2023 Orioles #1 Prospect Jackson Holliday - SS/2B

[now]

On 11/17/2023 at 5:38 AM, Sports Guy said:

I almost feel like the Basallo write up is more glowing.

Despite the high hit tool and OBP, I can't help but feel Holliday is overrated as an elite, #1 prospect. Maybe it's just that, of the 5 tools you might expect from such a lofty perch, the "above average" rating for speed, defense and homerun power just seems underwhelming, especially if his position ends up being 2B. I'm no expert but even judging by Tony's writeup, I find Basallo, Mayo and even Kjerstad more exciting. And I'm no chick either, but I guess this means I just dig the long ball.  On the other hand, Holliday's skills certainly complement the big boppers in the lineup. In that respect (and in terms of the catcher's hype as the second coming of the switch-hitting Jesus), Holliday seems to me in the same category as Adley Rutschman. Of course, as Tony also points out, the makeup is off the charts for both players so maybe that will prove the difference maker for these players to be truly elite, HOF talents as advertised. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

This is just ridiculous silly speculation. We have had zero indication that either gunner or Adley were willing to sign an extension.  This acts like they wanted to but the team refused. 

The mealy-mouthed statements by John Angelos on this topic don’t inspire a lot of confidence that the team has tried very hard to lock anybody up.  

“You will quickly see that when people talk about giving this player $200 million, that player $150 million, we would be so financially underwater that you'd have to raise the prices massively. Now, are people going to come and pay that? I don't know if we're at the limit, to your point.”

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/john-angelos-hints-orioles-wont-extend-young-stars-without-dramatically-raising-prices-at-the-ballpark/amp/

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, now said:

Despite the high hit tool and OBP, I can't help but feel Holliday is overrated as an elite, #1 prospect. Maybe it's just that, of the 5 tools you might expect from such a lofty perch, the "above average" rating for speed, defense and homerun power just seems underwhelming, especially if his position ends up being 2B. I'm no expert but even judging by Tony's writeup, I find Basallo, Mayo and even Kjerstad more exciting. And I'm no chick either, but I guess this means I just dig the long ball.  On the other hand, Holliday's skills certainly complement the big boppers in the lineup. In that respect (and in terms of the catcher's hype as the second coming of the switch-hitting Jesus), Holliday seems to me in the same category as Adley Rutschman. Of course, as Tony also points out, the makeup is off the charts for both players so maybe that will prove the difference maker for these players to be truly elite, HOF talents as advertised. 

Holliday made it thru 4 minor league levels in his first full season in the minors and was determined by experts to have the 3rd best 1st minor league seasons in 30 years.  What would have impressed you.  Look at Holliday's size compared to his father, could Jackson possibly gain some size and strength or is he physically capped out?

[now]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Holliday made it thru 4 minor league levels in his first full season in the minors and was determined by experts to have the 3rd best 1st minor league seasons in 30 years.  What would have impressed you.  Look at Holliday's size compared to his father, could Jackson possibly gain some size and strength or is he physically capped out?

I'm not saying the experts (incl. Tony) or the rankings are wrong. So I guess it's just caution for myself and others not to get too overboard with expectations. Especially when the projections and performance aren't earth shattering for every tool:

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/70
Game Power: 40/55
Raw Power: 40/60
Run: 55/55
Defense: 45/55

Most Likely Future Role: Starting 1st Division SS or 2B
Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS, multiple All-Star appearances

I admit, Tony never said HOF either, even as ceiling. So maybe JH is no Acuna or Soto, Mantle or Honus Wagner. That's okay to have a multiple All-Star second-baseman (like Adley at catcher). I guess our eyes get so big over prospect hype (Wieters, Bundy), that it's easy to get those hopes dampened when they're not Jesus or Superman after all, just damn good ballplayers.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, now said:

I'm not saying the experts (incl. Tony) or the rankings are wrong. So I guess it's just caution for myself and others not to get too overboard with expectations. Especially when the projections and performance aren't earth shattering for every tool:

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/70
Game Power: 40/55
Raw Power: 40/60
Run: 55/55
Defense: 45/55

Most Likely Future Role: Starting 1st Division SS or 2B
Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS, multiple All-Star appearances

I admit, Tony never said HOF either, even as ceiling. So maybe JH is no Acuna or Soto, Mantle or Honus Wagner. That's okay to have a multiple All-Star second-baseman (like Adley at catcher). I guess our eyes get so big over prospect hype (Wieters, Bundy), that it's easy to get those hopes dampened when they're not Jesus or Superman after all, just damn good ballplayers.

I think I understand where you’re coming from.  Holliday doesn’t have one plus, plus tool EXCEPT the future score on his hit tool.  He’s fast but not a burner.   He doesn’t have the arm of Mayo or Henderson.  BUT, if you look at the 70 hit tool and the 60 future power that’s a pretty exciting combination for a player who’s just average to above average in the other categories.

All reports are that he can play ML SS.  If he winds up at 2B for the Orioles that doesn’t make him a lesser prospect.

[Malike]

On 11/17/2023 at 1:48 PM, Ripken said:

They missed the boat on Adley and maybe even Gunnar on this.  Gunnar might still do a 7 year deal.  I sure hope they do better with Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo.  9 or 10 year deals for some, or all, of them if the projections are truly that special.  It's working great for Atlanta and others.

This is part of the problem. When players like Acuna fire their agents because they've signed bad deals and guys like Boras are advising his clients to not sign what he labels "snuff contracts". I don't think you're going to see things like you have in ATL right now, in the near future.

[OriolesMagic83]

27 minutes ago, now said:

I'm not saying the experts (incl. Tony) or the rankings are wrong. So I guess it's just caution for myself and others not to get too overboard with expectations. Especially when the projections and performance aren't earth shattering for every tool:

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/70
Game Power: 40/55
Raw Power: 40/60
Run: 55/55
Defense: 45/55

Most Likely Future Role: Starting 1st Division SS or 2B
Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS, multiple All-Star appearances

I admit, Tony never said HOF either, even as ceiling. So maybe JH is no Acuna or Soto, Mantle or Honus Wagner. That's okay to have a multiple All-Star second-baseman (like Adley at catcher). I guess our eyes get so big over prospect hype (Wieters, Bundy), that it's easy to get those hopes dampened when they're not Jesus or Superman after all, just damn good ballplayers.

I have high hopes for Holliday and it's possible he won't even be an All Star, I just hate to see him limited when he has done nothing but succeed at everything he has done.  I know a lot of people have already marked him down as having limited power because no one smaller can ever hit for power even though it has happened many times in MLB.  I guess we'll see what the truth is starting in 2024.  In my wildest projection of his progress when he was drafted, I never thought he would have a chance to make the opening day 2024 roster. 

[now]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think I understand where you’re coming from.  Holliday doesn’t have one plus, plus tool EXCEPT the future score on his hit tool.  He’s fast but not a burner.   He doesn’t have the arm of Mayo or Henderson.  BUT, if you look at the 70 hit tool and the 60 future power that’s a pretty exciting combination for a player who’s just average to above average in the other categories.

All reports are that he can play ML SS.  If he winds up at 2B for the Orioles that doesn’t make him a lesser prospect.

You've highlighted the main limitations for me. If he can reach the 60 power that's a game changer.

The SS/2B issue is lesser, I guess, but SS is the more premium position, or one where you hope to see more premium tools. On the other hand, the Orioles are exceptional in having, it appears, three other premium defensive SS options already (Mateo, Henderson, Ortiz), so Holliday at 2B is a super consolation prize if that's what it comes to. 

[Frobby]

On 11/17/2023 at 1:48 PM, Ripken said:

They missed the boat on Adley and maybe even Gunnar on this.  Gunnar might still do a 7 year deal.  I sure hope they do better with Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo.  9 or 10 year deals for some, or all, of them if the projections are truly that special.  It's working great for Atlanta and others.

How’s it working for the White Sox?  Other than Atlsnta, they’re the team that’s done this the most.   

[Ripken]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How’s it working for the White Sox?  Other than Atlsnta, they’re the team that’s done this the most.   

Chicago is a mess, no doubt.  You have to be smart about the player(s) you choose.  Williams and Hahn were fired after many years of poor teams and questionable decisions.  The JRod contract looks great and there are others.  Some of those deals won't work out.  I would feel great about a long term deal for Gunnar right now.  I believe in his talent and in him as a person.

Of course, despite reading comprehension issues from others, I never suggested whether the Orioles tried (or not) to extend anyone.  I also never suggested if there were players here who wanted a long term deal.  All I said was, no long term extensions have happened.  Where that pertains to Adley, who turns 26 before the season starts, and Gunnar, who just won ROY, it certainly seems like long term extensions for either will not happen here; they are getting to an age and/or success level where the Orioles won't pay them.  

Edited November 18, 2023 by Ripken

[Malike]

13 minutes ago, Ripken said:

Chicago is a mess, no doubt.  You have to be smart about the player(s) you choose.  Williams and Hahn were fired after many years of poor teams and questionable decisions.  The JRod contract looks great and there are others.  Some of those deals won't work out.  I would feel great about a long term deal for Gunnar right now.  I believe in his talent and in him as a person.

Of course, despite reading comprehension issues from others, I never suggested whether the Orioles tried (or not) to extend anyone.  I also never suggested if there were players here who wanted a long term deal.  All I said was, no long term extensions have happened.  Where that pertains to Adley, who turns 26 before the season starts, and Gunnar, who just won ROY, it certainly seems like long term extensions for either will not happen here; they are getting to an age and/or success level where the Orioles won't pay them.  

When you say the team "missed the boat on Adley and maybe even Gunnar on this", you are in fact implying that something could have happened but did not. You don't get to say others have reading comprehension issues when you make a statement like this. "Missing the boat" literally means a missed opportunity, people saying there is no evidence of an opportunity do not have reading comprehension issues.

Edited November 18, 2023 by Malike

[Ripken]

8 minutes ago, Malike said:

When you say the team "missed the boat on Adley and maybe even Gunnar on this", you are in fact implying that something could have happened but did not. You don't get to say others have reading comprehension issues when you make a statement like this. "Missing the boat" literally means a missed opportunity, people saying there is no evidence of an opportunity do not have reading comprehension issues.

Right.  Something could have happened but didn't.  It doesn't imply why it didn't happen.

[Frobby]

I don’t feel the O’s have missed the boat on anyone necessarily.  The vast majority of extensions occur after the player is Arb-eligible.   There are about 30-35 active extension contracts that were done before the player was Arb-eligible.   Details here.  Obviously, the further into a career an extension is signed, and the more successful the player is, the more expendive the extension becomes.  So, there are reasons to try to get some extensions done early if you have confidence in the plsyer.   Of course, they player has to be interested.   

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think I understand where you’re coming from.  Holliday doesn’t have one plus, plus tool EXCEPT the future score on his hit tool.  He’s fast but not a burner.   He doesn’t have the arm of Mayo or Henderson.  BUT, if you look at the 70 hit tool and the 60 future power that’s a pretty exciting combination for a player who’s just average to above average in the other categories.

All reports are that he can play ML SS.  If he winds up at 2B for the Orioles that doesn’t make him a lesser prospect.

Does Corey Seager have any plus plus tools aside from hit? Trea Turner? 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Does Corey Seager have any plus plus tools aside from hit? Trea Turner? 

Trea Turner averages 42 SB/162.

His 2023 baserunning run value and sprint speed was in the 99th percentile.