Cease vs everyone else

[Hallas]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That absolutely have to beat that package or else they would have Cease. 
 

I think they will be able to get the Yankees to pay up if they don’t get Snell or Montgomery.

The Yankees barely have enough of a farm to beat us out for Burnes, I don't think they are close to having what it takes to get Cease.  Even if they offered their entire farm, we could probably beat their best package with Kjerstad/Cowser headlining.

Edited February 2 by Hallas

[Hallas]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

We'll see what they get.  I still don't believe they'll get a top 20ish guy for him.  

The only variable is if they keep him this season and he has a very strong first half.  Then ok, yeah, they'll do better than what the O's offered likely.  But that's a hell of a risk for them.

 

Edit: If you were the White Sox would you have accepted Ortiz/Hall for Cease?  I would have.

No way.  I would have expected back Cowser or Kjerstad instead of Ortiz, and I'd also expect back a 3rd player.  Probably someone like Norby or McDermott.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, the White Sox are stupid. 

As I'm about to say to Sports Guy, we'll see what they get when they move him, but they're not going to get a top 20 guy and a top 60 guy, which is imo an equivalent Cowser/Ortiz deal.  And if the O's had offered Hall/Ortiz for Cease, which seems likely, they should have hopped all over it.

See this is also part of the equation..how do you define a significantly better prospect.

Ortiz is not a top 60 guy. Almost every evaluator disagrees with you on that.

Cowser is probably not a top 20 guy although that can be argued.  Same with Kjerstad.

I have always thought they could get 1 top 50 guy, another guy on the borderline of top 100 (say a guy in the 75-120 range) and maybe they can get one more player like a Max Wagner type guy.

Thats why Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg as a headliner with Ortiz or Beavers made the most sense to me.

I would bet the Os had something like Ortiz, Hall and Beavers on the table…maybe willing to trade the pick too, for Cease.

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, in the end of the day, we got the better pitcher while giving up lesser prospects.  Now the years might change the equation some, but my point 300 pages has so far held to be true: The White Sox won't receive a significantly better prospect as a headliner than Joey Ortiz for Cease.

 

Edit: Unless you want to argue that Hall is equivalent in value to Cowser.  You could make that case, but I don't think it's a strong one.  Also important to note, most were willing to add to Cowser/Ortiz, many significantly, i.e. Povich.  Elias played the waiting game and it worked out well for the Orioles.

Sure, that was me who was originally ok with Cowser and Ortiz and eventually willing to add Povich.  Of course, that was thinking Burnes was unavailable and it was basically Cease or nothing.   Do you know that Cowser wasn't on the table for Cease?     

I think Cowser and Ortiz is still fair value for Cease and if there were no other options I think a lot of people would have been ok adding Povich if the alternative was nothing.  Elias did a great job here, no doubt but that doesn't make Cowser and Ortiz for Cease absurd by any stretch.   

[Safelykept]

12 hours ago, interloper said:

Well, we only saw Kremer because Means got hurt basically. 

I would be fine rolling up to the playoffs with our top 4 right now. I wouldn't be opposed to Cease, I just don't think it's in the cards at this point between Elias taking his foot off the pedal and Getz being in outer space somewhere. 

You would have saw him anyways Remember I'm a big John Means apologist (Means starts game 2  with the CY left field factor) GRod starts game 3 in his home state of Texas

Edited February 3 by Safelykept
Provide more info

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, dystopia said:

I can’t believe people are seriously still suggesting to pursue Cease. 

Put it this way: the value I’d be willing to exchange in a trade for Cease just went way down.  

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

See this is also part of the equation..how do you define a significantly better prospect.

Ortiz is not a top 60 guy. Almost every evaluator disagrees with you on that.

Just Baseball has him at 43, Eric Longenhagen had him at 57 in his last update (and talked about him as such in evaluating this trade), and MLB.com had him very close at 63.   Obviously there are other sources who disagree, but I would say “almost every evaluator” disagrees.  Theres a split of opinion.  Listening to the Elias interview, Milwaukee valued him highly and he had a lot of other inquiries about Ortiz over the offseason.  

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just Baseball has him at 43, Eric Longenhagen had him at 57 in his last update (and talked about him as such in evaluating this trade), and MLB.com had him very close at 63.   Obviously there are other sources who disagree, but I would say “almost every evaluator” disagrees.  Theres a split of opinion.  Listening to the Elias interview, Milwaukee valued him highly and he had a lot of other inquiries about Ortiz over the offseason.  

Right…some have him higher but most have him out of the top 100 or on the bottom half.…would put him around 80th or so, which is basically in the middle of what people are saying, which is probably accurate as the opinions are all over the place. I’m just not seeing a top 60 guy at all.

Now, I think he’s a better bet to give you positive WAR than many names in front of him but his age definitely effects.

So, what is a significantly better prospect?  How is that being defined.  Pickles said Cease isn’t getting a top 20 Guy…we have always agreed on that. The WS board is effing delusional on what they think he’s worth.

As I said, I think he’s worth a top 50 guy (lower end of the top 50), a borderline top 100 guy and maybe, depending on the other 2 prospects, another B-/C+ prospect. 
 

Ortiz isn’t a headliner for him. That was always a pipe dream.  He’s not that good of a prospect and really, he doesn’t make a lot of sense for the WS imo. Getz believes they could contend in 2 years but that roster is garbage. I don’t see it. I think they are 3+ and that’s before accounting for the idea of profits coming in and the owner getting greedy.

Edited February 3 by Sports Guy

[sportsfan8703]

I think part of the reason why they want so much for Cease is that he was their golden boy pitching prospect, so it hurts them that the Covid shortened 2020 season counted as a full year of control.  So if they’re trading him away with two years of control then it’s like… hardly knew ya.  That’s their problem.  

 

[Sports Guy]

17 hours ago, Hallas said:

The Yankees barely have enough of a farm to beat us out for Burnes, I don't think they are close to having what it takes to get Cease.  Even if they offered their entire farm, we could probably beat their best package with Kjerstad/Cowser headlining.

The Yankees have several top 100 guys although you can debate if any should be in the top 50. They could trade 3-4 guys that are top 100/borderline top 100 and most of them are younger guys too. 
 

They definitely can do it if they want to.

[dystopia]

59 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think part of the reason why they want so much for Cease is that he was their golden boy pitching prospect, so it hurts them that the Covid shortened 2020 season counted as a full year of control.  So if they’re trading him away with two years of control then it’s like… hardly knew ya.  That’s their problem.  

 

I think he's just been gushed over by media and pundits so much that it's hard for them to accept that he's not worth a team's entire farm system. I don't think it's any more complicated than that. 

[Sports Guy]

According to one of the supposed insiders, the WS presented the Os with a list of 3 players and they wanted 2 of them. Maybe Mayo was one of those guys but I think the assumption is one of Cowser or Kjerstad and Westburg. 

Thats not a deal I would do over what we did for Burnes but it is a deal I would have done.

If they still want to deal with the Os for Cease, as I said before, I think they have to take Kremer back along with one of those 2 OFers.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

Another factor with Ortiz: the Brewers are the type of organization, and in an organizational position where they would value him MUCH more than the White Sox. The Brewers and the Rays - like the Rays just did with Glasnow - make a living off trading players about to hit free agency for high-floor controllable MLB-ready players that aren’t viewed as having the tantalizing upside. Ortiz is the quintessential prospect in that mold. Those organizations are perennially competitive and that’s the way they keep the machine running. 

The White Sox are a dumpster fire, going to be bad for a number of years, and need to hit on a number of high ceiling guys. It’s not surprising they wouldn’t value Ortiz highly. 

Where you place Ortiz on a “top 100” list is a matter of personal preference based on your appetite for risk/upside/floor/proximity to the majors. Those lists are made in a team-neutral context and get ranked by the largely by the preferences of whoever is writing them. For the Brewers I bet he’s within the top 50 prospects that they would want to target. For the White Sox he’s probably well outside their top 100. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Another factor with Ortiz: the Brewers are the type of organization, and in an organizational position where they would value him MUCH more than the White Sox. The Brewers and the Rays - like the Rays just did with Glasnow - make a living off trading players about to hit free agency for high-floor controllable MLB-ready players that aren’t viewed as having the tantalizing upside. Ortiz is the quintessential prospect in that mold. Those organizations are perennially competitive and that’s the way they keep the machine running. 

The White Sox are a dumpster fire, going to be bad for a number of years, and need to hit on a number of high ceiling guys. It’s not surprising they wouldn’t value Ortiz highly. 

Where you place Ortiz on a “top 100” list is a matter of personal preference based on your appetite for risk/upside/floor/proximity to the majors. Those lists are made in a team-neutral context and get ranked by the largely by the preferences of whoever is writing them. For the Brewers I bet he’s within the top 50 prospects that they would want to target. For the White Sox he’s probably well outside their top 100. 

Great point. 

[interloper]

2 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Another factor with Ortiz: the Brewers are the type of organization, and in an organizational position where they would value him MUCH more than the White Sox. The Brewers and the Rays - like the Rays just did with Glasnow - make a living off trading players about to hit free agency for high-floor controllable MLB-ready players that aren’t viewed as having the tantalizing upside. Ortiz is the quintessential prospect in that mold. Those organizations are perennially competitive and that’s the way they keep the machine running. 

The White Sox are a dumpster fire, going to be bad for a number of years, and need to hit on a number of high ceiling guys. It’s not surprising they wouldn’t value Ortiz highly. 

Where you place Ortiz on a “top 100” list is a matter of personal preference based on your appetite for risk/upside/floor/proximity to the majors. Those lists are made in a team-neutral context and get ranked by the largely by the preferences of whoever is writing them. For the Brewers I bet he’s within the top 50 prospects that they would want to target. For the White Sox he’s probably well outside their top 100. 

Yep. We were really the perfect team to trade with for them. So many ML ready guys they can just plug right in. We're doing the same thing this year basically. And you have to wonder which pending FAs we might trade in the next year or two to keep the pipeline rolling. Maybe no one, but it wouldn't shock me.