once but is unlikely to ever do again. 

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Why is Cease such a big deal on here

For me, it’s the upside he represents. 
 

Power pitchers with good swing and miss are important in October.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Attainable? That's very debatable considering the White Sox are going to try and make suitors overpay for that 2022 season. Also, I'm not sure what him finishing 2nd for the Cy Young two years ago really matters since that season is pretty clearly the outlier in his career. If anything it's the reason we shouldn't trade for him. We're trading for what we think he will do, not what he did once but is unlikely to ever do again. 

No we aren’t.  You are trading for what he has been and hoping you can unlock 2022 again.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

That's a great question. I really wish we'd "cease" starting new topic threads about him ever other day. 

You can just not read them. We would all be happy about that.

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No we aren’t.  You are trading for what he has been and hoping you can unlock 2022 again.

We have five seasons worth of data on Cease. He's essentially been a 4.00+ ERA pitcher for four of those seasons. Everything about his 2022 season points to it being an unstainable outlier. So trading for it would be foolish. 

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can just not read them. We would all be happy about that.

Or maybe you could just respond to one post as opposed to starting a new one each time?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Sports Guy]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

We have five seasons worth of data on Cease. He's essentially been a 4.00+ ERA pitcher for four of those seasons. Everything about his 2022 season points to it being an unstainable outlier. So trading for it would be foolish. 

No one is advocating trading for his 2022 season.  If we were, we would be discussing our top 3 prospects and more.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Or maybe you could just respond to one post as opposed to starting a new one each time?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is a different topic. It’s a comp between him and other pitchers.  When you start combining multiple topics into one thread, things start to get too crazy in one thread.

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No one is advocating trading for his 2022 season.  If we were, we would be discussing our top 3 prospects and more.

The White Sox are certainly going to be advocating trading for his 2022 season and some desperate team that misses out on the high end FA pitchers will probably pay their asking price. That's why Cease isn't a good fit / target. The only thing that separates him from every other 4.00ish ERA pitcher is the strikeouts and those are somewhat canceled out by all his walks (i.e., small margin for error). 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

The White Sox are certainly going to be advocating trading for his 2022 season and some desperate team that misses out on the high end FA pitchers will probably pay their asking price. That's why Cease isn't a good fit / target. The only thing that separates him from every other 4.00ish ERA pitcher is the strikeouts and those are somewhat canceled out by all his walks (i.e., small margin for error). 

So he’s not a good target because of some what if scenario you have drummed up in your head that may or may be true?

That makes no sense.

If they think they should get 2022 value for him and they every team will ignore all the other years than they aren’t trading him.

Im guessing that doesn’t happen but until it does, saying he’s not a good target is incredible foolish.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Attainable? That's very debatable considering the White Sox are going to try and make suitors overpay for that 2022 season. Also, I'm not sure what him finishing 2nd for the Cy Young two years ago really matters since that season is pretty clearly the outlier in his career. If anything it's the reason we shouldn't trade for him. We're trading for what we think he will do, not what he did once but is unlikely to ever do again. 

The White Sox are looking to trade him.  The Orioles are in a good position to obtain him.  That makes him attainable.  Teams ask for more and get less.  It’s how trades work.  We’ll see.

The 2022 season might be the outlier but it’s very recent.  It shouldn’t be ignored completely.    While he may never have a season like that it’s also possible that he is better than he showed in 2023, which still had value.   At 28, he’s a good bet to be a #3 with a chance for more.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The White Sox are looking to trade him.  The Orioles are in a good position to obtain him.  That makes him attainable.  Teams ask for more and get less.  It’s how trades work.  We’ll see.

The 2022 season might be the outlier but it’s very recent.  It shouldn’t be ignored completely.    While he may never have a season like that it’s also possible that he is better than he showed in 2023, which still had value.   At 28, he’s a good bet to be a #3 with a chance for more.

The GM that was asking the moon for Cease is gone.