BRob News to Come on Thursday?

[RShack]

This is your "opinion" and I respect that, but its not a fact. Roberts could be very solid throughout the length of the contract. My point is we won't know that until 4 years from now, so no sense US worrying about it now. That's what MacPhail gets paid for.

Exactly right. Anybody who is sure about how BRob is gonna play a few years down the road overestimates their own ability. The oh-so-certain forecasts of BRob's imminent demise are a few years premature.

IMO, folks are making way too big a deal about 1 measly year, as if it will somehow make or break the franchise. It won't. People talk about seeing "the big picture". Well, if you bother to actually look at the big picture, you'll see that an extra year on a BRob contract is small potatoes. I can understand why folks prefer 3 to 4, but the real issue here is BRob being a career-long Oriole. To act like that's not the case is ignoring a part of reality. Just because that might not have any value to fan-GM's, that doesn't mean it has no value to the real-GM who's running the club.

[Mackus]

This is your "opinion" and I respect that, but its not a fact. Roberts could be very solid throughout the length of the contract. My point is we won't know that until 4 years from now, so no sense US worrying about it now. That's what MacPhail gets paid for.

No, you are confusing what "will" happen with what "is likely" to happen. It is a closer to a fact, than an opinion, that he isn't likely to be an average player or better in years 4 and 5 of this contract. Its certainly an opinion to say what he will or won't do, but it is not as much of an opinion to state what he's generally most likely to accomplish over the next x-amount of years.

He certainly could be an All Star for each of the next 5 seasons. Or he could be out of baseball in 2011. Neither would be unprecedented for an AS caliber 31 y/o 2B. But in terms of what is most likely, that would be something that follows the general trend of what similar players to Roberts have done over similar stages of their careers.

Look at Roberts' top-10 BB-Ref comps, there are a few guys who went on to play quite well for many more seasons (Larkin and Biggio among them) and other guys who were no better than replacement level players or out of baseball 2-3 years after they turned 30. Roberts obviously could be another one of the extremes, or he could be somewhere in the middle, which is probably most likely. For the next 3 years he should be pretty darn good, but slowly declining. By the 4th year league average for a 2B would be optimistic, and by the 5th year from now he's unlikely to be an average player.

[DrungoHazewood]

Look at Roberts' top-10 BB-Ref comps, there are a few guys who went on to play quite well for many more seasons (Larkin and Biggio among them) and other guys who were no better than replacement level players or out of baseball 2-3 years after they turned 30. Roberts obviously could be another one of the extremes, or he could be somewhere in the middle, which is probably most likely. For the next 3 years he should be pretty darn good, but slowly declining. By the 4th year league average for a 2B would be optimistic, and by the 5th year from now he's unlikely to be an average player.

I'm not sure that's true. Look at his PECOTAs. The 2009s aren't out yet, but the 2008s are useful, since he exceeded his 2008 weighted means by a little bit. They project out the rest of his career. And they think that his most likely outcome is to stay almost the same offensive player he is right now through 2012. A projected .281/.371/.459 line for 2009, and .281/.369/.460 for 2012.

The system does project a decline, but one of playing time and defense. They see him losing a few runs a year with the glove as well as 30-40 PAs a year due to injury and fatigue. Only in 2013 and beyond does his bat start to go downhill.

If he's a well-above average hitting 2B today, he'll still be above average in 2012. How much his glove declines is debatable. It'll be interesting to see PECOTA with Clay's new play-by-play defensive data incorporated.

But right now I think there are pretty good odds that Roberts is a MLB-average 2B in 2012. 2013 maybe not. But he's probably going to be worth a 4/40 type deal. In the market of a year ago he was probably going to get 4/60 or more.

[NCRaven]

I'm not sure that's true. Look at his PECOTAs. The 2009s aren't out yet, but the 2008s are useful, since he exceeded his 2008 weighted means by a little bit. They project out the rest of his career. And they think that his most likely outcome is to stay almost the same offensive player he is right now through 2012. A projected .281/.371/.459 line for 2009, and .281/.369/.460 for 2012.

The system does project a decline, but one of playing time and defense. They see him losing a few runs a year with the glove as well as 30-40 PAs a year due to injury and fatigue. Only in 2013 and beyond does his bat start to go downhill.

If he's a well-above average hitting 2B today, he'll still be above average in 2012. How much his glove declines is debatable. It'll be interesting to see PECOTA with Clay's new play-by-play defensive data incorporated.

But right now I think there are pretty good odds that Roberts is a MLB-average 2B in 2012. 2013 maybe not. But he's probably going to be worth a 4/40 type deal. In the market of a year ago he was probably going to get 4/60 or more.

Good stuff. Thanks for the research.

[Mackus]

But right now I think there are pretty good odds that Roberts is a MLB-average 2B in 2012. 2013 maybe not.

I'm fine with that assessment, its pretty close to my own. I have no problems paying him $12M in 2012 when he's worth half that or so if it means getting him in 2010 and 2011. What I have a problem with is paying him $10-12M in both 2012 and 2013 when I think he's not likely to even be a guy we are happy to have starting for us in 2013.

Fortunately with the way the market is, giving him that 4th (or 5th depending how you look at it) year is well out of the question. If he's gonna get the security right now and lock in, its going to be closer to on our terms than on his terms. He could certainly gamble that the market will bounce back and he'll get better than a 3/$30M deal next year as a FA, but that is a very big risk for him to take judging by what Orlando Hudson is gonna have to settle for this offseason. I think he's making a financial mistake if he doesn't take a 3/$30M type extension from the Orioles right now.

Of course he may not care that much about the money and just want to win, in which case I don't really think its a mistake for him to want out of Baltimore. We're not terribly likely to compete, at least when compared to teams he may sign with next offseason, over the course of his next contract, although I think we've got a shot.

[tywright]

Signing BRob is like signing Ray Ray...his value transcends the play on the field and they have the background and work ethic to outplay and overachieve their counterparts who are the same age. Basically they aren't going to breakdown like other guys their age.

[Frobby]

I'm not sure that's true. Look at his PECOTAs. The 2009s aren't out yet, but the 2008s are useful, since he exceeded his 2008 weighted means by a little bit. They project out the rest of his career. And they think that his most likely outcome is to stay almost the same offensive player he is right now through 2012. A projected .281/.371/.459 line for 2009, and .281/.369/.460 for 2012.

The system does project a decline, but one of playing time and defense. They see him losing a few runs a year with the glove as well as 30-40 PAs a year due to injury and fatigue. Only in 2013 and beyond does his bat start to go downhill.

If he's a well-above average hitting 2B today, he'll still be above average in 2012. How much his glove declines is debatable. It'll be interesting to see PECOTA with Clay's new play-by-play defensive data incorporated.

But right now I think there are pretty good odds that Roberts is a MLB-average 2B in 2012. 2013 maybe not. But he's probably going to be worth a 4/40 type deal. In the market of a year ago he was probably going to get 4/60 or more.

This is encouraging. Does PECOTA's methodology of projecting offense take into account the position the player plays? I.e., if 2B tend to decline offensively faster than players at other positions, does PECOTA recognize this?

By the way:

Orioles president Andy MacPhail told me earlier today that "each side is moving closer to the other" in the Brian Roberts contract negotiations.

Asked if he's more optimistic now that he's been previously, MacPhail said, "I'd say so. We're not there yet, but we're moving toward each other, which is a good sign."

http://www.masnsports.com/index_blog_roch.html

[Fan4Life]

I think he will get 4 years, but not a 10M a year.

4 years 36M gets it done.

This is where I am as well. I'm not sure of the specific numbers, but we may give that 4th year if the average per is reduced.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Right, that is the opinion of most people. 4 years starting 2009 is ok, we'll probably only have to eat one year of that contract, the risk will be mitigated a bit. 4 years starting in 2010 is a mistake, since he's gonna be an albatross for the final two years most likely.

Albatross?

What an awful word to use to describe Brian Roberts:hearts::002_scry:!!!!

[LookitsPuck]

Signing BRob is like signing Ray Ray...his value transcends the play on the field and they have the background and work ethic to outplay and overachieve their counterparts who are the same age. Basically they aren't going to breakdown like other guys their age.

Meh, sometimes you just need to move on. No need to overpay for veteranosity and all this jazz, if you can better spend that money elsewhere or even trade said player for more talent that you could get if he walked.

FWIW, don't sign Ray Lewis, either. </flame shield on>

[Sports Guy]

I'm not sure that's true. Look at his PECOTAs. The 2009s aren't out yet, but the 2008s are useful, since he exceeded his 2008 weighted means by a little bit. They project out the rest of his career. And they think that his most likely outcome is to stay almost the same offensive player he is right now through 2012. A projected .281/.371/.459 line for 2009, and .281/.369/.460 for 2012.

The system does project a decline, but one of playing time and defense. They see him losing a few runs a year with the glove as well as 30-40 PAs a year due to injury and fatigue. Only in 2013 and beyond does his bat start to go downhill.

If he's a well-above average hitting 2B today, he'll still be above average in 2012. How much his glove declines is debatable. It'll be interesting to see PECOTA with Clay's new play-by-play defensive data incorporated.

But right now I think there are pretty good odds that Roberts is a MLB-average 2B in 2012. 2013 maybe not. But he's probably going to be worth a 4/40 type deal. In the market of a year ago he was probably going to get 4/60 or more.

If you gauge his value on paper, you may be right...But if you gauge it with reality, how the market is and how second baseman are looked at around the league, no way he gets either of those contracts.

[Sports Guy]

Signing BRob is like signing Ray Ray...his value transcends the play on the field and they have the background and work ethic to outplay and overachieve their counterparts who are the same age. Basically they aren't going to breakdown like other guys their age.

And much like Ray Ray, overpaying for him would be stupid.

[El Gordo]

If a guy is projected to be an .830 OPS hitter for the nexr 4 years I don't see how people can be so certain he is going to drop below .750 OPS in the space of one year.And even at .75O OPS in 2013 he would be worth around $8 mm in performance.

[tywright]

And much like Ray Ray, overpaying for him would be stupid.

Overpaying Ray Ray is more detrimental to the Ravens than the O's overpaying for BRob though.

[LookitsPuck]

If a guy is projected to be an .830 OPS hitter for the nexr 4 years I don't see how people can be so certain he is going to drop below .750 OPS in the space of one year.And even at .75O OPS in 2013 he would be worth around $8 mm in performance.

Oh, you mean how Bobby Abreu's 842 OPS (120 OPS+) was only worth $5 million?