Cease vs everyone else

[Billy F-Face3]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 No one thinks Cease is definitely the missing piece.  He’s beyond stupid to suggest that.(I know you aren’t saying that)

That said, Cease absolutely could be the missing piece.  
 

The reason I want Cease is the upside he has and his ability to miss bats, stay healthy and he has a level as a starter that many haven’t achieved.

 

He has been better than average literally, only 1 time out of 5 years in his career. There's a 4 in 5 probability that he's just average and has the same ERA as Kyle Gibson. The chances of him being "the missing piece" is less than 20%. I'm not a betting man, but my friend made a living in Vegas and he showed me he always looks for the odds on the Poker Machines before deciding to play, and if the odds were that low, he would NEVER play in that casino.

And considering the investment you have to make to acquire him, it's an absolutely TERRIBLE deal when you can get better for a similar price.

Conclusion: We ain't getting Dylan Cease.

 

[Billy F-Face3]

Well that wasn't typed where I thought it was.  First 3 paragraphs were SG. Outside of that was me typing.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Well that wasn't typed where I thought it was.  First 3 paragraphs were SG. Outside of that was me typing.

It’s better that it was hidden..it was so many lies and bs, it just doesn’t matter.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[TommyPickles]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The average peak for a player is at 26-28.  Obviously there are plenty of exceptions.   But, if you are signing Santander, the odds of a decline from 3.0 are higher than that he’ll bump up from there.  

Shout out to Melvin Mora who was worth 

3.9 WAR in his twenties

and

24.4 WAR in his thirties

 

(Obviously, you're right, but that's my favorite Oriole exception)

[Billy F-Face3]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s better that it was hidden..it was so many lies and bs, it just doesn’t matter.

Cognitive dissonance is a dangerous drug. 1 out of 5. The numbers on his career statistics are there for the entire world see.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Cognitive dissonance is a dangerous drug. 1 out of 5. The numbers on his career statistics are there for the entire world see.

In 3 of his 5 seasons, his ERA+ was over 100 and this year it was at 97.

Only his rookie year was he not average or better or very close to average and even last year, he had some great peripheral stats and a 3.7 fWAR.

And that’s just one stat. You are either lying, have no idea how to read/interpret/understand stats or are purposefully being a troll. I don’t know which it is but you are just factually wrong and your whole take is embarrassing.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Hank Scorpio]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In 3 of his 5 seasons, his ERA+ was over 100 and this year it was at 97.

Only his rookie year was he not average or better.

And that’s just one stat. You are either lying, have no idea how to read/interpret/understand stats or are purposefully being a troll. I don’t know which it is but you are just factually wrong and your whole take is embarrassing.

I reward you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Hank Scorpio

[sportsfan8703]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do agree with this, but you’re right that injuries played a big role too.  Let’s not forget that the Yankees won 99 games in 2022.  

This is the best argument for why we need to add a SP like Cease or Burnes. The Yankees added Soto, and Rodon/Cortes should be healthy. 

We did dodge a bullet with Ohtani not signing with Toronto. 

The Rays get a little weaker with losing Stephenson and Glasnow. 

Wells was the AL WHIP leader at the 23’ ASB. Irvin was the AL ERA leader at the 22’ ASB. Hall could’ve finally learned how to get MLB hitters out. But… all of that is scary if we want to repeat 101 wins. 

I trust Elias. 

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

This is the best argument for why we need to add a SP like Cease or Burnes. The Yankees added Soto, and Rodon/Cortes should be healthy. 

We did dodge a bullet with Ohtani not signing with Toronto. 

The Rays get a little weaker with losing Stephenson and Glasnow. 

Wells was the AL WHIP leader at the 23’ ASB. Irvin was the AL ERA leader at the 22’ ASB. Hall could’ve finally learned how to get MLB hitters out. But… all of that is scary if we want to repeat 101 wins. 

I trust Elias. 

Sounds like @wildcard can get a Cy Young season from either Cole Wells or Tyler Irvin.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sounds like @wildcard can get a Cy Young season from either Cole Wells or Tyler Irvin.

Half a Cy Young.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sounds like @wildcard can get a Cy Young season from either Cole Wells or Tyler Irvin.

I’m just a realist. It was a coin flip at last year’s ASB over who was our best SP in the first half… Wells or Bradish?  I definitely like the idea of LH SP at OPACY, and I think we could spot start Irvin some. If went with Wells as a member of the rotation with sprinkling in some Irvin to give everyone extra rest, then I think we at least replace what Gibson gave us as a floor, with the potential to be a #3 SP until July 31. 

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, Bird Lady said:

What are the chances of Cease being Jack Flaherty II?

Flaherty was last good in 2019.  Cease was Cy Young runner up in 2022.  I would say very small.

 

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Flaherty was last good in 2019.  Cease was Cy Young runner up in 2022.  I would say very small.

 

Flaherty was quite good in 2021, he just didn't have many innings.

I agree the risk is pretty low, though it is possible.

[24fps]

37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m just a realist. It was a coin flip at last year’s ASB over who was our best SP in the first half… Wells or Bradish?  I definitely like the idea of LH SP at OPACY, and I think we could spot start Irvin some. If went with Wells as a member of the rotation with sprinkling in some Irvin to give everyone extra rest, then I think we at least replace what Gibson gave us as a floor, with the potential to be a #3 SP until July 31. 

Wells and Irvin will get plenty of opportunity anyway.  The O's gave starts to 9 pitchers in 2023 but the Yankees and Red Sox needed 13 apiece.  The Blue Jays had four pitchers make over 30 starts but still needed 8 starters overall.  The Rays needed 17 but they used an opener strategy for at least part of the season, so that somewhat skews their data.

My point is that even with a rotation healthy enough to have four starters give you 120+ starts you will still want to have at least 4 more pitchers on hand who can go multiple innings to be covered.  Having Wells, Irvin and Hall available to step in before having to dip in to AAA is huge IMO, but one more durable SP is still needed by Opening Day.

Edited December 14, 2023 by 24fps

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Well that wasn't typed where I thought it was.  First 3 paragraphs were SG. Outside of that was me typing.

So you typed this: “He (Cease) has been better than average literally, only 1 time out of 5 years in his career.”

You have a different interpretation of the word “literally” than I do, because Cease had a 111 ERA+ in 2020, 112 in 2021, and 180 in 2022, each time actually pitching enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.  All of those seasons were above average in my book.