Santander for Bieber

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Bieber 1.8 WAR in 21 starts.  Santander 3.0 in 153 games.  Should be pretty close IF Bieber can make 30 starts like he did in 2022.

 

He doesn't keep trending downward?

[Sports Guy]

Santander was worth .5 fWAR more last year…in a season where Bieber missed a good chunk of time.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

He doesn't keep trending downward?

What trend?  In 2021, his fWAR was 2.6.  In 2022, it was 4.8. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

He doesn't keep trending downward?

That’s a risk.  He’s 28 and his fastball velocity was the same in 23 as 22.  Almost any pitcher available comes with some kind of risk.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Like when you said Santander was more valuable than Snell?

I said I didn't like Snell's risk profile.  I was right about it 2019-2022, and wrong about it 2018 and 2023.

Bieber isn't Snell.

So you're on the record then for Bieber being more valuable next year than Santander.  Duly noted.
Odds don't seem in your favor.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I said I didn't like Snell's risk profile.  I was right about it 2019-2022, and wrong about it 2018 and 2023.

Bieber isn't Snell.

So you're on the record then for Bieber being more valuable next year than Santander.  Duly noted.
Odds don't seem in your favor.

Last year was the first time that Santander had more WAR than Bieber and Bieber missed 1/3 of the season.  So, sure, if Bieber can’t pitch and Santander plays a full season odds are in Santander’s favor.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

That’s a risk.  He’s 28 and his fastball velocity was the same in 23 as 22.  Almost any pitcher available comes with some kind of risk.

You can't just dismiss risk with a generic "everything has risk" statement.  I could get hit by a bus tomorrow, I shouldn't start smoking cigarettes tonight.

This goes for @Sports Guy as well.

His K rate has almost HALVED since 2020.  HIs performance is basically going in one direction.  He missed time with an elbow injury this year in July.  He made two starts after that.  That's a lot of red flags.  They can't be ignored and just waved away as "everything has risk" just for the sake of doing something.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I said I didn't like Snell's risk profile.  I was right about it 2019-2022, and wrong about it 2018 and 2023.

Bieber isn't Snell.

So you're on the record then for Bieber being more valuable next year than Santander.  Duly noted.
Odds don't seem in your favor.

Well, you are completely wrong about his profile not being good 2019-2022. Literally nothing backs that up unless you want to ignore stats and performance.

I’m saying it’s an incredibly foolish statement to say it’s  an easy choice to say Santander will out produce him. There is no validity behind that statement.

That’s another way of saying it’s not even close…and sorry, but that’s really dumb.

Santander’s best season by fWAR is the equivalent Bieber’s worst full season.  So, unless Bieber is going to get hurt next year (and btw, even though it’s been better the last few years, AS doesn’t have a great history of health either), it’s very unlikely that Santander posts a higher WAR.

 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Last year was the first time that Santander had more WAR than Bieber and Bieber missed 1/3 of the season.  So, sure, if Bieber can’t pitch and Santander plays a full season odds are in Santander’s favor.

He pitched 11 innings in the second half last year.  It's a fair question.

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well, you are completely wrong about his profile not being good 2019-2022. Literally nothing backs that up unless you want to ignore stats and performance.

I’m saying it’s an incredibly foolish statement to say it’s  an easy choice to say Santander will out produce him. There is no validity behind that statement.

That’s another way of saying it’s not even close…and sorry, but that’s really dumb.

Santander’s best season by fWAR is the equivalent Bieber’s worst full season.  So, unless Bieber is going to get hurt next year (and btw, even though it’s been better the last few years, AS doesn’t have a great history of health either), it’s very unlikely that Santander posts a higher WAR.

 

Snell was extremely mediocre from 2019-2022.  Either you don't understand what I'm saying, or you don't know Snell's career.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

You can't just dismiss risk with a generic "everything has risk" statement.  I could get hit by a bus tomorrow, I shouldn't start smoking cigarettes tonight.

This goes for @Sports Guy as well.

His K rate has almost HALVED since 2020.  HIs performance is basically going in one direction.  He missed time with an elbow injury this year in July.  He made two starts after that.  That's a lot of red flags.  They can't be ignored and just waved away as "everything has risk" just for the sake of doing something.

So to be clear, if we wake up tomorrow and this deal happens, you will feel Elias made a huge mistake and is wrong for making the trade?

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

So to be clear, if we wake up tomorrow and this deal happens, you will feel Elias made a huge mistake and is wrong for making the trade?

Huge mistake?  No.

Wrong?  No.

Not what I would have done?  Yes.

[24fps]

Geez.  With all the strawmen currently running around, I hope nobody is smoking.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

Snell was extremely mediocre from 2019-2022.  Either you don't understand what I'm saying, or you don't know Snell's career.

 

Taking out 2020 (ie not a full season), Snell averaged a 2.8 fWAR.  In that time frame, the WORST K rate he had was 11.3. The worst FIP he had was 3.8 and he had 2 other years where the FIP was under 3.35.

His 2021 ERA+ was only 92, but it was 103, 127 and 112 the other 3 years.

His swingstr% was great and he had a lot of great statcast numbers for those years.

So, calling him mediocre is both foolish and factually wrong unless being above average or better is your definition of mediocre.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He pitched 11 innings in the second half last year.  It's a fair question.

Fair question.  Those 11 innings came at the end of the season.  I’m assuming he’s healthy heading into 2024.  I’m sure the O’s would perform due diligence.  No guarantees in baseball.