Cease vs everyone else

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

He’s been top-10 in CYA each of the last four years (winning it once). IMO, you have to have an insanely tight definition of what a “number 1” entails if you don’t think he’s a strong bet as anyone to be a good one. 

He has also shown decline the last few years. The decline is still really good but if he is all of a sudden a 3.5-3.7 ERA guy, I’m not going to be surprised and that’s why I don’t think he’s some slam dunk to be an ace level guy.

I think he’s going to be really good..I’m just saying there is a difference between thinking he’s going to be very good and be willing to basically guarantee he’s an ace level guy.

[sportsfan8703]

I see that the CWS have acquired to MLB ready LH COF over the weekend. Seems like they pivoted after we made the Burnes trade. So if anything, at least we know they interested in at least one of Cowser, Kjerstad, and Stowers. They also obviously didn’t seem too concerned with the age of the prospects either. 

[btdart20]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has also shown decline the last few years. The decline is still really good but if he is all of a sudden a 3.5-3.7 ERA guy, I’m not going to be surprised and that’s why I don’t think he’s some slam dunk to be an ace level guy.

I think he’s going to be really good..I’m just saying there is a difference between thinking he’s going to be very good and be willing to basically guarantee he’s an ace level guy.

Strong second half splits show he made an adjustment.  Don't know who posted the X clip of the slider/sweeper, but that looks like a strong pitch.  

1st half - .211/.286/.348, 8.55 K/9, 3.27 BB/9

2nd half - .187/.259/.294, 10.22 K/9, 2.81 BB/9

Only non-injury concern I see is maintaining the velo.  

He also got a little unlucky with the HRs last year.  25 on the season and 24 stadiums projected a lower total.

[sportsfan8703]

It’s telling that after Elias has seemingly been negotiating with them since last July that we couldn’t even agree with them on a trade for Santos. Either we didn’t like Santos or they really don’t value our similar tiered players like Stowers and Norby. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Strong second half splits show he made an adjustment.  Don't know who posted the X clip of the slider/sweeper, but that looks like a strong pitch.  

1st half - .211/.286/.348, 8.55 K/9, 3.27 BB/9

2nd half - .187/.259/.294, 10.22 K/9, 2.81 BB/9

Only non-injury concern I see is maintaining the velo.  

He also got a little unlucky with the HRs last year.  25 on the season and 24 stadiums projected a lower total.

I’m aware of all of this and I know people will find reasons to be optimistic. I am too.

But being optimistic and willing to essentially guarantee ace level production are 2 different things. I’m not willing to go there.

[btdart20]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m aware of all of this and I know people will find reasons to be optimistic. I am too.

But being optimistic and willing to essentially guarantee ace level production are 2 different things. I’m not willing to go there.

O's: trade for Burnes

SG:

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m aware of all of this and I know people will find reasons to be optimistic. I am too.

But being optimistic and willing to essentially guarantee ace level production are 2 different things. I’m not willing to go there.

I think that’s fair enough, the way you’ve stated it. Per ZiPS, pre-trade Burnes’ 20th percentile projection was 3.95.  N nobody’s calling that a no. 1 starter, though it’s still a very solid starter.   

The point of my post that started this was I’m much more confident that Burnes will have a very good season than I am about Cease, even though Cease’s upside is similar.   Cease’s 20th percentile projection is 4.81 — yechhh.

 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s fair enough, the way you’ve stated it. Per ZiPS, pre-trade Burnes’ 20th percentile projection was 3.95.  N nobody’s calling that a no. 1 starter, though it’s still a very solid starter.   

The point of my post that started this was I’m much more confident that Burnes will have a very good season than I am about Cease, even though Cease’s upside is similar.   Cease’s 20th percentile projection is 4.81 — yechhh.

 

I agree with that.

[Roll Tide]

I think there is 0 chance we add Cease now. I think we can move on from this thread.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think there is 0 chance we add Cease now. I think we can move on from this thread.

What's stopping you?

[ThisIsBirdland]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Cease had a far better K rate.

Cease had a better FIP. 

The BaBIP vs Cease was 330..for Burnes it was 244. So, Burnes was on the luckier side and Cease was on the unluckier side. Cease was in the harder park to pitch in.

Cease missed more bats.

I actually agree with you that I think Burnes had the better year despite what fWAR says but Cease had a far better year than what the stats say and had he played on a real team, with a real defense, I think his stats look far better and much close to Burnes.

Wouldn't you need to assume that the BABIP was influenced by the quality of contact just as much if not more than luck? Burnes' statcast looks far better than Cease's pretty much across the board, but definitely on average exit velocity, hard hit %, and ground ball %. Barrel % better too but not by as much.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corbin-burnes-669203?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dylan-cease-656302?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Wouldn't you need to assume that the BABIP was influenced by the quality of contact just as much if not more than luck? Burnes' statcast looks far better than Cease's pretty much across the board, but definitely on average exit velocity, hard hit %, and ground ball %. Barrel % better too but not by as much.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corbin-burnes-669203?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dylan-cease-656302?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Sure and this is why Frobby likes xERA and now seems to discount BABiP.

But Cease had better looking numbers in 2021 even though his statcast data was similar to 2023.  His BABIP was 21 points lower too.

So, I think it’s fair to say he was a bit unlucky last year. 
 

His xERA in 2021 was 3.65..last year it was 4.13.

Comparing the 2, the exit velo was .8 MPH higher in 2023 and he allowed a hard hit% of 2.8% higher..but his barrel % was 9.9 in 2021 and it was 6.2 last year..he went from the 15th percentile to 77th percentile.

So, yes, I think he was unlucky last year.  

[Aglets]

Hopefully we can get this to 400 pages or so by Opening Day. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure and this is why Frobby likes xERA and now seems to discount BABiP.

But Cease had better looking numbers in 2021 even though his statcast data was similar to 2023.  His BABIP was 21 points lower too.

So, I think it’s fair to say he was a bit unlucky last year. 
 

His xERA in 2021 was 3.65..last year it was 4.13.

Comparing the 2, the exit velo was .8 MPH higher in 2023 and he allowed a hard hit% of 2.8% higher..but his barrel % was 9.9 in 2021 and it was 6.2 last year..he went from the 15th percentile to 77th percentile.

So, yes, I think he was unlucky last year.  

I'm not fluent enough with the data to agree or disagree with those conclusions unfortunately. Generally speaking, I believe this data and xERA dials into more detail and pitcher controlled variables than FIP, but I'm definitely no expert on either.

I agree that an unmotivated, poor defense would take it's toll on any SPs topline numbers though, versus a well managed team like the Brewers. But I still see enough significant differences between their statcast data and their overall track record to feel that even with both having a better defense and luck, that Burnes still has a significantly higher chance to outperform Cease with a much safer floor. TBD of course.

[btdart20]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s fair enough, the way you’ve stated it. Per ZiPS, pre-trade Burnes’ 20th percentile projection was 3.95.  N nobody’s calling that a no. 1 starter, though it’s still a very solid starter.   

The point of my post that started this was I’m much more confident that Burnes will have a very good season than I am about Cease, even though Cease’s upside is similar.   Cease’s 20th percentile projection is 4.81 — yechhh.

 

Agreed.  Cease was unlucky.  But his BB% didn't help him any either.  Cease is poised for a bounceback/regression to mean season.

For Burnes, I look at his changed slider/sweeper similar to Bradish adding a sinker at the end of 2022.  Quality pitches and the tunnelling effect build on each other.  Second half Burnes is what I'm expecting.