Cease vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

My bigger point is that not only were the WS deranged even mentioning the names Basallo and Mayo, they were equally deluded about Cowser and Kjerstad.  Now, noone here was ever going to move Basallo or Mayo, but almost everyone was willing to give a least Cowser AND Ortiz, and MORE!, for Cease.  It was always an aburd overpay, and I'm glad that Elias has more discipline than the majority of this board.

Let’s stick with Cowser and Ortiz for a second.  How is that an absurd overpay for 2 years of Cease?    I could certainly argue that Hall and Cowser are close in value and that Hall is more important to the 2024 Orioles than Cowser.   It can also be argued that 2 years of Cease has more value than one year of Burnes.

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't really consider Hall a prospect though I think he might still technically classify as one.

I think Ortiz was the more valuable piece.

Technically, Hall is not a prospect but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be the headliner.  Baseball America, who still treated Hall as a prospect, had him rated #76 and Ortiz outside the top 100.   I don’t agree with that but they are close enough in value, in my book, that I would call them 1A and 1B in this trade and it’s hard to say which one is which.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

You would think any trade the Orioles would do for Cease, however unlikely, would have to involve Dean Kremer, right? You can't stick him in the bullpen after he threw 170 innings. 

It's hard to imagine the Orioles giving up more prospects than Ortiz and Hall in a single offseason at this point. If we assume that they want to stay away from the top 5, expendable guys include Norby, Stowers, Povich, Beavers, etc. That kind of package probably doesn't get it done. 

And is the upside of adding Cease at this point better than keeping Cowser/Kjerstad, even Kremer? Dunno. 

If we were to get Cease then that means that Kremer, Norby, and Stowers would be parts and should go in the trade. Who knows what Getz wants for Cease now?

I’m not sure if just because we can afford to trade a package of Kremer, Norby, Povich, and Stowers for Cease, that we should. It would be really nice though to have arguably the best rotation in baseball and still have the same farm system just minus Povich. 

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If we were to get Cease then that means that Kremer, Norby, and Stowers would be parts and should go in the trade. Who knows what Getz wants for Cease now?

I’m not sure if just because we can afford to trade a package of Kremer, Norby, Povich, and Stowers for Cease, that we should. It would be really nice though to have arguably the best rotation in baseball and still have the same farm system just minus Povich. 

I don’t think it happens…. I think they will possibly add a reliever to replace Hall.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

I don't really consider Hall a prospect though I think he might still technically classify as one.

I think Ortiz was the more valuable piece.

 You think that but that doesn’t mean it’s reality. 

I think the most logical conclusion is that they value Hall the most because they believe he’s a starting pitcher and, all things being equal, pitching just fetches more even if hitters are more reliable.

I personally think you can argue which piece is the most valuable and that includes the draft pick, which also means more draft pool money. Both those things have value too.

Im not sure this deal has an actual headliner. I think it’s just 3 pieces of relative equal value that is a fair trade for one year of a player.  Cease would and should have cost more. This was the smarter route to take because Burnes is better and you got to keep your better prospects. It would have been nice to have the extra year of Cease but the cost difference likely wasn’t worth it.

[Bemorewins]

If the cost for acquiring Cease included Mayo or Kjerstad, I think that it would be something that we would have to take a serious look at. Yes it would be painful to lose one of our top 5 prospects. However, if we were to replace Kremer in the rotation with Cease, IMO we would have the best rotation in the sport. And still have either Mayo/Kjerstad to replace Santander next season (if we don't want to resign him which is a possibility). 

[Big Mac]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If the cost for acquiring Cease included Mayo or Kjerstad, I think that it would be something that we would have to take a serious look at. Yes it would be painful to lose one of our top 5 prospects. However, if we were to replace Kremer in the rotation with Cease, IMO we would have the best rotation in the sport. And still have either Mayo/Kjerstad to replace Santander next season (if we don't want to resign him which is a possibility). 

I would be hesitant to give up much to replace Kremer in the rotation with Cease.  I think you are paying a premium there for what could very well only be a marginal upgrade.  Of course if we get the 2022 version of Cease that's a huge upgrade, but otherwise I don't view it as a significant upgrade. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I would be hesitant to give up much to replace Kremer in the rotation with Cease.  I think you are paying a premium there for what could very well only be a marginal upgrade.  Of course if we get the 2022 version of Cease that's a huge upgrade, but otherwise I don't view it as a significant upgrade. 

I think Kremer had a little better season last year. But in terms of upside/talent/ceiling I would take Cease 10 times out of 10. Even id Cease never gets back back to 2022 version if he gets anywhere close that is vastly superior to Kremer IMO.

[Big Mac]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I think Kremer had a little better season last year. But in terms of upside/talent/ceiling I would take Cease 10 times out of 10. Even id Cease never gets back back to 2022 version if he gets anywhere close that is vastly superior to Kremer IMO.

Sure, I don't disagree with that assessment.  But we are talking Kremer, Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg and a couple of other impact pieces in all likelihood v. Cease.  I'd rather keep the prospects and roll with Kremer or use prospect capital to get an impact reliever.  

[Too Tall]

I swear this thread is a vampire. Would someone put a stake in it. Where is Buffy???????????????

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Sure, I don't disagree with that assessment.  But we are talking Kremer, Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg and a couple of other impact pieces in all likelihood v. Cease.  I'd rather keep the prospects and roll with Kremer or use prospect capital to get an impact reliever.  

I understand that approach. I don't see Westberg, Cowser, and Kjerstad all being included in any one trade unless you were getting back a pre-big payday Aaron Judge or something like that. But I accept that with trades, if you want to get value you have to be willing to give some as well. I think we are well stocked to be able to give up one of our top 5 prospects (not named Holliday or Basallo) and be fine. I believe in Elias/Sig to the degree that I feel confident in them being able to find more of the non-special prospects/young talent (not named Holliday/Adley/Grayson/Henderson) regardless of where we pick in the draft. And even Henderson was not top of the draft. I believe even Basallo is the first of more to come.

[sportsfan8703]

17 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

I swear this thread is a vampire. Would someone put a stake in it. Where is Buffy???????????????

I’d say that it actually might be more realistic now to get Cease than it was pre-sale and Burnes. Now we’re in. We’re title contenders. We’re going for it, making a push, however you want to word it. But we’re not all in to the point where we don’t have options. 

With all of the above being said… is Povich the type of prospect that a WS contender just slots into their rotation?  He’d have to really put it all together in AAA this year to earn that. Which is a good thing. So if Povich has to go in a trade now, it hurts less than it would’ve when we would’ve had to just play poor ball. Angelosball. 

So now Povich and Kremer are on the table when last week we really couldn’t afford to trade either. Especially not both. It’s a whole different ball game now. 

Edited February 2 by sportsfan8703

[Tony-OH]

On 1/30/2024 at 11:56 AM, Frobby said:

You are correct.   It kept getting so long that Tony would close it and start another.  If you just sort the list like @dystopia said, you’ll see threads of 309, 161, 154, 154, 140, 140, 83, 74, 70, 65 and 63 pages all titled “The Teixeira Watch” but with “Part __” after the first one.  So, that’s 1281 pages total.  

To be fair, there have been a few other Cease threads, too.  The amazing thing about this one is about half of the thread has had nothing to do with Cease, it’s just rambled all over the place.  
 

And that is different from how many other "classic" threads?

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He is one of the guys that claims to be an insider.

Well the guy does have 162k posts. Of course if all the boards were combined, SG and Frobby probably have close to 400k each.

[sportsfan8703]