BRob News to Come on Thursday?

[Dipper9]

And much like Ray Ray, overpaying for him would be stupid.

I am not trying to be a jerk here, but I'd rather have 3-4 good years of Roberts and a kinda bad year in year 5 than to lose him for nothing and have a similar situation at second than we did at shortstop last year.

Fortunately for those of us who want Roberts to extend, it certainly appears we will get that wish.

[Sports Guy]

Overpaying Ray Ray is more detrimental to the Ravens than the O's overpaying for BRob though.

True but each decision would still be poor.

Either way, I don't see AM caving to 4 years(unless he tears up 2009, which i doubt), so the contract won't end up being that terrible.

[Sports Guy]

I am not trying to be a jerk here, but I'd rather have 3-4 good years of Roberts and a kinda bad year in year 5 than to lose him for nothing and have a similar situation at second than we did at shortstop last year.

Fortunately for those of us who want Roberts to extend, it certainly appears we will get that wish.

Second baseman aren't that hard to find...If you are saying you don't think we will have a good second baseman for a while, that tells me you don't have much faith in AM.

[Dipper9]

Second baseman aren't that hard to find...If you are saying you don't think we will have a good second baseman for a while, that tells me you don't have much faith in AM.

No, it tells you that I think we've traded most of our valuable chips, and that I value Roberts more than I value two draft picks or some second rate trade. Its not MacPhail I don't have faith in, its the down market.

[El Gordo]

Oh, you mean how Bobby Abreu's 842 OPS (120 OPS+) was only worth $5 million?

I'm talking abut $ value in wins not current market value. BRob will very likely be worth around $70mm in wins over the next 5 years. At a cost of $48 mm or so he would hardly be an albatross. And who knows how thw market value of contracts will change over the next 5 years. One would hope it eventually improves.

[Sports Guy]

No, it tells you that I think we've traded most of our valuable chips, and that I value Roberts more than I value two draft picks or some second rate trade. Its not MacPhail I don't have faith in, its the down market.

None of this really addresses the idea that a second baseman could be acquired.

We still have plenty of pieces to trade...We could still go after guys who have perhaps fallen out of favor but could still be good long term...like say a Rickie Weeks.

And its not just the lost picks or what you lose in trade....Its also the money you have now to do other things...that is the aspect everyone overlooks.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm talking abut $ value in wins not current market value. BRob will very likely be worth around $70mm in wins over the next 5 years. At a cost of $48 mm or so he would hardly be an albatross. And who knows how thw market value of contracts will change over the next 5 years. One would hope it eventually improves.

You'll have to explain to me what the difference between market value and win value - win value is derived from the contracts given to players, and then calculated according to their wins, no?

He's only worth $70m in wins if the market returns to its previous win valuation...

...but that doesn't appear to be happening just yet...

[jets4ever]

In reality, Roberts should be solid for at least 2-3 more years. We won't begin to have to worry about this until that 4th or 5th year, if at all. No sense worrying about this right now. Lets just get him signed and move on.

I couldn't agree more.

[Dipper9]

None of this really addresses the idea that a second baseman could be acquired.

We still have plenty of pieces to trade...We could still go after guys who have perhaps fallen out of favor but could still be good long term...like say a Rickie Weeks.

And its not just the lost picks or what you lose in trade....Its also the money you have now to do other things...that is the aspect everyone overlooks.

I understand you're point, but lets break down the "long term" club.

1b: Nothing definite. Maybe Snyder. Maybe Reimold. Need money for 1st.

2b: Roberts (lets take worst case and say 4/40 extension)

ss: No long term commitment. Need money for ss.

3b: Maybe Snyder. Maybe Rowell. May need money for 3B.

C: Wieters for 6 years. No additional money needed.

RF: Markakis for 6 years. 66 million tied up.

CF: Jones. Not sure how long his contract is, but we'll probably extend him anyway.

LF: Pie/Scott. Long term committments for not much money.

Pitching: Guthrie will need a new contract.

The Big Three are tied up for a while for little money.

So, we'll need money for 1st, ss, and 3b long term. The big argument today has been 3 years or 4. So lets say we go 4. That's 10 million dollars we lose over a 5 year period. That money is not going to stop us from filling the three holes we have on the team. Unless you disagree?

[DrungoHazewood]

None of this really addresses the idea that a second baseman could be acquired.

We still have plenty of pieces to trade...We could still go after guys who have perhaps fallen out of favor but could still be good long term...like say a Rickie Weeks.

And its not just the lost picks or what you lose in trade....Its also the money you have now to do other things...that is the aspect everyone overlooks.

You mean the same Rickie Weeks who was worth less than two WAR last year? If Brian Roberts declines at half a win a year he'll hit 2008 Rickie Weeks level in 2013.

I think you seriously underestimate the value of having an average to above-average, leadoff-hitting second baseman who happens to be the team's most popular player locked up to a deal signed in a market dip. I strongly feel that a 4/40 deal for Roberts signed today will look like a bargain in 2012.

[El Gordo]

You mean the same Rickie Weeks who was worth less than two WAR last year? If Brian Roberts declines at half a win a year he'll hit 2008 Rickie Weeks level in 2013.

I think you seriously underestimate the value of having an average to above-average, leadoff-hitting second baseman who happens to be the team's most popular player locked up to a deal signed in a market dip. I strongly feel that a 4/40 deal for Roberts signed today will look like a bargain in 2012.

Another way of looking at it is, in terms of the few last years' market, 4/40 is a bargain.

[Mackus]

I think you have to be a bit nervous about his production in 2012, and very dubious of his production in 2013. How many AS 2B are there at age 34 and 35? How many are still above average?

I fully agree that the risk of him being overpaid in 2012 is well worth the benefit of having him around in 2010 and 2011. I just don't think that the risk of him being overpaid in 2012 plus the risk of him being vastly overpaid in 2013 is worth the benefit of having him in 2010 and 2011.

I its through 2012, I really have absolutely no problems with it. And it we were in a higher market, I wouldn't mind the 2013 year as much as the value would be worth it early on. But right now we could sign a similar guy in Orlando Hudson for a 2/$8M contract or maybe even less. It just doesn't make sense to guarantee 3 times that much annually to Roberts over the next 5 years.

[Sports Guy]

You'll have to explain to me what the difference between market value and win value - win value is derived from the contracts given to players, and then calculated according to their wins, no?

He's only worth $70m in wins if the market returns to its previous win valuation...

...but that doesn't appear to be happening just yet...

I like the stats that say so and so was worth this in 2008....It is an interesting stat to go off of and judge value.

The problem with that stat is it pretty much ignores the market and it ignores the simple economic point of, you are worth what someone will pay for you.

Yes, BRob has been worth such and such over the past 5 years...But I guarantee you that if he asked for that amount of money 5 years ago, he would have been laughed out hysterically.

Its just not realistic in terms of ACTUAL money.

[Sports Guy]

You mean the same Rickie Weeks who was worth less than two WAR last year? If Brian Roberts declines at half a win a year he'll hit 2008 Rickie Weeks level in 2013.

I think you seriously underestimate the value of having an average to above-average, leadoff-hitting second baseman who happens to be the team's most popular player locked up to a deal signed in a market dip. I strongly feel that a 4/40 deal for Roberts signed today will look like a bargain in 2012.

I don;t care if he is the most popular.

And I don't see him as an average to above average player from 2010-2013.

As Mackus said, I see him not being worth the contract for half of those years. Its really that simple.

I want the picks over him being extended and I would prefer to trade him.

Personally, I would wait right now...See how the market develops for his trade services in July and see where the economy is taking the game heading into the offseason of 2009...At that point, you can talk, if not before then.

I don't see the reason to get this done now other than to appease the fans.

Now, if they end up giving him a 3 year deal, it won't be the worst thing in the world...I just wouldn't do it, unless it entailed ripping up 2009 and offering him more money.

[Frobby]

If you gauge his value on paper, you may be right...But if you gauge it with reality, how the market is and how second baseman are looked at around the league, no way he gets either of those contracts.

I'd be careful about guessing what next year's market will be like. I think the O's walked into the 2004-05 offseason expecting it to be a buyer's market like the 2003-04 offseason had been, and then they were caught flat-footed when it turned out there were a lot of aggressive bidders. Next winter could be even worse than this one (from the players' standpoint), or it could be much better.

I think Brian is in a unique spot among 2B. He's not a super-stud like Chase Utley or Jeff Kent in his prime, but he's not your run-of the mill "good hitter for a second baseman" either. He's a pretty ideal leadoff hitter who gets on base a lot, hits doubles and steals a lot of bases, and his defense is very solid. He's worth a fair amount.