Cease vs everyone else

[TommyPickles]

I'm losing faith that we're going to acquire a TOR pitcher. I'm coming around to the idea of just signing someone like Hyun Jin Ryu to a one-year deal for like 12-15 million. 

Ryu > Gibson > Lyles 

Just keep getting slightly better vets on one-year deals. Not my first choice, but I could live with it.

1. Bradish

2. Grayson

3. Means

4. Ryu

5. Kremer

Hall, Wells, Irvin to the pen. 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I'm losing faith that we're going to acquire a TOR pitcher. I'm coming around to the idea of just signing someone like Hyun Jin Ryu to a one-year deal for like 12-15 million. 

Ryu > Gibson > Lyles 

Just keep getting slightly better vets on one-year deals. Not my first choice, but I could live with it.

1. Bradish

2. Grayson

3. Means

4. Ryu

5. Kremer

Hall, Wells, Irvin to the pen. 

 

Yeah I think there is a very high probability that the pitcher the O's sign is either Wacha or Ryu.  Basicly the best pitcher they can get for a 1 year deal.  Other team's fans can dream of signing Ohtani, Yamamoto, or Snell, but O's fans have to have lower expectations. 

[24fps]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have zero expectation that we would be able to get Cease back to 2022 levels.   Do you have any idea how good he was that year?   WAY better than Bradish was in 2023 for us.   Sure, getting him back to that is a best case scenario we could hope for.  But to expect that, or close, is foolish.  It’s more realistic to think we can get him back to being the 113 ERA+ he’s been over his career.  That’s how he should be valued in a trade, and anything we get from him beyond that is gravy.  

Fair enough.  I should have said "...back toward 2022 levels".  The point I was trying to get at is nobody is going to succeed in trading for him if they expect CWS to value him as the 2023 version of Dylan Cease, you're going to pay a premium to gamble on his upside.  And that's fine with me.  Plenty of people are going moan about "losing the trade" if they perceive Elias has overpaid, but I don't care unless the cost is truly egregious.  To me, a solid SP is the big missing piece that needs to be addressed this offseason and Cease is the most realistic option I see.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

Fair enough.  I should have said "...back toward 2022 levels".  The point I was trying to get at is nobody is going to succeed in trading for him if they expect CWS to value him as the 2023 version of Dylan Cease, you're going to pay a premium to gamble on his upside.  And that's fine with me.  Plenty of people are going moan about "losing the trade" if they perceive Elias has overpaid, but I don't care unless the cost is truly egregious.  To me, a solid SP is the big missing piece that needs to be addressed this offseason and Cease is the most realistic option I see.

The whole “losing the trade” thing is really a dumb thing to worry about when you are on the verge of winning a title. 

[Spy Fox]

9 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I'm losing faith that we're going to acquire a TOR pitcher. I'm coming around to the idea of just signing someone like Hyun Jin Ryu to a one-year deal for like 12-15 million. 

Ryu > Gibson > Lyles 

Just keep getting slightly better vets on one-year deals. Not my first choice, but I could live with it.

1. Bradish

2. Grayson

3. Means

4. Ryu

5. Kremer

Hall, Wells, Irvin to the pen. 

I like Ryu enouogh if they do dip into the 1 year FA market again.

But, I haven't really lost hope in a trade, whether that's Cease or somewhere else. There's just so much flexibility in what Elias can do, I think he's eventually going to get a deal he likes enough. The offseason is less than half over.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The whole “losing the trade” thing is really a dumb thing to worry about when you are on the verge of winning a title. 

It’s also dumb to think Dylan Cease is the missing piece to winning a title.

[Billy F-Face3]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

It’s also dumb to think Dylan Cease is the missing piece to winning a title.

This.

[OriolesMagic83]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

It’s also dumb to think Dylan Cease is the missing piece to winning a title.

I would have said the same about Eovoldi. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would have said the same about Eovoldi. 

Rik Dempsey was MVP of the 83 series.  Eovaldi missed half of July, all of August and was terrible in September.   He probably doesn’t even get a post season start on the Orioles.  Baseball is a very funny game.

Maybe Dean Kremer is the Orioles 2024 post season hero.  Stranger things have happened.

Edited December 14, 2023 by RZNJ

[Spy Fox]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

It’s also dumb to think Dylan Cease is the missing piece to winning a title.

I think it would be dumb to think that Dylan Cease is the definite and only missing piece to winning a title. But not dumb to think that one more playoff-level SP is the most likely missing piece to winning a title, and that Cease is one of the best current options for acquiring one. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

I think it would be dumb to think that Dylan Cease is the definite and only missing piece to winning a title. But not dumb to think that one more playoff-level SP is the most likely missing piece to winning a title, and that Cease is one of the best current options for acquiring one. 

Most likely missing piece to winning what title?

[Spy Fox]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Most likely missing piece to winning what title?

#1 in the ESPN Power Rankings of course!

[RZNJ]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

#1 in the ESPN Power Rankings of course!

Right. Lol

Dylan Cease strengthens our rotation and makes us a better team and he could be really good.   Then again, if we make the playoffs folks might want to see GRod, Bradish, and Means throw the first 3 games.   That doesn’t sound too outlandish to me.

Chances are we want GRod and Bradish throwing two of those games and if we lose both starts like in 2023 we’re in big trouble even with Koufax in his prime.

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right. Lol

Dylan Cease strengthens our rotation and makes us a better team and he could be really good.   Then again, if we make the playoffs folks might want to see GRod, Bradish, and Means throw the first 3 games.   That doesn’t sound too outlandish to me.

Chances are we want GRod and Bradish throwing two of those games and if we lose both starts like in 2023 we’re in big trouble even with Koufax in his prime.

I agree with everything you said here. I also think it's more likely than not that Cease outperforms one of GRod/Bradish/Means next year. 

You can imagine the White Sox after 2022 saying, we may not need to prioritize the top of the rotation, we'll probably throw Cease, Kopech and Lynn in our playoff games if we make it. Then in 2023 those three guys' ERAs go 2.20 to 4.58, 3.54 to 5.43, and 3.99 to 6.47. I'm not projecting that decline for our guys, and the Sox collapsed for plenty of other reasons, but it's an example of why we need to assume some guys won't be at their best. 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

I think it would be dumb to think that Dylan Cease is the definite and only missing piece to winning a title. But not dumb to think that one more playoff-level SP is the most likely missing piece to winning a title, and that Cease is one of the best current options for acquiring one. 

 No one thinks Cease is definitely the missing piece.  He’s beyond stupid to suggest that.(I know you aren’t saying that)

That said, Cease absolutely could be the missing piece.  
 

The reason I want Cease is the upside he has and his ability to miss bats, stay healthy and he has a level as a starter that many haven’t achieved.

Chances are, he won’t get to that level again but his chance of being dominant in a small sample size in October are higher than many other pitchers because of his stuff and upside.

We know this team has enough to be a playoff team. We know this team has a lot more talent coming and the team is likely to get more talented over the next 1-2 years than it was last year.

But we also know that we likely aren’t producing  a high upside starter over the course of the next 1-2 years and another high upside starter is what this team needs for a playoff run.

Cease is no guarantee and again, it’s dumb for anyone to suggest he is or that it is what anyone is saying but he’s an obtainable guy that could provide this team exactly what it needs, so he’s worth the risk.

It’s ok to have more than 1 or 2 guys with TOR ability. It’s ok to increase the margin for error and have upper echelon depth in  case of injury or unexpected poorer performance. There are no guarantees for anything. No guarantee Bradish keeps it up or GRod has a big full season or that the Os get more out of Cease. But the more guys you have with that type of ability, the better your chances are.

Going back to the thought of “winning a trade”. While it would be nice, that shouldn’t be the focus. We are past that. We are at the point where winning a trade should be defined by us making a move that makes us better and gives us a better chance to win in October. We give up a little more value to do that, so be it. 

For all the ass kissing people do to Elias, they should feel confident that he can replace 25 year old MIers and others prospects that are in that 6-20 range. He has proven he can do it. 
 

The top top guys are the ones that are harder to replace but when you have depth in those areas and you have a need, you trade out of it. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Sports Guy